August 2021

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The SSTs across the tropical development areas of the Atlantic are still well above normal. The map I posted was just in reference to the local SSTs and more cooling sea breezes than last year. We are already off to another much faster than normal start to the tropical season. 

 

 

I understand but it's slowed down considerably from earlier in the season and we're now well behind where we were last year.  It looks like the average track this year will also be to our south, as the dominant track has been towards Florida and the GOM?  The other thing I noticed is a lot of these systems developing have been weak.  Minimal TS.

 

[bluewave]

48 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I understand but it's slowed down considerably from earlier in the season and we're now well behind where we were last year.  It looks like the average track this year will also be to our south, as the dominant track has been towards Florida and the GOM?

 

The interruption from earlier in the season was MJO related. Now the MJO has now come around to the more active phases for the Atlantic Basin. Last year it took until we reached the L storm for the first major hurricane. 
 

[jets]

If Td 8 strengthens more and more it could get a bit interesting towards the weekend 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The interruption from earlier in the season was MJO related. Now the MJO has now come around to the more active phases for the Atlantic Basin. Last year it took until we reached the L storm for the first major hurricane. 
 

It will be interesting to see if we get up to the projected numbers (15+ TS, 10+ H, 5+ MH) and if this is more of a Gulf season, a Florida season or an East coast season.  Do you have any thoughts on that, Chris?

 

[SACRUS]

78/62 and mostly cloudy.  Lucked out with mostly sunny and a gorgeous day on sunday as now any sunshine will be limited the through the week.  Warm and humid but clouds in the way of any heat Tue (8/17) through Fri (8/20).  Remnants of Fred and hung up front can bring some real rain totals Wed- Thu.  Ridge is still near by east coast with higher heights so once we do clear this coming weekend Sat (8/21) - Mon (8/23) looks like the sun will bring heat and next shot at 90s.  Beyond there as we get into next week (8/23) still warmer and some stronger heat may greaxe the region then.

 

Warm and wet and cloudy the theme the next 5 days.

[SACRUS]

11 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Heat is over for now.  Next bout of heat begins Aug 20?

 

Looks possible if we can clear/dry out still warm air overall but clouds will clamp down on anything exceeding 90 / upper 80s.

[uncle W]

the heat will return...90's for everyone...

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It will be interesting to see if we get up to the projected numbers (15+ TS, 10+ H, 5+ MH) and if this is more of a Gulf season, a Florida season or an East coast season.  Do you have any thoughts on that, Chris?

 

The one thing that stands out since the mid 90s is how consistent the storm tracks have been. All our tropical systems since then have made landfall first to our south before impacting our area. This was the case last year and again this year with Elsa. Fred’s remnants will impact the region this week after coming ashore in the Gulf. Sandy was one of the most extreme events in our local history making the sharp left turn into Southern NJ. Long Island and New England haven’t seen a hurricane eye cross our shoreline since Bob in 1991 and Gloria in 1985. Before that we had Belle in 1976 and all the storms from 1938 into the 1950s. The main question is why this type of hurricane track has become so rare? Maybe the WAR and blocking has become so strong, that this has forced storms more to our SW for landfalls. So it will be interesting to see when this type of hurricane track makes a return.

[Gravity Wave]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The one thing that stands out since the mid 90s is how consistent the storm tracks have been. All our tropical systems since then have made landfall first to our south before impacting our area. This was the case last year and again this year with Elsa. Fred’s remnants will impact the region this week after coming ashore in the Gulf. Sandy was one of the most extreme events in our local history making the sharp left turn into Southern NJ. Long Island and New England hasn’t seen a hurricane eye cross our shoreline  since Bob in 1991 and Gloria in 1985. Before that we had Belle in 1976 and all the storms from 1938 into the 1950s. The main question is why this type of hurricane track has become so rare? Maybe the WAR and blocking has become so strong, that this has forced storms more to our SW for landfalls. So it will be interesting to see when this type of hurricane track makes a return.

Growing up I always thought hurricane landfalls in LI/New England were extremely rare, but history indicates it's more like we're just in an extended drought. The WAR being too overpowering for storms to make landfall north of NC makes some intuitive sense, but we've still seen plenty of classic OTS recurves over the years. I think the more likely explanation is we've just been lucky, and as with all weather luck it's guaranteed to run out sooner or later.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The one thing that stands out since the mid 90s is how consistent the storm tracks have been. All our tropical systems since then have made landfall first to our south before impacting our area. This was the case last year and again this year with Elsa. Fred’s remnants will impact the region this week after coming ashore in the Gulf. Sandy was one of the most extreme events in our local history making the sharp left turn into Southern NJ. Long Island and New England hasn’t seen a hurricane eye cross our shoreline  since Bob in 1991 and Gloria in 1985. Before that we had Belle in 1976 and all the storms from 1938 into the 1950s. The main question is why this type of hurricane track has become so rare? Maybe the WAR and blocking has become so strong, that this has forced storms more to our SW for landfalls. So it will be interesting to see when this type of hurricane track makes a return.

Would you say that this new track actually has more impact on us than the old one did? I don't recall the kind of damage we've seen in Sandy happen in our region from any of the previous storms I've witnessed (Gloria and Bob.)  Even that storm we had last August (I forgot its name) had winds stronger than I ever saw in either Gloria or Bob.  The rainfall is less but the winds have been higher.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

30 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

Growing up I always thought hurricane landfalls in LI/New England were extremely rare, but history indicates it's more like we're just in an extended drought. The WAR being too overpowering for storms to make landfall north of NC makes some intuitive sense, but we've still seen plenty of classic OTS recurves over the years. I think the more likely explanation is we've just been lucky, and as with all weather luck it's guaranteed to run out sooner or later.

another thing is the rarity of having anything higher than a Cat 3 north of NC.  When was the last time anything more than a Cat 3 made landfall in NC or points north?

 

[lee59]

I think we will find going forward that we may get further into the alphabet  before we have our first hurricane. The reason is because we name sub tropical systems and very weak systems. Springtime is when storms like this seem to be named and you have to wait for the water temperatures to warm up properly to support a real hurricane.

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Would you say that this new track actually has more impact on us than the old one did? I don't recall the kind of damage we've seen in Sandy happen in our region from any of the previous storms I've witnessed (Gloria and Bob.)  Even that storm we had last August (I forgot its name) had winds stronger than I ever saw in either Gloria or Bob.  The rainfall is less but the winds have been higher.

 

 

Sandy had much more impact than the other hurricanes of the last 100 years from the Jersey Shore to Western Suffolk. The 1938 hurricane really focused its worst damage from Central and Eastern Suffolk up into New England. There was a long gap in hurricanes directly landfalling from Long Island to New England between 1893 and 1938.The period from 1938 to 1961 had a high amount of directly landfalling hurricanes on Long Island and New England. So we have seen extended periods when landfalls concentrated in certain areas. The big challenge  is tying to figure out a shift before it actually occurs. 

[lee59]

54 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

Growing up I always thought hurricane landfalls in LI/New England were extremely rare, but history indicates it's more like we're just in an extended drought. The WAR being too overpowering for storms to make landfall north of NC makes some intuitive sense, but we've still seen plenty of classic OTS recurves over the years. I think the more likely explanation is we've just been lucky, and as with all weather luck it's guaranteed to run out sooner or later.

I think things just have been a little unusual since Bob. We had Sandy that was as bad as any hurricane that came ashore on Long Island, even though it did not make landfall here. We have had to tropical systems also in Irene and Isaias. So in the past 30 years we had one major storm and 2 tropical systems. Between 1962 until Bob there was only Gloria as the major storm and Belle as less but still a Cat 1. Of course we always have those close calls or remnants that bring heavy rains or beach erosion.

[lee59]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Sandy had much more impact than the other hurricanes of the last 100 years from the Jersey Shore to Western Suffolk. The 1938 hurricane really focused its worst damage from Central and Eastern Suffolk up into New England. There was a long gap in hurricanes directly landfalling from Long Island to New England between 1893 and 1938.The period from 1938 to 1961 had a high amount of directly landfalling hurricanes on Long Island and New England. So we have seen extended periods when landfalls concentrated in certain areas. The big challenge  is tying to figure out a shift before it actually occurs. 

Yes 1938-1961 was very active. After some 20-25 years since the 1938 hurricane, weather folks kept saying how overdue we were for another major hurricane. It came, finally, in 2012 with Sandy. The interesting thing is Sandy never crossed Long Island but where it came ashore and the angle it came ashore at, was so unusual and the worst possible scenario for my area and NYC and of course the Jersey shore..

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

Yes 1938-1961 was very active. After some 20-25 years since the 1938 hurricane, weather folks kept saying how overdue we were for another major hurricane. It came, finally, in 2012 with Sandy. The interesting thing is Sandy never crossed Long Island but where it came ashore and the angle it came ashore at, was so unusual and the worst possible scenario for my area and NYC and of course the Jersey shore..

Sandy not crossing Long Island made the storm all that much more severe around NNJ, NYC and Western LI. The record blocking and trough phase put  us in the stronger RFQ for two high tide cycles. Our area got the weaker side of the 1938 hurricane since it tracked across Central Long Island up into New England. NYC also was in the RFQ (right front quadrant) with the 1821 hurricane. But that hurricane arrived at low tide.

[lee59]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Sandy not crossing Long Island made the storm all that much more severe around NNJ, NYC and Western LI. The record blocking and trough phase put  us in the stronger RFQ for two high tide cycles. Our area got the weaker side of the 1938 hurricane since it tracked across Central Long Island up into New England. NYC also was in the RFQ (right front quadrant) with the 1821 hurricane. But that hurricane arrived at low tide.

Yes Sandy certainly was unique and in a bad way for our immediate area. That 1938 hurricane definitely was worse over eastern areas but my stepfather was a cop in Greenwich Ct. when that storm hit. He was in the firehouse on RT.1 and there was an inlet across the street that was connected to Long Island Sound. He said water started to come into the firehouse and when he went outside folks were on top of their cars from a rapidly rising water surge.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Sandy had much more impact than the other hurricanes of the last 100 years from the Jersey Shore to Western Suffolk. The 1938 hurricane really focused its worst damage from Central and Eastern Suffolk up into New England. There was a long gap in hurricanes directly landfalling from Long Island to New England between 1893 and 1938.The period from 1938 to 1961 had a high amount of directly landfalling hurricanes on Long Island and New England. So we have seen extended periods when landfalls concentrated in certain areas. The big challenge  is tying to figure out a shift before it actually occurs. 

odd that 1893 and 1938 are rearrangements of the same number lol

what do you think causes these cyclic shifts?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Sandy not crossing Long Island made the storm all that much more severe around NNJ, NYC and Western LI. The record blocking and trough phase put  us in the stronger RFQ for two high tide cycles. Our area got the weaker side of the 1938 hurricane since it tracked across Central Long Island up into New England. NYC also was in the RFQ (right front quadrant) with the 1821 hurricane. But that hurricane arrived at low tide.

what about for western Long Island? was Sandy worse than 1821, 1893 or any of the others for us too?

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

what about for western Long Island? was Sandy worse than 1821, 1893 or any of the others for us too?

 

Water levels with Sandy were the highest on record for NYC and Western Long Island. The storm surge peaking at high tide made the difference. 1821 had stronger winds and a greater surge. But the arrival at low tide with lower sea levels of the era resulted in lower water levels than Sandy.

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/srep07366?proof=t%C2%A0

In summary, an inundation record covering the past ~300 years was reconstructed from sediment cores taken from New York City, NY. Deposits in the record correspond to storms known to have affected New York Harbor, including early historic storms in 1693, 1788 and 1821. Sedimentary analysis reveals only two deposits, those of Hurricane Sandy and the 1821 hurricane, with a median grain size in the sand range (>63 μm). While the Hurricane Sandy deposit was much thicker than the 1821 deposit, it had a smaller maximum grain size. This is consistent with historic accounts and SLOSH model results that suggest that the 1821 hurricane was a smaller (radius of maximum winds of 40 km) but significantly more intense storm (maximum 1-minute sustained wind speed of ~210 km/hr), compared to Hurricane Sandy with a radius of maximum winds of 160–200 km and 130 km/hr sustained winds at landfall. Sea-level rise and peak surge occurring at high tide combined to give Sandy record-breaking water levels, but the 1821 hurricane probably had a significantly larger overall storm surge. Our results indicate that extreme flood events like Hurricane Sandy are not uncommon within sedimentary records and that the true return interval for such extreme events to New York City is probably significantly shorter than current estimates.

[LibertyBell]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Water levels with Sandy were the highest on record for NYC and Western Long Island. The storm surge peaking at high tide made the difference. 1821 had stronger winds and a greater surge. But the arrival at low tide with lower sea levels of the era resulted in lower water levels than Sandy.

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/srep07366?proof=t%C2%A0

In summary, an inundation record covering the past ~300 years was reconstructed from sediment cores taken from New York City, NY. Deposits in the record correspond to storms known to have affected New York Harbor, including early historic storms in 1693, 1788 and 1821. Sedimentary analysis reveals only two deposits, those of Hurricane Sandy and the 1821 hurricane, with a median grain size in the sand range (>63 μm). While the Hurricane Sandy deposit was much thicker than the 1821 deposit, it had a smaller maximum grain size. This is consistent with historic accounts and SLOSH model results that suggest that the 1821 hurricane was a smaller (radius of maximum winds of 40 km) but significantly more intense storm (maximum 1-minute sustained wind speed of ~210 km/hr), compared to Hurricane Sandy with a radius of maximum winds of 160–200 km and 130 km/hr sustained winds at landfall. Sea-level rise and peak surge occurring at high tide combined to give Sandy record-breaking water levels, but the 1821 hurricane probably had a significantly larger overall storm surge. Our results indicate that extreme flood events like Hurricane Sandy are not uncommon within sedimentary records and that the true return interval for such extreme events to New York City is probably significantly shorter than current estimates.

With the coastal hugger/slightly inland track 1821 had how on earth was it a Cat 4 at Cape May and a Cat 3 when it made it up to NYC?  That was further west than Irene's track- how did it stay so strong?

 

[LibertyBell]

Wow so 1821 Hurricane was even bigger than 1693 which was thought to be a borderline Cat 4?

That small diameter of 40 km mentioned in that piece seems to indicate it was a pure tropical system at our latitude, is that why it maintained its strength on that track?

 

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

With the coastal hugger/slightly inland track 1821 had how on earth was it a Cat 4 at Cape May and a Cat 3 when it made it up to NYC?  That was further west than Irene's track- how did it stay so strong?

 

In reality, we will never know for sure what the exact storm categories were at each location. But a strong trough interaction and rapid forward motion probably helped maintain intensity longer  than usual. So it could have been a cat 2 around NYC and still had a cat 3 surge from earlier in the day. 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

In reality, we will never know for sure what the exact storm categories were at each location. But a strong trough interaction and rapid forward motion probably helped maintain intensity longer  than usual. So it could have been a cat 2 around NYC and still had a cat 3 surge from earlier in the day. 

So that might be the ideal scenario for maximum destruction (if that is what one wants?) The only piece missing was timing it with high tide?

 

[uncle W]

Donna in 1960 was remarkable because of the dmage it caused from Florida to Maine...I believe Central Park had a 70mph sustained wind but I could be wrong about that...

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, uncle W said:

Donna in 1960 was remarkable because of the dmage it caused from Florida to Maine...I believe Central Park had a 70mph sustained wind but I could be wrong about that...

I wouldn't be surprised, it had a 100 mile wide eye when it crossed Long Island and NYC on the fringes of that would've been in the eyewall for an extended amount of time (depending on forward speed of course.)

When was the last time a Cat 4 or higher hit NC or further to the north?

 

[LibertyBell]

This must have been a very rare purely tropical system when it hit up here, the tropical fanatics would give up their teeth to witness something like this again.  This puts 1938 to shame.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1821_Norfolk_and_Long_Island_hurricane

 

Meteorological history

A tropical cyclone was first observed on September 1 off the southeast coast of the United States. Initially, it was believed to be the same storm that struck Guadeloupe on the same day, though subsequent research indicated there were two separate storms.^[3] The hurricane tracked by the Bahamas while tracking generally northward, and it attained major hurricane status over the western Atlantic Ocean. As it approached the United States coastline, the hurricane was very intense, with winds estimated at over 135 mph (215 km/h) and potentially as strong as 160 mph (255 km/h), or a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale.^[4] Late on September 2, the hurricane made landfall near Wilmington, North Carolina and later turned to the northeast to cross the Pamlico Sound.^[5]

The hurricane accelerated northeastward, and passed over the Hampton Roads area early on September 3. After crossing the Chesapeake Bay, the cyclone traversed the Delmarva Peninsula near the Atlantic coastline,^[5] and at around 1500 UTC the eye passed directly over Cape Henlopen, Delaware; a thirty-minute period of calm was reported. It continued across the Delaware Bay and later passed over Cape May, New Jersey, where a fifteen-minute calm was reported.^[6] Modern researchers estimate it was a Category 3 or Category 4 hurricane upon striking New Jersey, one of the few hurricanes to hit the state.^[7][8] Moving ashore at very low tide,^[2] it paralleled the state's coastline just inland, and after exiting into Lower New York Bay the hurricane made landfall on New York City at around 1930 UTC on September 3; this makes it the only major hurricane to directly hit the city.^[1] A minimal hurricane in 1893 also made landfall on what later became part of New York City.^[9] One modern researcher estimates the hurricane was moving at a forward speed of 35 mph (55 km/h), and upon moving ashore had a pressure of 965 mbar.^[1] The hurricane continued northeastward through New England, and after entering Massachusetts on September 4 its exact path was unknown;^[10] one researcher estimated the cyclone tracked northeastward until losing its identity over southeastern Maine,^[5] while another assessed the storm as passing far to the west of Maine.^[11]

Based on the arrangement of effects in New England, meteorologist William C. Redfield deduced that the wind field and center of tropical cyclones are circular; previously the winds were believed to be in a straight line.^[11]

Impact

The continuous cataracts of rain swept impetuously along, darkening the expanse of vision and apparently confounding the heaven, earth and seas in a general chaos

The Norfolk Herald^[5]

In North Carolina, a powerful storm surge flooded large portions of Portsmouth Island; residents estimated the island would have been completely under water had the worst of the storm lasted for two more hours. Strong winds occurred across eastern North Carolina, resulting in at least 76 destroyed houses. Numerous people were killed in Currituck.^[6]

The strongest winds of the hurricane lasted for about an hour in southeastern Virginia, after which the storm rapidly abated. Several houses were completely destroyed, with many others receiving moderate to severe damage. The winds destroyed most of the roof of the courthouse, and uprooted trees across the region; fallen tree limbs damaged a stone bridge in Norfolk. The hurricane produced a strong storm surge along the Virginia coastline, which reached 10 feet (3 m) at Pungoteague on the Delmarva Peninsula. The storm surge, which reached several hundred yards inland, destroyed two bridges and flooded many warehouses along the Elizabeth River. Rough waves grounded the USS Guerriere and the USS Congress, and also destroyed several schooners and brigs. Along the eastern shore, the storm surge flooded barrier islands along the Atlantic coastline, causing severe crop damage and downing many trees. Several houses were destroyed, and at Pungoteague the impact of the hurricane was described as "unexampled destruction"; five people drowned in Chincoteague. Considered one of the most violent hurricanes on record in the Mid-Atlantic, the hurricane caused $200,000 in damage in Virginia (1821 USD, $3.1 million 2007 USD).^[5]

Gale-force winds affected the Delmarva Peninsula; on Poplar Island in Talbot County, Maryland, winds peaked at 1600 UTC on September 3.^[6] The strongest winds were confined to the Atlantic coastline, with outer rainbands producing heavy rainfall in Washington, D.C. and Baltimore.^[12] Fierce winds were observed in Cape Henlopen, Delaware, with the strongest gales occurring after the eye passed over the area.^[6]

Upon making landfall on Cape May, New Jersey, the cyclone produced a 5-foot (1.5 m) storm surge on the Delaware Bay side of the city.^[12] Lasting for several hours, the hurricane-force winds were described as "[blowing] with great violence",^[6] causing widespread devastation across the region.^[12] Wind gusts in Cape May County reached over 110 mph (180 km/h), and around 130 mph (210 km/h) in Atlantic County.^[13] In Little Egg Harbor, the hurricane damaged to the port. Strong winds reached as far inland as Philadelphia, where winds of over 40 mph (65 km/h) downed trees and chimneys; in the city, precipitation accrued to 3.92 inches (99.6 mm). Further to the north, the hurricane destroyed a windmill at Bergen Point, New Jersey.^[12] Though the hurricane struck at low tide, it produced a storm surge of over 29 feet (9 m) along several portions of the New Jersey coastline, causing significant overwash.^[2]

The hurricane produced a storm surge of 13 feet (4 m) in only one hour at Battery Park, a record only broken 191 years later by Hurricane Sandy. Manhattan Island was completely flooded to Canal Street; one hurricane researcher remarked that the storm surge flooding would have been much worse, had the hurricane not struck at low tide.^[14] However, few deaths were reported in the city, since the flooding affected neighborhoods much less populated than today.^[15] The hurricane brought light rainfall as it passed New York City, though strong winds left severe damage across the city. High tides occurred along the Hudson River. Strong waves and winds blew many ships ashore along Long Island. One ship sank, killing 17 people. Along Long Island, the winds destroyed several buildings and left crops destroyed.^[12]

In New England, the hurricane produced widespread gale-force winds, with damage greatest in Connecticut.^[10] The Black Rock Harbor Light in Black Rock, Connecticut, was destroyed on September 21.^[12][16] Elsewhere in the state, the winds damaged or destroyed churches, houses and small buildings. Moderate crop damage to fruit was reported as well. Strong winds extended into eastern Massachusetts, though little damage was reported in the Boston area.^[10] Hurricane-force winds reached as far north as Maine.^[13]

Historical context

The Swiss Re insurance company estimates that a hurricane with the exact track of the 1821 storm would cause $107 billion in direct property damage in 2014. Damage would reach over $1 billion in Atlantic and Ocean counties in New Jersey and New Haven, and Hartford counties in Connecticut. Damage would reach over $2 billion in Nassau and Suffolk counties on Long Island, as well as Fairfield County, Connecticut. Indirect losses, including lost tax revenue and lower real estate, would reach nearly $250 billion nationwide for a similar storm. The damage would be far greater than what occurred during Hurricane Sandy in 2012,^[13] which caused $65 billion in damage in the country when it struck New Jersey.^[17]

[LibertyBell]

So if a storm with that track struck here today, even at low tide, it would have caused far more damages and loss than Sandy did.  

[donsutherland1]

Temperatures generally ranged from the lower to middle 80s across the region today. Much of the week will be a few degrees cooler with highs mainly topping out in the upper 70s and lower 80s.

In addition, parts of the region could moderate to heavy rainfall on Wednesday into Thursday. The heaviest rain is likely to fall south and west of New York City.

Out West, Boise will very likely wind up with its warmest summer on record. Other cities in the running for their warmest summer on record include Portland, Reno, and Salt Lake City.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around August 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September.

The SOI was +3.94 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.310 today.

On August 14 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 2.231 (RMM). The August 13-adjusted amplitude was 2.305 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.4° (0.4° above normal).

 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Temperatures generally ranged from the lower to middle 80s across the region today. Much of the week will be a few degrees cooler with highs mainly topping out in the upper 70s and lower 80s.

In addition, parts of the region could moderate to heavy rainfall on Wednesday into Thursday. The heaviest rain is likely to fall south and west of New York City.

Out West, Boise will very likely wind up with its warmest summer on record. Other cities in the running for their warmest summer on record include Portland, Reno, and Salt Lake City.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around August 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September.

The SOI was +3.94 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.310 today.

On August 14 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 2.231 (RMM). The August 13-adjusted amplitude was 2.305 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.4° (0.4° above normal).

 

Looks like Fred remnants rainfall on Thursday, Don? I saw a map indicating that NYC and Western Long Island could get 1-3 inches of rain?