mattinpa Posted July 31, 2021 Share Posted July 31, 2021 6 hours ago, CIK62 said: The GEFS Extended is promising a super, but dry, HW Period after that initial heavy rain about the 8th----as shown on the EURO. Lasts from say August 9----21. Then T crashes to Normal. lol. The Control actually has 7 straight 100's. Last splash in the Frying Pan for the GFS this season. RIP I can see a heat wave, but boy the GFS has gone overly bonkers multiple times this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 31, 2021 Share Posted July 31, 2021 An unusually cool 53F this morning. Enjoy this week of pleasant, dry weather because there's some serious heat starting 2nd week of August. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 31, 2021 Share Posted July 31, 2021 Down to 58 here. Nice and cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted July 31, 2021 Share Posted July 31, 2021 52 at the moment, coolest morning since early June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted July 31, 2021 Share Posted July 31, 2021 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: Models beginning to come into better focus on our next heatwave. Looks like a chance of 90s by Friday into the weekend. Major 95+ heat could be possible for the 2nd week of August. EPS has +18C 850 mb temperatures with the OP going for +20C. Looks like the humidity could also be creeping up at that time too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 31, 2021 Share Posted July 31, 2021 Some good news out of the southwest. PHOENIX – A series of powerful storms that brought days of heavy rain to most of Arizona has made an impact on the drought. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, 52% of the state is now in extreme or exceptional drought, down dramatically from 84% last week. Now, just 8.6% of the state is in the deepest drought category called exceptional. That’s down from 36% last week. University of Arizona climate scientist Mike Crimmins says Arizona just experienced “epic rainfall” and there couldn’t have been a better type of rainfall event in the summer to improve short-term drought conditions. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 31, 2021 Share Posted July 31, 2021 August to open cooler than normal and probably the coolest since 2013. This year's summer will be remembered by what happens in August after the hot start in June/early July then more wet/cooler last week or two and this coming week. Progression on guidance remain consistent and both the gfs and ecm are persistent with cooler opening Sun (8/1) through Wed/Thu (8/4) with strong Rockies Ridge and trough into the EC. Then as the Western Atlantic ridge expands west in the Thu (8/5) to Sun (8/8) period more southerly tropical flow with humidity and rain chances as the boundary is over or just west of the area as heights come up on the EC. SO more warm/humid and wet to very wet this period. By next weekend Sun (8/8) the trough is lifting out and the flow flattens and the western heat comes east and offers our next chance of heat / 90s. We'll see how humid and wet it remains but guidance still showing that second week of August with a transition back towards the heat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 31, 2021 Share Posted July 31, 2021 August 2016, 2014, 2013 all opened with a cooler than normal August. 16 saw heat come back week 2 and remain most of the rest of the month. 13 / 14 remained near or below normal with no signficant heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted July 31, 2021 Share Posted July 31, 2021 36 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the Euro and EPS also have a return to higher dew points. The coming near record +PNA is so extreme, that it could mark a pattern change. The EPS allow the WAR to take over for much of August. So we could be looking at an extended heatwave from mid to late August. Aug 9-16 Aug 16-23 With the PNA dropping down to neutral what do you think the chances are with severe weather I’m assuming that would also pick up What do you think blue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 31, 2021 Share Posted July 31, 2021 8 hours ago, thunderbolt said: With the PNA dropping down to neutral what do you think the chances are with severe weather I’m assuming that would also pick up What do you think blue It looks like the WAR will eventually push back against the near record +PNA ridge. But the models can’t agree on where the front stalls out with training convection. So the magnitude of any warm up week 2 will probably have to wait until the finer details get sorted out. Flip a coin 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 1, 2021 Share Posted August 1, 2021 On 7/30/2021 at 5:35 PM, uncle W said: the last four days in August 1953 were 100 degrees or higher at Newark...Sept 2nd was 105 in Newark for the warmest of the summer and fifth time in six days 100 or better...1976's hottest day at Newark was 93 first hit in April and tied in June and August... wow NYC hit 96 in April 1976 and again in April 2002- the two heatwaves mirrored each other. EWR on the other hand hit 97 in April 2002 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted August 1, 2021 Share Posted August 1, 2021 Currently 58 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 1, 2021 Share Posted August 1, 2021 The first 8 days of August are averaging 78degs.(70/86)., or +1.0 HW still on for August 7-17. SUBx LR is BN W.1, then AN for the rest of August -----but somehow says the whole month will average BN?!. This model has a dry August around here too. 06Z GFS has Cat. 2 in se Atlantic at end of run-----but earlier runs have no circulation. Conditions are changing but do not trust radical LR changes. Already gone by the 12Z. Wonder what the 06Z was drinking. 68*(75%RH) here at 6am, scattered clouds. 75* by 1pm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted August 1, 2021 Author Share Posted August 1, 2021 Few thoughts: No thread at this time, but may start one this afternoon and maybe another in the next few afternoons. 1) SVR WX thread se NYS/NW NJ 5PM-10PM. Realistic SPC D1 Marginal risk. No thread at this time cause probably too small an area of coverage but potential exists per modeling of a few big storms w hail. Dies out near NYC around 9-10P. 2) Heat Waves and fairly large QPF (iso 6") coming to some areas, with the bigger qpf threats 5th through at least the 14th; and 90F begins in parts of our area next weekend (7th) and it too can be multiple heat waves or singular persising through at least the 14th. Pattern: Sharpening meridional pattern develops this week as the WAR builds westward in response to a closed low aloft attempting to form in the Ohio Valley. The band of high PWAT (near 2") and intermittent heavy rains just southeast of our subforum attempts to to develop west. NAEFS starts this e LI early this week while most modeling tends to wait til the 5th or after. Will rereview daily and kind of wait till it becomes more certain a a very small part of the NYC subforum will receive 6" in the first half of the month. The way it looks to me: above normal rainfall is almost certain these next two weeks for parts of our area. Spatial coverage and where are TBD. This includes marginal severe weather threats Thursday onward. CAPE grows considerably next weekend and seems to hang around week two. Good news for keeping it lush around here. 746AM added the NAEFS prob of above normal temps week two of August--- pretty high confidence. We'll see how long this high confidence might persist? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 1, 2021 Share Posted August 1, 2021 Morning thoughts... Today will be variably cloudy and cool. Some showers are possible. Temperatures will likely the middle and upper 70s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures include: New York City (Central Park): 76° Newark: 80° Philadelphia: 75° Tomorrow will be partly sunny and a bit warmer. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 84.7°; 15-Year: 85.6° Newark: 30-Year: 86.3°; 15-Year: 87.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.3°; 15-Year: 88.0° 30-Day Verification: New York City (Central Park): Average daily forecast: 83.5° Average temperature: 83.0° Average error: 1.4° Newark: Average daily forecast: 88.0° Average temperature: 87.4° Average error: 1.5° Philadelphia: Average daily forecast: 87.4° Average temperature: 87.2° Average error: 1.6° 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 1, 2021 Share Posted August 1, 2021 77/61 and clouds moving in. Back to some terrific weather Monday before a slow transition to much more humid weather returns mid / late week. West Coast Ridge gone wild pushing trough into the EC. Western Atlantic Ridge flexing back west and the EC or just west of there stuck in the middle between the two with a boundary hung up. That should translate to the progression; 8/4 - 8/8 : humid/ warm and wet with daily storm/rain chances and likely clouds - Florida-like 8/8 - next week : Trough lift but still some weakness and have to watch for some sor te of cut off , but with a flatter flow some of the heat from the west comes east into the area and offers the next shot at heat/90s. Some high heat index values and continued rain chances. Florida style back into the region. Tropics likely kick into return gear. SO once past the 4th of the below normal start it looks humid , wet and warm with some potential heat mixed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 1, 2021 Share Posted August 1, 2021 https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EUS/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EUS-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 1, 2021 Share Posted August 1, 2021 Light rain and 73 to start August Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 1, 2021 Share Posted August 1, 2021 Showers are hitting a brick wall before getting to the island. Currently sunny at Jones beach 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 1, 2021 Share Posted August 1, 2021 Beautiful day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted August 1, 2021 Share Posted August 1, 2021 Cloudy here most of the afternoon, currently 73 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 2, 2021 Share Posted August 2, 2021 Tomorrow will be mostly sunny and somewhat warmer than today. The medium-range looks even warmer as temperatures could be pressing 90° during the next weekend. Overall, August will probably finish near normal in the Middle Atlantic region. Through much of July, the area of drought over northwestern North America has largely driven the upper air pattern. The MJO has played a much lesser role. Should that remain the case, much of August could see warm temperature anomalies in the western half of the United States, especially the northwestern U.S. and western Canada. The Northeast could see near normal or below normal readings. Since 1869, there were 9 cases where July saw 8.00" or more of rain. Only 1988 saw a much warmer than normal August (78.8° mean temperature). The remainder of that set of years saw mean temperatures below the 1991-20 August mean of 76.0°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around July 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August. The SOI was -1.58 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.762 today. On July 30 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.932 (RMM). The July 29-adjusted amplitude was 0.872 (RMM). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted August 2, 2021 Share Posted August 2, 2021 Summer is coming to a close huh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted August 2, 2021 Share Posted August 2, 2021 35 minutes ago, RippleEffect said: Summer is coming to a close huh! 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: Tomorrow will be mostly sunny and somewhat warmer than today. The medium-range looks even warmer as temperatures could be pressing 90° during the next weekend. Overall, August will probably finish near normal in the Middle Atlantic region. Through much of July, the area of drought over northwestern North America has largely driven the upper air pattern. The MJO has played a much lesser role. Should that remain the case, much of August could see warm temperature anomalies in the western half of the United States, especially the northwestern U.S. and western Canada. The Northeast could see near normal or below normal readings. Since 1869, there were 9 cases where July saw 8.00" or more of rain. Only 1988 saw a much warmer than normal August (78.8° mean temperature). The remainder of that set of years saw mean temperatures below the 1991-20 August mean of 76.0°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around July 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August. The SOI was -1.58 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.762 today. On July 30 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.932 (RMM). The July 29-adjusted amplitude was 0.872 (RMM). I’m hoping by the beginning of November, as always ….. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 2, 2021 Share Posted August 2, 2021 Some moderate showers around currently... had 0.28" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted August 2, 2021 Share Posted August 2, 2021 6 hours ago, psv88 said: Beautiful day Yes beauty of a cloudy day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 2, 2021 Share Posted August 2, 2021 Picked up 0.36" of rain for the day. Current temp 68/DP 66/RH 97% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted August 2, 2021 Share Posted August 2, 2021 Got .11 at my station in Sheepshead Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted August 2, 2021 Share Posted August 2, 2021 .87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxallannj Posted August 2, 2021 Share Posted August 2, 2021 August 1 High 79 Low 59 Rainfall .17" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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