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August 2021


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Temperatures again rose into the 90s from Washington, DC to Philadelphia. The heat is now moving northward and oppressive heat and humidity lies ahead. There is a growing possibility that the heat wave could extend into the New York City area. Above normal temperatures could persist until near mid-month.

Heat has moved into the Pacific Northwest. The temperature rose to 93° at Portland. Extreme heat will move into the area tomorrow. As a result, Portland will likely experience its second extreme heat event of the year. That would make 2021 the first year on record with two such events. Portland could also experience 2 or more 100° high temperatures, allowing 2021 to tie or break the all-time record for most such days. There is an increasing possibility that Seattle could also experience its second extreme heat event of the year.

In some of the long-range guidance that heat could later be followed by another round of heat in the Northern Plains a week or so later. If so, one will see a similar sequence of events as occurred from late June to mid-July.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September.

The SOI was +17.72 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.163 today.

On August 8 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.136 (RMM). The August 7-adjusted amplitude was 0.933 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.1° (0.1° above normal).

 

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18 hours ago, bluewave said:

Good model agreement on 850 mb temperatures in the 20-22C range. So this should allow the warm spots to reach 100° or higher.  It would be the first June and August 100° or warmer at Newark since 1993 and 1953.

Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Jun
Jul
Aug
Season
2021 103 97 92 103
2011 102 108 98 108
1994 102 99 95 102
1993 102 105 100 105
1952 102 98 92 102
1943 102 95 97 102
1988 101 101 99 101
1966 101 105 95 105
1959 100 93 96 100
1953 100 99 102 102
1934 100 98 90 100


 

F79008DE-423C-4B31-875B-056A68C04060.thumb.gif.3780836960af40586bfae8aca553c354.gif

1993 one of the best summers EVER

 

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