CIK62 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 81degs.(74/92), or +5. Seems like too much cloudiness during this period, to permit these highs. 70*(96%RH) here at 6am, FOG<1mi., drizzle. 69*/70* at 7am, fog mostly lifted. 80* by 1pm. 81* by 5m. Multiple tropical points of interest. Models will have to simplify by consolidating them. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 6 hours ago, psv88 said: You are twisting and contorting as much as you can to convince yourself humans haven’t caused climate change. It’s hard to watch. The tilt of the earth can affect the climate but it takes thousands of years, that is just fact. What is happening today with our temperatures is happening way to fast for it to be anything with the earths tilt. My reference to quakes and earths tilt was only in regards to the north pole getting warmer and the south pole not. I believe humans are affecting the earths climate, however, I will admit I am not an alarmist like some. What does bother me is when the news media and some people try and make it sound like climate change is causing things like the fires out west. Most are started by people, just a fact. I do believe, however, that climate change is making the fires worse. However if you want to solve a problem you have to be truthful about what the problem is. Forest management, putting electrical wires in safe places, and so on, is how we can do something now to really make a difference in slowing those fires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 25 minutes ago, lee59 said: The tilt of the earth can affect the climate but it takes thousands of years, that is just fact. What is happening today with our temperatures is happening way to fast for it to be anything with the earths tilt. My reference to quakes and earths tilt was only in regards to the north pole getting warmer and the south pole not. I believe humans are affecting the earths climate, however, I will admit I am not an alarmist like some. What does bother me is when the news media and some people try and make it sound like climate change is causing things like the fires out west. Most are started by people, just a fact. I do believe, however, that climate change is making the fires worse. However if you want to solve a problem you have to be truthful about what the problem is. Forest management, putting electrical wires in safe places, and so on, is how we can do something now to really make a difference in slowing those fires. By the way the quakes and the tilt of the earth was just a long shot theory that I heard and not something I believe happened. LibertyBell reference to the North Pole being just water and the Antarctic being a continent makes a lot more sense in why the temperatures in those areas are doing what they are doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 30 minutes ago, lee59 said: What does bother me is when the news media and some people try and make it sound like climate change is causing things like the fires out west. Most are started by people, just a fact. I do believe, however, that climate change is making the fires worse. However if you want to solve a problem you have to be truthful about what the problem is. Forest management, putting electrical wires in safe places, and so on, is how we can do something now to really make a difference in slowing those fires. We are witnessing the compounding effects of multiple issues. The warming climate is drying out the West to record levels providing more fuel for the fires. So the fires grew to record levels whether the spark is caused by human activities or nature. Poor land management has also contributed to the build up of fuels. People have moved into very high risk areas. It’s very expensive to bury power lines. I am not sure how people will afford steeply rising electric rates to pay these costs. Property insurance is also getting very high in those areas. So people are getting priced out of the market. Many are getting tired of all these fires and costs and moving to other parts of the country. So by just letting climate change run, we are creating a regressive climate damage tax which falls hardest on people with lower incomes. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 Morning thoughts… It will become partly cloudy today. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 80s in the region, except for upper 80s from central New Jersey southward. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 80° Newark: 85° Philadelphia: 87° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 84.1°; 15-Year: 84.5° Newark: 30-Year: 85.6°; 15-Year: 86.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 86.6°; 15-Year: 86.9° Much of the upcoming week will see above normal temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: We are witnessing the compounding effects of multiple issues. The warming climate is drying out the West to record levels providing more fuel for the fires. So the fires grew to record levels whether the spark is caused by human activities or nature. Poor land management has also contributed to the build up of fuels. People have moved into very high risk areas. It’s very expensive to bury power lines. I am not sure how people will afford steeply rising electric rates to pay these costs. Property insurance is also getting very high in those areas. So people are getting priced out of the market. Many are getting tired of all these fires and costs and moving to other parts of the country. So by just letting climate change run, we are leaving a regressive climate damage taxes which falls hardest on people with lower incomes. Thanks. Now I don't have to finish the post I started. Climate change is also the reason why the fires have been so large. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 59 minutes ago, bluewave said: We are witnessing the compounding effects of multiple issues. The warming climate is drying out the West to record levels providing more fuel for the fires. So the fires grew to record levels whether the spark is caused by human activities or nature. Poor land management has also contributed to the build up of fuels. People have moved into very high risk areas. It’s very expensive to bury power lines. I am not sure how people will afford steeply rising electric rates to pay these costs. Property insurance is also getting very high in those areas. So people are getting priced out of the market. Many are getting tired of all these fires and costs and moving to other parts of the country. So by just letting climate change run, we are creating a regressive climate damage tax which falls hardest on people with lower incomes. It is a problem with so many things fueling the flames, as you mention. So maybe the problem is being solved on its own. If we cant bury the lines because of cost, insurance is going sky high and people are just fed up with dealing with the horrible fires, then maybe less people will move their and more will move out and less fires will happen. (hopefully). Yes when taxes are raised or rates are raised, it is always the lower income folks that get hit the hardest.. I guess another solution is to just say, you want to live here, then it will cost you. We need a lot of money to clear all land near power lines, insurance will be sky high. Anyone caught doing anything foolish in regards to risky behavior that can cause fires will face steep fines. Just like it is getting expensive to live on the water because of other risks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 I have now gotten over an inch of rain from this latest rain event. Much more than I expected but am glad to have received it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 how do these fires get started?...the more people living in dry places the more fires will start...either from stupidity or malace...you might get a dry thunder storm here and there with lightning...if you start a fire and it burns thousands of acres and kills animals and people you should pay a big price... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 I just want to say that I am for renewable, clean energy. I would never throw trash on the ground and it annoys me a lot when I see others do it. I want our earth and its land and water and atmosphere to be as clean as possible. I just don't want to look at a problem without looking at all sides, in order to come up with good solutions. I only mention this because some may get the wrong idea about my thoughts about climate change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, uncle W said: how do these fires get started?...the more people living in dry places the more fires will start...either from stupidity or malace...you might get a dry thunder storm here and there with lightning...if you start a fire and it burns thousands of acres and kills animals and people you should pay a big price... They say almost 90% of the fires are started by either people or something like power lines that people have built. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 Meanwhile it has started raining here again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 13 hours ago, WarrenCtyWx said: I also noticed the 1 and 2 coincidence for bad winters. It seems to have started in full in 1931-32. I was just stiring the pot...or smoking it...this year could be the first 1-2 winter with over 40" and a foot or bigger snowstorm...its time to buck the trend... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 Total of .50 inches of rain from this event here IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 Little cut off system still spinning around and round. 79/67 here in CNJ and now partly sunny. Up to upper 80s in the warmer spots today not too influenced by onshore / clouds. The the heat is on (hottest 5 day Aug period since 2016 perhaps). Tue (8/10) through Sat (8/14) 90s for most mid to upper 90s in the hot spots and in the extreme an isolated century mark or two but id say chances are low. ECM has 850s peak at >18c Wed (8/11) and then near or >20c by Thu (8/12) - Sat (8/14). Sunday (8/15) front comes through but it looks warm/humid overall and more heat potential beyond there as E ridging rebuilds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EUS/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EUS-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 2 hours ago, uncle W said: I was just stiring the pot...or smoking it...this year could be the first 1-2 winter with over 40" and a foot or bigger snowstorm...its time to buck the trend... The -AO/+PNA fans are hoping that the Euro seasonal isn’t smoking something. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 These long term models have a hard time seeing cold. That area of average over the east coast is probably cold LOL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: These long term models have a hard time seeing cold. That area of average over the east coast is probably cold LOL If we get our 40” snow season and we have 1-2 degrees above average I’m fine with it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The -AO/+PNA fans are hoping that the Euro seasonal isn’t smoking something. I see some nice blocking and a PNA ridge, albeit a little too far east for our liking. Hardly a bad look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 80° here today with lots of clouds and a ne wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 High for the day briefly made it up to 86 here. Current temp 78/DP 70/RH 77% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 forecast 850 temps support 100+ wed through friday 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 Just had another heavy shower here. Over 2" rain since early Sunday. We haven't been over 73° since Saturday afternoon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 This is the GFS ENS., so some of the extremes might be muted out, but no BN days here: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imbeldar Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 7 hours ago, uncle W said: how do these fires get started?...the more people living in dry places the more fires will start...either from stupidity or malace...you might get a dry thunder storm here and there with lightning...if you start a fire and it burns thousands of acres and kills animals and people you should pay a big price... Hanlon's razor is a principle or rule of thumb that states "never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 75 degree high here today under mostly cloudy skies and occasional showers. I received 1.10 inches of rain from the latest event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 24 minutes ago, CIK62 said: This is the GFS ENS., so some of the extremes might be muted out, but no BN days here: GEFS couldn't even get the 1st day right today ended up -2. Hard to have much faith in it 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 11 minutes ago, binbisso said: GEFS couldn't even get the 1st day right today ended up -2. Hard to have much faith in it I just think there is some type of inherent problem with those charts...several times I've checked the 2m temp maps against those charts and they don't match up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 47 minutes ago, CIK62 said: This is the GFS ENS., so some of the extremes might be muted out, but no BN days here: Here's weathermodels.com one FWIW: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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