August 2021

[lee59]

Currently a chilly 65 degrees here, 74 the high. Rain has stopped and .80 is my total so far.

[LibertyBell]

30 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

misty chilly right now in the city does not feel like summer.

Rain has made it into most of the city now as well as Westchester, temps in the 60s now in the city.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Long Island should get some rain. Very little will fall from NYC north and west.

Rain just got into most of the city and Westchester, but it looks like they will get under a quarter of an inch there.

Hey Don I was looking at the position of the low and it's a coastal hugger so very close to the coast.  Why is it that rain didn't make it further inland....a low that passes just under western long island, you'd expect a larger rainshield extending at least 100 miles to the west  and northwest of the low?

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, uncle W said:

we are headed for the ten year snow drought cycle or coincidence where since 1871 no year ending in two had over 31.4"...that was 1881-82...1901-02 had 30.0" and a major storm...1981-82 was bailed out by a 9.6" storm in April...the best of these years would be near average for snowfall in todays world...

2011-12.....7.4"

2001-02.....3.5"

1991-92...12.6"

1981-82...24.6"

1971-72...22.9"

1961-62...18.1"

1951-52...19.7"

1941-42...11.3"

1931-32...5.3"

1921-22...27.8"

1911-12...29.5"

1901-02...30.0"

1891-92...25.4"

1881-82...31.4"

1871-72...14.1"

wow two all time awful winters in that list 1931-32 and 2001-02

 

[justinj]

9 minutes ago, Rjay said:

 

North of LIE = more snow…usually 

[justinj]

10 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I move to Holbrook and you leave.  Hmmm 

We bought a house. Out of the basement apartment 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

wow for a second I thought that was in Virginia!

with this recent report about the changing ocean currents, how will this impact SST up our way, Chris?

We would probably have ocean temperatures in the 80s with a marine heatwave like Japan is having.  So we’ll see if the East Coast ever gets one as severe in coming years. 

 

[lee59]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We would probably see ocean temperatures in the 80s with a marine heatwave like Japan is having.

 

Here is some good news about our oceans. Although sea ice in the Arctic continues to become less, sea ice in the Antarctic has remained the same and even slightly increased over the past 40 years. That is important because the Antarctic has some 85% of the worlds ice.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Here is some good news about our oceans. Although sea ice in the Arctic continues to become less, sea ice in the Antarctic has remained the same and even slightly increased over the past 40 years. That is important because the Antarctic has some 85% of the worlds ice.

Paradoxically, warmer oceans may mean bigger snowstorms in the winter, at least in the short term.

[bluewave]

Just now, lee59 said:

Here is some good news about our oceans. Although sea ice in the Arctic continues to become less, sea ice in the Antarctic has remained the same and even slightly increased over the past 40 years. That is important because the Antarctic has some 85% of the worlds ice.

It’s the land ice that’s at risk in Antarctica from warmer SST’s below the surface. But the tipping point will probably come by around 2060. That’s when we are on track to pass +2c of warming. The big unknown at this point is whether the WAIS will break up over a few centuries or several decades.

[lee59]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Paradoxically, warmer oceans may mean bigger snowstorms in the winter, at least in the short term.

I think we are already seeing that. Our average snowfall has gone up over the past 20 years or so with a milder winter and increased precip.

[lee59]

Just now, bluewave said:

It’s the land ice that’s at risk in Antarctica from warmer SST’s below the surface. But the tipping point will probably come by around 2060. That’s when we are on track to pass +2c of warming. The big unknown at this point is whether the WAIS will break up over a few centuries or several decades.

This may sound crazy but I have heard this mentioned. Is it possible that some major quakes that have happened in recent history, could have tilted the earth ever so slightly. The ever so slight tilt affected the Arctic in receiving more direct sunlight and slightly warmer temps and the Antarctic just the opposite. Not saying this has happened but it does make at least some sense. 

[lee59]

Looks like showers could keep temps down on the Island tomorrow, as the low is slow to leave.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Must be a Suffolk County thing, Nassau County has had plenty of rain, my pond has been overflowing and my mold allergies have been awful.  I don't follow Suffolk County weather because I haven't been out there since 2019 and no media reports on Suffolk County rainfall totals.  I just get the stuff for NYC and the surrounding airports.  We've had rain here on 5 weekends (at least one day of the weekend at any rate) since the beginning of July.  Dry went away here when June ended.

 

 

10 out of the last 11 weekends since Memorial Day had at least a T of rain. The extended Memorial Day and July 4th weekends were unusually cool and damp. So it will be interesting to see if maybe we get a stalled front or tropical system for Labor Day weekend. Not sure if we ever had all 3 big extended holiday summer weekends with significant rain before.

[LibertyBell]

33 minutes ago, lee59 said:

This may sound crazy but I have heard this mentioned. Is it possible that some major quakes that have happened in recent history, could have tilted the earth ever so slightly. The ever so slight tilt affected the Arctic in receiving more direct sunlight and slightly warmer temps and the Antarctic just the opposite. Not saying this has happened but it does make at least some sense. 

what seems reasonable is that Antarctica has better ice retention because it's a continent.  

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

10 out of the last 11 weekends since Memorial Day had at least a T of rain. The extended Memorial Day and July 4th weekends were unusually cool and damp. So it will be interesting to see if maybe we get a stalled front or tropical system for Labor Day weekend. Not sure if we ever had the all 3 big extended holiday summer weekends with rain before.

We usually have a nice July 4th, with Memorial Day weekend and Labor Day weekend more likely to be rainy.  A few years ago, we had a rain out for all 3 days of Labor Day weekend!

[LibertyBell]

40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s the land ice that’s at risk in Antarctica from warmer SST’s below the surface. But the tipping point will probably come by around 2060. That’s when we are on track to pass +2c of warming. The big unknown at this point is whether the WAIS will break up over a few centuries or several decades.

we better not be waiting for 2060 to make some big changes.

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

We usually have a nice July 4th, with Memorial Day weekend and Labor Day weekend more likely to be rainy.  A few years ago, we had a rain out for all 3 days of Labor Day weekend!

Figures that Christmas had warmer weather relative to the means than the Memorial day and a July 4th weekends.

[WarrenCtyWx]

9 hours ago, uncle W said:

we are headed for the ten year snow drought cycle or coincidence where since 1871 no year ending in two had over 31.4"...that was 1881-82...1901-02 had 30.0" and a major storm...1981-82 was bailed out by a 9.6" storm in April...the best of these years would be near average for snowfall in todays world...

2011-12.....7.4"

2001-02.....3.5"

1991-92...12.6"

1981-82...24.6"

1971-72...22.9"

1961-62...18.1"

1951-52...19.7"

1941-42...11.3"

1931-32...5.3"

1921-22...27.8"

1911-12...29.5"

1901-02...30.0"

1891-92...25.4"

1881-82...31.4"

1871-72...14.1"

I also noticed the 1 and 2 coincidence for bad winters. It seems to have started in full in 1931-32.

[lee59]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what seems reasonable is that Antarctica has better ice retention because it's a continent.  

That does seem reasonable. At least there won't be much melting today, currently -84F with the real feel a cool -121. 

[lee59]

Raining here again.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Rain just got into most of the city and Westchester, but it looks like they will get under a quarter of an inch there.

Hey Don I was looking at the position of the low and it's a coastal hugger so very close to the coast.  Why is it that rain didn't make it further inland....a low that passes just under western long island, you'd expect a larger rainshield extending at least 100 miles to the west  and northwest of the low?

 

Too much confluence. Hopefully, that won't be a winter theme.

[donsutherland1]

Much of the region slogged through clouds and showers today with temperatures rising only into the upper 70s and lower 80s. South of the region, temperatures rose into the 90s as close by as Harrisburg and Washington, DC.

Remaining showers will exit the region overnight setting the stage for a very warm week. A heat wave is likely in parts of the region, especially from Washington, DC to Philadelphia. Above normal temperatures could persist toward mid-month.

This week will see the development of a much above normal temperature regime in the Pacific Northwest. Portland will likely experience its second extreme heat event of the year. That would make 2021 the first year on record with two such events. Portland could also experience 2 or more 100° high temperatures, allowing 2021 to tie or break the all-time record for most such days. There is an increasing possibility that Seattle could also experience its second extreme heat event of the year.

In some of the long-range guidance that heat could later be followed by another round of heat in the Northern Plains a week or so later. If so, one will see a similar sequence of events as occurred from late June to mid-July.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around July 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September.

The SOI was -2.25 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.582 today.

On August 6 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.744 (RMM). The August 5-adjusted amplitude was 0.642 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 51% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.1° (0.1° above normal).

 

[doncat]

Only made it to 74° here today...0.26" rain this am.

[LibertyBell]

45 minutes ago, lee59 said:

That does seem reasonable. At least there won't be much melting today, currently -84F with the real feel a cool -121. 

Is that for Vostok? They're usually the coldest place there.

 

[the_other_guy]

Just feels like a late September early October rainy evening.

Very nice for a brief interlude

[psv88]

2 hours ago, lee59 said:

This may sound crazy but I have heard this mentioned. Is it possible that some major quakes that have happened in recent history, could have tilted the earth ever so slightly. The ever so slight tilt affected the Arctic in receiving more direct sunlight and slightly warmer temps and the Antarctic just the opposite. Not saying this has happened but it does make at least some sense. 

That’s crazy and batshit insane and makes no sense. 

[lee59]

34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Is that for Vostok? They're usually the coldest place there.

 

 

 

Amundsen-Scott Antarctic station

[lee59]

13 minutes ago, psv88 said:

That’s crazy and batshit insane and makes no sense. 

Ok how do you really feel.  But it does make some sense. Maybe a very remote chance but in theory it probably could happen.

The following had nothing to do with quakes but the tilt does change: But this tilt changes. During a cycle that averages about 40,000 years, the tilt of the axis varies between 22.1 and 24.5 degrees. Because this tilt changes, the seasons as we know them can become exaggerated. More tilt means more severe seasons—warmer summers and colder winters; less tilt means less severe seasons—cooler summers and milder winters

[psv88]

2 hours ago, lee59 said:

Ok how do you really feel.  But it does make some sense. Maybe a very remote chance but in theory it probably could happen.

The following had nothing to do with quakes but the tilt does change: But this tilt changes. During a cycle that averages about 40,000 years, the tilt of the axis varies between 22.1 and 24.5 degrees. Because this tilt changes, the seasons as we know them can become exaggerated. More tilt means more severe seasons—warmer summers and colder winters; less tilt means less severe seasons—cooler summers and milder winters

You are twisting and contorting as much as you can to convince yourself humans haven’t caused climate change. It’s hard to watch.