uncle W Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 we are headed for the ten year snow drought cycle or coincidence where since 1871 no year ending in two had over 31.4"...that was 1881-82...1901-02 had 30.0" and a major storm...1981-82 was bailed out by a 9.6" storm in April...the best of these years would be near average for snowfall in todays world... 2011-12.....7.4" 2001-02.....3.5" 1991-92...12.6" 1981-82...24.6" 1971-72...22.9" 1961-62...18.1" 1951-52...19.7" 1941-42...11.3" 1931-32...5.3" 1921-22...27.8" 1911-12...29.5" 1901-02...30.0" 1891-92...25.4" 1881-82...31.4" 1871-72...14.1" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 Got .30 in the bucket here in Sheepshead Bay 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 Rain tapering off here and sun trying to come out. Still raining with .64 of an inch so far. Looks like eastern Nassau did pretty good with this rain event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 74/64 NE winds and some breaks of sun. Cool visible satellite loop with system off shore spinning causing the onshore flow clouds and rain. The system should slowly pull north this afternoon. Pending on sunshine , highs should reach near or low 80s. Still some what of a NE flow stubborn tomorrow (Mon (8/9) but inland areas should see temps closing in on 90 in CNJ/NE-NJ etc. The heat is on Tue (8/10) through Sat (8/14) looks hot and humid with low 90s Tue (8/10) to mid 90s in the warmer spots as 850 temps peak >18c Wed (8/11) and neat 20c on Thu (8/12) through Fri and Sat(8/14). A cold front looks to come through next Sat evening / Sun (8/15) and break the heat for a couple of days, but overall warm to hot pattern looks to return mid month as ridging builds into the EC. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 1 hour ago, lee59 said: For those who like winter, here is a glimmer of hope. The average high temperature at Central Park has begun its decent. It is now 84 down from 85. Starting to notice the decline in daylight a lot more now. Plenty of summer heat left though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Morning thoughts… Light rain will end and it will become partly to mostly cloudy. Parts of southern portions of the region, including Philadelphia, will see mainly sunny skies. It will be cooler than yesterday. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s but lower and middle 80s from central New Jersey southward. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 78° Newark: 83° Philadelphia: 85° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 84.2°; 15-Year: 84.7° Newark: 30-Year: 85.7°; 15-Year: 86.4° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 86.7°; 15-Year: 87.0° Much of the upcoming week will see above normal temperatures. Don how much rain fell? I saw a weird forecast of rain showers all day, heavy at times, up to half an inch and rain right into tomorrow morning? That can't be right- the sun already came out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 48 minutes ago, uncle W said: we are headed for the ten year snow drought cycle or coincidence where since 1871 no year ending in two had over 31.4"...that was 1881-82...1901-02 had 30.0" and a major storm...1981-82 was bailed out by a 9.6" storm in April...the best of these years would be near average for snowfall in todays world... 2011-12.....7.4" 2001-02.....3.5" 1991-92...12.6" 1981-82...24.6" 1971-72...22.9" 1961-62...18.1" 1951-52...19.7" 1941-42...11.3" 1931-32...5.3" 1921-22...27.8" 1911-12...29.5" 1901-02...30.0" 1891-92...25.4" 1881-82...31.4" 1871-72...14.1" and isn't this winter going to be a neutral after la nina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 36 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: and isn't this winter going to be a neutral after la nina? ENSO has pretty much been irrelevant for the last three winters. 18-19 and 19-20 were El Niño’s that never coupled. The actual patterns were La Niña-like with below normal snowfall and a raging polar vortex in 19-20. Last winter was a moderate La Niña with a +PNA and near record -AO. So not much resemblance to a La Niña. As always, we will have near to above normal snowfall if blocking shows up again. But below normal snowfall if the blocking is lackluster. Hard to believe the only winters with below snowfall since 02-03 were 06-07, 07-08, 12-13, 18-19, and 19-20. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 1 minute ago, bluewave said: ENSO has pretty much been irrelevant for the last three winters. 18-19 and 19-20 were El Niño’s that never coupled. The actual patterns were La Niña-like with below normal snowfall and a raging polar vortex in 19-20. Last winter was a moderate La Niña with a +PNA and near record -AO. So not much resemblance to a La Niña. As always, we will have near to above normal snowfall if blocking shows up again. But below normal snowfall if the blocking is lackluster. Hard to believe the only winters with below snowfall since 02-03 were 06-07, 07-08, 12-13, 18-19, and 19-20. Funny thing is normal snowfall has been rare and it's either been one extreme or the other. With the types of snow events we get too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Don how much rain fell? I saw a weird forecast of rain showers all day, heavy at times, up to half an inch and rain right into tomorrow morning? That can't be right- the sun already came out here. Most of the rain was south of here. 2”-4” fell in some parts of the Mount Holly forecast area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 22 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Most of the rain was south of here. 2”-4” fell in some parts of the Mount Holly forecast area. What was it that kept the storm from coming north? There hasn't been much blocking around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 2 hours ago, bluewave said: ENSO has pretty much been irrelevant for the last three winters. 18-19 and 19-20 were El Niño’s that never coupled. The actual patterns were La Niña-like with below normal snowfall and a raging polar vortex in 19-20. Last winter was a moderate La Niña with a +PNA and near record -AO. So not much resemblance to a La Niña. As always, we will have near to above normal snowfall if blocking shows up again. But below normal snowfall if the blocking is lackluster. Hard to believe the only winters with below snowfall since 02-03 were 06-07, 07-08, 12-13, 18-19, and 19-20. 1995-96, 2000-01 and 2010-11 were la nina's with at least strong blocking in December and lesser the rest of the year...these years had big storms in December... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: What was it that kept the storm from coming north? There hasn't been much blocking around here. 500 mb ridge centered over Quebec. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: 500 mb ridge centered over Quebec. Well Don it's raining here again, looks like that forecast of all day and all night rain may come true. Quite windy too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 9 minutes ago, uncle W said: 1995-96, 2000-01 and 2010-11 were la nina's with at least strong blocking in December and lesser the rest of the year...these years had big storms in December... Didn't we have another one which had 2 big storms, one in early January and one in March? It was a couple of years ago. The one in early January was a verified blizzard, a mini version of the Jan 2016 blizzard (about half as long with half the snowfall amounts of that.) We had wall to wall white out conditions all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Didn't we have another one which had 2 big storms, one in early January and one in March? It was a couple of years ago. The one in early January was a verified blizzard, a mini version of the Jan 2016 blizzard (about half as long with half the snowfall amounts of that.) We had wall to wall white out conditions all day. 2017-18... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/ne/GEOCOLOR/20212201306_GOES16-ABI-ne-GEOCOLOR-2400x2400.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 Euro and GFS both agree that the usual warm spots could approach 100° this week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 Cooler day today compared to yesterday. Current temp 78/DP 65/RH 66% Picked up 0.29" of rain so far today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 Pouring rain On the drive back from Montauk. Like a firehouse straight at central suffolk….Montauk itself was dry 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 Closing in on 1.50”, all light rain until about an hour ago. I thought it was over when the sun started coming out, but nope. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 Gorgeous weather out here today with no rain at all. Sunny, 85 with light winds and scattered Cu. We are fortunate to be under an area of subsidence between the coastal system and another one over the upper Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 Deluge now, needed rain, too bad it’s killing a Sunday in august 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 64 with heavy rain. Complete washout here today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 I was just saying to myself I am so glad I wasn’t in SE New England with repeating rains they had but here it is - a disastrous waste of a Sunday with non stop rain training over same areas. This summer is largely a fail and ranks with 2009 as one of most awful I remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 Needed this rain event here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 15 minutes ago, bkviking said: I was just saying to myself I am so glad I wasn’t in SE New England with repeating rains they had but here it is - a disastrous waste of a Sunday with non stop rain training over same areas. This summer is largely a fail and ranks with 2009 as one of most awful I remember. 2009 was my favorite summer of all time, July was perfect at least in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Well Don it's raining here again, looks like that forecast of all day and all night rain may come true. Quite windy too. Long Island should get some rain. Very little will fall from NYC north and west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 24 minutes ago, bkviking said: I was just saying to myself I am so glad I wasn’t in SE New England with repeating rains they had but here it is - a disastrous waste of a Sunday with non stop rain training over same areas. This summer is largely a fail and ranks with 2009 as one of most awful I remember. It hasn’t been that bad. Yesterday was nice and last weekend was beautiful. Today sucks for sure. We don’t have many weekends in summer and to ruin a weekend day is brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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