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we are headed for the ten year snow drought cycle or coincidence where since 1871 no year ending in two had over 31.4"...that was 1881-82...1901-02 had 30.0" and a major storm...1981-82 was bailed out by a 9.6" storm in April...the best of these years would be near average for snowfall in todays world...

2011-12.....7.4"

2001-02.....3.5"

1991-92...12.6"

1981-82...24.6"

1971-72...22.9"

1961-62...18.1"

1951-52...19.7"

1941-42...11.3"

1931-32...5.3"

1921-22...27.8"

1911-12...29.5"

1901-02...30.0"

1891-92...25.4"

1881-82...31.4"

1871-72...14.1"

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74/64 NE winds and some breaks of sun.  Cool visible satellite loop with system off shore spinning causing the onshore flow clouds and rain.  The system should slowly pull north this afternoon.  Pending on sunshine , highs should reach near or low 80s.  Still some what of a NE flow stubborn tomorrow (Mon (8/9) but inland areas should see temps closing in on 90 in CNJ/NE-NJ etc. 

The heat is on Tue (8/10) through Sat (8/14) looks hot and humid with low 90s Tue (8/10) to mid 90s in the warmer spots as 850 temps peak >18c Wed (8/11) and neat 20c on Thu (8/12) through Fri and Sat(8/14). 

 

A cold front looks to come through next Sat evening / Sun (8/15) and break the heat for a couple of days, but overall warm to hot pattern looks to return mid month as ridging builds into the EC.

 

 

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2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts…

Light rain will end and it will become partly to mostly cloudy. Parts of southern portions of the region, including Philadelphia, will see mainly sunny skies. It will be cooler than yesterday. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s but lower and middle 80s from central New Jersey southward.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 78°

Newark: 83°

Philadelphia: 85°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 84.2°; 15-Year: 84.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 85.7°; 15-Year: 86.4°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 86.7°; 15-Year: 87.0°

Much of the upcoming week will see above normal temperatures. 

Don how much rain fell?  I saw a weird forecast of rain showers all day, heavy at times, up to half an inch and rain right into tomorrow morning?  That can't be right- the sun already came out here.

 

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48 minutes ago, uncle W said:

we are headed for the ten year snow drought cycle or coincidence where since 1871 no year ending in two had over 31.4"...that was 1881-82...1901-02 had 30.0" and a major storm...1981-82 was bailed out by a 9.6" storm in April...the best of these years would be near average for snowfall in todays world...

2011-12.....7.4"

2001-02.....3.5"

1991-92...12.6"

1981-82...24.6"

1971-72...22.9"

1961-62...18.1"

1951-52...19.7"

1941-42...11.3"

1931-32...5.3"

1921-22...27.8"

1911-12...29.5"

1901-02...30.0"

1891-92...25.4"

1881-82...31.4"

1871-72...14.1"

and isn't this winter going to be a neutral after la nina?

 

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36 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

and isn't this winter going to be a neutral after la nina?

 

ENSO has pretty much been irrelevant for the last three winters. 18-19 and 19-20 were El Niño’s that never coupled. The actual patterns were La Niña-like with below normal snowfall and a raging polar vortex in 19-20. Last winter was a moderate La Niña with a +PNA and near record -AO. So not much resemblance to a La Niña.   As always, we will have near to above normal snowfall if blocking shows up again. But below normal snowfall if the blocking is lackluster.  Hard to believe the only winters with below snowfall since 02-03 were 06-07, 07-08, 12-13, 18-19, and 19-20.

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

ENSO has pretty much been irrelevant for the last three winters. 18-19 and 19-20 were El Niño’s that never coupled. The actual patterns were La Niña-like with below normal snowfall and a raging polar vortex in 19-20. Last winter was a moderate La Niña with a +PNA and near record -AO. So not much resemblance to a La Niña.   As always, we will have near to above normal snowfall if blocking shows up again. But below normal snowfall if the blocking is lackluster.  Hard to believe the only winters with below snowfall since 02-03 were 06-07, 07-08, 12-13, 18-19, and 19-20.

Funny thing is normal snowfall has been rare and it's either been one extreme or the other.  With the types of snow events we get too.

 

 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Don how much rain fell?  I saw a weird forecast of rain showers all day, heavy at times, up to half an inch and rain right into tomorrow morning?  That can't be right- the sun already came out here.

 

Most of the rain was south of here. 2”-4” fell in some parts of the Mount Holly forecast area.

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

ENSO has pretty much been irrelevant for the last three winters. 18-19 and 19-20 were El Niño’s that never coupled. The actual patterns were La Niña-like with below normal snowfall and a raging polar vortex in 19-20. Last winter was a moderate La Niña with a +PNA and near record -AO. So not much resemblance to a La Niña.   As always, we will have near to above normal snowfall if blocking shows up again. But below normal snowfall if the blocking is lackluster.  Hard to believe the only winters with below snowfall since 02-03 were 06-07, 07-08, 12-13, 18-19, and 19-20.

1995-96, 2000-01 and 2010-11 were la nina's with at least strong blocking in December and lesser the rest of the year...these years had big storms in December...

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9 minutes ago, uncle W said:

1995-96, 2000-01 and 2010-11 were la nina's with at least strong blocking in December and lesser the rest of the year...these years had big storms in December...

Didn't we have another one which had 2 big storms, one in early January and one in March? It was a couple of years ago.  The one in early January was a verified blizzard, a mini version of the Jan 2016 blizzard (about half as long with half the snowfall amounts of that.)  We had wall to wall white out conditions all day.

 

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3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Didn't we have another one which had 2 big storms, one in early January and one in March? It was a couple of years ago.  The one in early January was a verified blizzard, a mini version of the Jan 2016 blizzard (about half as long with half the snowfall amounts of that.)  We had wall to wall white out conditions all day.

 

2017-18...

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I was just saying to myself I am so glad I wasn’t in SE New England with repeating rains they had  but here it is - a disastrous  waste of a Sunday with non stop rain training over same areas. This summer is largely a fail and ranks with 2009 as one of most awful I remember. 

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15 minutes ago, bkviking said:

I was just saying to myself I am so glad I wasn’t in SE New England with repeating rains they had  but here it is - a disastrous  waste of a Sunday with non stop rain training over same areas. This summer is largely a fail and ranks with 2009 as one of most awful I remember. 

2009 was my favorite summer of all time, July was perfect at least in PA. 

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24 minutes ago, bkviking said:

I was just saying to myself I am so glad I wasn’t in SE New England with repeating rains they had  but here it is - a disastrous  waste of a Sunday with non stop rain training over same areas. This summer is largely a fail and ranks with 2009 as one of most awful I remember. 

It hasn’t been that bad. Yesterday was nice and last weekend was beautiful. 
 

Today sucks for sure. We don’t have many weekends in summer and to ruin a weekend day is brutal 

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