August 2021

[psv88]

96 today. Got home from PA and it’s a steam bath here. Was hot there, but the humidity on the island is much worse. 

[LibertyBell]

53 minutes ago, psv88 said:

96 today. Got home from PA and it’s a steam bath here. Was hot there, but the humidity on the island is much worse. 

This was sneaky heat at the tail end of the heat wave.  Made it to 96 here too, this was the hottest day of the entire summer here.

 

[donsutherland1]

A front will move slowly through the region and it could stall nearby tonight and tomorrow. The result will be cooler weather with potential showers and thundershowers tonight and tomorrow. Drier air could arrive for Sunday.

Looking farther ahead, September will likely feature near normal to somewhat warmer than normal temperatures overall.

Meanwhile Tropical Storm Ida has now developed. Ida will pose a threat to the U.S. Gulf Coast late Sunday into Monday. Some of the guidance has it making landfall as a Category 3 or Category 4 hurricane. Through 7 pm CDT, New Orleans has received 65.74" of rain. That is the 2nd highest figure on record for this time of year. As a result, the already saturated ground could exacerbate the risk of flooding from Ida.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around August 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.41°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September. Afterward, La Niña could begin to develop.

The SOI was +5.95 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.572 today.

On August 25 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.760 (RMM). The August 24-adjusted amplitude was 0.478 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.6° (1.6° above normal).

 

[SACRUS]

8/27

EWR: 96
ISP: 94
BLM: 94
ACY: 93
New Brnswck: 93
JFK: 93
LGA: 93
NYC: 93
PHL: 93
TEB: 92
TTN: 91

[doncat]

93° high here today...looks like a popular number.

[SACRUS]

Dewpoint temps still in the low / mid 70s tonight.  

[gpsnavigator]

Maximum dewpoints today are 80 or better on many of the NJ weather network stations.  Can't remember seeing that anytime recently.

 

 

[nycwinter]

4 hours ago, psv88 said:

96 today. Got home from PA and it’s a steam bath here. Was hot there, but the humidity on the island is much worse. 

this felt like the worst of all the hit summer days and hopefully the last 90 degree day until next spring

[Cfa]

Nice surprise stationary storm. I’m on the outer edge of it so not much rain but there’s a good amount of lightning. Areas underneath this storm must be flooding.

[Rtd208]

High for the day yesterday was 99 here.

Picked up 0.21" of rain for the day yesterday.

Current temp 7/DP 72/RH 86%

[Snowlover11]

congrats li, nyc, nj.  storm dome over lower westchester

[bluewave]

Currently the 2nd wettest summer in NYC. 3rd wettest and 4th warmest at Newark. So extremes of warm and wet in our more subtropical climate.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Jun through Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	2011	25.23	0
2	2021	24.03	4
3	1975	22.40	0
4	1989	22.36	0
5	2009	21.38	0
6	2006	20.79	0
7	2007	20.62	0
8	1928	20.50	0
9	1903	20.43	0
10	1927	20.01	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	1993	79.2	0
2	2010	78.7	0
3	1994	78.5	0
4	2021	78.4	4
5	2011	78.0	0
6	2005	77.8	0
7	1988	77.7	0
8	2020	77.6	0
-	2016	77.6	0
-	1973	77.6	0
9	1999	77.1	0
10	1995	77.0	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jun through Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	2011	23.57	0
2	2003	21.30	0
3	2021	20.46	4
4	2007	19.27	0
5	1971	19.09	0
6	1975	18.78	0
7	2019	18.76	0
8	2009	18.70	0
9	1942	17.71	0
10	1989	17.67	0

[CIK62]

The last 4 days of August are averaging 79degs.(73/85), or +8.

IDA remnants give 3" to 5" on Wed./Thurs.    But CMC goes south of us with little rain.

Month to date is  77.8[+1.4].      August would end at 78.0[+2.0], but more likely at 77.5.

Was 81* at Midnite.   75*(93%RH) here at 6am, overcast, streets wet.      73*, rain at 7am.       Down to 69* at 6pm!

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

At 7:15 am, rain was continuing to fall in parts of Suffolk County. Flash flooding was reported at Nesconset (1 SE), Saint James (1 S), and Saint James (1 SSE). Islip had also picked up 1.20” of rain in a one-hour period.

Today will be mostly cloudy, breezy, and noticeably cooler. Showers and periods of rain are likely. Some areas of heavy rain are possible in parts of the region this morning. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 75°

Newark: 78°

Philadelphia: 79°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 81.7°; 15-Year: 81.5°

Newark: 30-Year: 83.1°; 15-Year: 83.1°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 84.3°; 15-Year: 83.9°

Late tomorrow, Hurricane Ida will likely make landfall along the Louisiana coast as a strong Category 4 hurricane. Some of its rains could affect the Middle Atlantic region during the middle of next week. 

[RippleEffect]

Did any rain make it to the Bronx last night?

[LoboLeader1]

Just a few sprinkles here earlier, however it is quite breezy this (NE 13MPH) AM and cooler. current temp 70*

[IrishRob17]

15 hours ago, uncle W said:

if you like snow and want to at least double you totals from living in the city move to the Dingmans Ferry area and northward...the biggest snowstorm I've seen was the March 2017 storm up there...and it was two days after the storm...March 2018 saw another big event and wind event on top...Childs Park in Dingmans Ferry is still closed because of the damage done in 2018...Last February had another 2 footer...three two foot storms in five years...

Yep, March ‘18 did a lot of damage over that way, I know a guy that lost several trees in that storm, none hit his house fortunately but one came very close. 

[donsutherland1]

In southern Westchester, it is partly sunny and breezy right now.

[uncle W]

southern Staten Island is cloudy with sprinkles and light rain...some breaks in the clouds...2.64" since last evening...

[SACRUS]

 

72/69 and mostly cloudy, 0.29 in the bucket from storms Fri pm and overnight (missed to the south).  Cloudy and humid weekend.  Mon (8/30) / Tue (8/31) warmer and with enough sun a few 90s possible and perhaps getting Newark to 40 90 (+) days. 

 

Beyond that Wed (9/1) / Thu (9/2) Ida remnants come east and models shift heavier rains into the region now.  Ida's remains clear the area in time for the long weekend and we hover near / above normal with warming by the first week of September.

[bluewave]

Monday may be the best chance for Newark to reach 40 days of 90° temperatures before the cooldown.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90	Missing Count
	2010	54	0
	1993	49	0
	1988	43	0
	2002	41	0
-	1991	41	0
	2016	40	0
-	1983	40	0
-	1959	40	0
	2021	39	126
-	1994	39	0
-	1944	39	0

 

[SACRUS]

39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Monday may be the best chance for Newark to reach 40 days of 90° temperatures before the cooldown.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90	Missing Count
	2010	54	0
	1993	49	0
	1988	43	0
	2002	41	0
-	1991	41	0
	2016	40	0
-	1983	40	0
-	1959	40	0
	2021	39	126
-	1994	39	0
-	1944	39	0

 

Next chance for sure but think several more lie ahead in September as soon as the first week 9/7

[psv88]

Poured overnight here in Suffolk 

[wdrag]

Mon and possibly Tue seem to have decent chance of 90+ EWR.  Also, I see a potentially quick heating up around the 3rd-4th, albeit brief), though it may remain just in upper 80s???

[doncat]

0.18" overnight...inching my way to 10" for month at 9.83" now.

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Next chance for sure but think several more lie ahead in September as soon as the first week 9/7

Last year Newark had its last 90° in August. But that was the exception rather than the rule since 2010. Most years we have had 90° days after September 1st.
 

First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	First	Value	Last	Value	Difference
Minimum	04-07 (2010)		08-08 (2011)		69
Mean	05-22		09-10		110
Maximum	06-17 (2014)		10-02 (2019)		170
2020	06-06 (2020)	91	08-27 (2020)	93	81
2019	05-26 (2019)	90	10-02 (2019)	96	128
2018	05-02 (2018)	90	09-06 (2018)	98	126
2017	05-17 (2017)	92	09-25 (2017)	90	130
2016	05-25 (2016)	91	09-23 (2016)	90	120
2015	05-25 (2015)	90	09-09 (2015)	91	106
2014	06-17 (2014)	91	09-06 (2014)	95	80
2013	05-30 (2013)	93	09-11 (2013)	96	103
2012	05-28 (2012)	91	09-07 (2012)	90	101
2011	05-30 (2011)	92	08-08 (2011)	93	69
2010	04-07 (2010)	92	09-25 (2010)	90	170

[uncle W]

23 minutes ago, doncat said:

0.18" overnight...inching my way to 10" for month at 9.83" now.

I missed so many storms this summer until last night...at one point into the storm I thought for a second there was going to be a rain swept tornado but nothing major did happen except for the rain and lightning......

[doncat]

16 minutes ago, uncle W said:

I missed so many storms this summer until last night...at one point into the storm I thought for a second there was going to be a rain swept tornado but nothing major did happen except for the rain and lightning......

You went a long way to catching up yesterday though...I checked a couple stations around you and they're showing 8+" now for month.

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Poured overnight here in Suffolk 

 

7 hours ago, Rjay said:

Pouring at KPSV

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Rjay said:

 

 

Poured like all hell 5 am to 6 am looks like we got close to 2" in one hour!  Further east in Suffolk 4"!?  Anyone have any radar screenshots of this deluge passing through our area between 5-6?  I was half asleep and it was too dark to get up and look through the windows.