August 2021

[CIK62]

The last 7 days of August are averaging 82degs.(74/90), or +10.

Month to date is  77.1[+0.6].         August would end at 78.2[+2.2], more likely 77.1.

I reached 93 yesterday.

77*(75%RH) here at 6am, hazy blue.      80* by 9am.     81* at 10am.         82* by Noon      84* at 1pm.       86*(61%RH) at 3pm.      only  87* with a   HI =94* at 4pm.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly sunny and hot. High temperatures will likely reach the lower 90s in most of the region with some places topping out in the middle 90s.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 90°

Newark: 95°

Philadelphia: 95°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 82.3°; 15-Year: 82.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 83.6°; 15-Year: 83.1°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 84.8°; 15-Year: 84.4°

The very warm weather will continue through Friday before it turns cooler for the weekend.

[donsutherland1]

10 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

so sea breezes on the following days?  Got to 90 here at 5 PM!  Latest high I've had in awhile.  Did JFK hit 90?

 

Yes, JFK hit 90 yesterday. Central Park could only manage 89.

[rclab]

10 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

a lot of building air systems are barely designed to handle the kind of dews we have been seeing the last few years.  among the billion things I do at my job, i review air handler specifications before i buy them, and 80F is basically the upper limit of the cooling coils we spec.  maybe there's some sensitive areas with even more robust design requirements but i haven't seen it.  this is for 100% outside air laboratory air handlers.  no recycling.  the office air handlers recycle air and so are design to mix, say, 50/50 recycled air and outside air.

last year due to COVID we went to a 100% outside air protocol for ALL air handlers, even for office areas that were simply not designed to do that.  rain in the building became a problem where moist air condensed on the cold surfaces of air diffusers and started to drip.  we looked like assholes to the users but it wasn't our fault.

as global warming continues its long march to the sea, we are going to spend more and more energy just trying to fend it off--another feedback loop of doom.

edit: i know that had little to do with your post but i spent all day sweating to death and, you know, i'm not looking forward to more of it.

Good morning, Will. I don’t envy your job. Critical analysis/decisions that ultimately affect many lives. “as global warming continues its long March to the sea ” is an apt phrase that saddens me not only for its seeming inevitable accuracy but also for the possibility that the sea may meet it half way. As always ….

[LoboLeader1]

69/ DP 67/ RH 92 here this AM

[bluewave]

The current heatwave is helping Newark maintain the 4th warmest summer position. This is the first time since 2010 and 2011 that Newark had two consecutive top 10 warmest summers. So the strongest heat is focused west of the Hudson this year rather than east last summer. So LGA and EWR have traded places from last year.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	1993	79.2	0
2	2010	78.7	0
3	1994	78.5	0
4	2021	78.2	7
5	2011	78.0	0
6	2005	77.8	0
7	1988	77.7	0
8	2020	77.6	0
-	2016	77.6	0
-	1973	77.6	0
9	1999	77.1	0
10	1995	77.0	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	79.5	0
2	2010	79.1	0
3	2016	78.8	0
4	2005	78.0	0
5	2018	77.9	0
6	1966	77.5	0
7	2021	77.4	7
-	2006	77.4	0
-	1999	77.4	0
8	2019	77.3	0
-	2012	77.3	0
-	1991	77.3	0
9	1994	77.2	0
10	1995	77.1	0

[uncle W]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The current heatwave is helping Newark maintain the 4th warmest summer position. This is the first time since 2010 and 2011 that Newark had two consecutive top 10 warmest summers. So the strongest heat is focused west of the Hudson this year rather than east last summer. So LGA and EWR have traded places from last year.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	1993	79.2	0
2	2010	78.7	0
3	1994	78.5	0
4	2021	78.2	7
5	2011	78.0	0
6	2005	77.8	0
7	1988	77.7	0
8	2020	77.6	0
-	2016	77.6	0
-	1973	77.6	0
9	1999	77.1	0
10	1995	77.0	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	79.5	0
2	2010	79.1	0
3	2016	78.8	0
4	2005	78.0	0
5	2018	77.9	0
6	1966	77.5	0
7	2021	77.4	7
-	2006	77.4	0
-	1999	77.4	0
8	2019	77.3	0
-	2012	77.3	0
-	1991	77.3	0
9	1994	77.2	0
10	1995	77.1	0

11 year cycle...

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, uncle W said:

11 year cycle...

Boston is currently in 1st place for warmest summer. But it’s doing it with July being the coolest summer month. Has this ever happened before at an Eastern US weather station?

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Jun	Jul	Aug	Season
2021	74.4	72.4	76.4	74.4
1983	70.7	78.0	73.6	74.1
1949	71.6	76.3	74.4	74.1
1994	71.9	77.5	72.4	73.9
2019	68.2	78.7	74.1	73.7
2018	67.7	76.1	77.4	73.7
2016	68.4	76.1	76.4	73.6
2010	70.3	77.2	73.4	73.6
1952	70.6	77.5	72.2	73.4
1984	70.5	74.7	74.6	73.3
1973	70.0	74.2	74.8	73.0
2020	69.2	75.3	74.1	72.9
2013	69.6	77.1	72.1	72.9
2011	67.1	77.3	73.9	72.8
1991	70.0	74.6	73.7	72.8
1955	66.8	77.2	74.5	72.8

[forkyfork]

9 minutes ago, uncle W said:

11 year cycle...

myth

[uncle W]

10 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

myth

every year is an 11year cycle now...

[LibertyBell]

36 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

myth

It doesn't mean that other summers can't be hot, of course they can, but the majority of the country has seen some of its hottest summers in this 11 year cycle, What convinced me is a map of temperature anomalies for the entire CONUS for 11 year cycle summers starting from 1933; it's wall to wall red.

 

[SACRUS]

84/68 in day 3 of the late season heatwave.  Humidity creeping back up.  Ridge keeps us hot and mainly rain free till later Friday.  850 MB temps peak near or >18c later today and Thu.  Front comes through later Friday (8/27) and much of the coming weekend looks cloudy but warm/humid.  Next week by Mon (8/30) we do see the ridge rebuild and perhaps with enough clearing some more 90s Mon - Tue (8/31).

 

Beyond there the remnants of what will likely be Ida will need to be watched but overall warm / humid looks like a theme to end the month and start the next one.

[LibertyBell]

27 minutes ago, uncle W said:

every year is an 11year cycle now...

I have a specific definition for hot summer and I wont stray from it because those are the summers I remember, not these hot min fake heat summers.  I find those to be mediocre.

For EWR/LGA  45+ 90 degree days and at least 1 100+ high

For NYC 30+ 90 degree highs and at least 1 100+ high

For JFK 20+ 90 degree highs and at least 1 100+ high

How many summers meet my criteria?

 

[LibertyBell]

45 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Boston is currently in 1st place for warmest summer. But it’s doing it with July being the coolest summer month. Has this ever happened before at an Eastern US weather station?

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Jun	Jul	Aug	Season
2021	74.4	72.4	76.4	74.4
1983	70.7	78.0	73.6	74.1
1949	71.6	76.3	74.4	74.1
1994	71.9	77.5	72.4	73.9
2019	68.2	78.7	74.1	73.7
2018	67.7	76.1	77.4	73.7
2016	68.4	76.1	76.4	73.6
2010	70.3	77.2	73.4	73.6
1952	70.6	77.5	72.2	73.4
1984	70.5	74.7	74.6	73.3
1973	70.0	74.2	74.8	73.0
2020	69.2	75.3	74.1	72.9
2013	69.6	77.1	72.1	72.9
2011	67.1	77.3	73.9	72.8
1991	70.0	74.6	73.7	72.8
1955	66.8	77.2	74.5	72.8

all hail 1983 it's #1 on so many lists lol

 

[uncle W]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

I have a specific definition for hot summer and I wont stray from it because those are the summers I remember, not these hot min fake heat summers.  I find those to be mediocre.

For EWR/LGA  45+ 90 degree days and at least 1 100+ high

For NYC 30+ 90 degree highs and at least 1 100+ high

For JFK 20+ 90 degree highs and at least 1 100+ high

How many summers meet my criteria?

 

NYC will never meet that criteria unless Central Park has a brush fire...

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The current heatwave is helping Newark maintain the 4th warmest summer position. This is the first time since 2010 and 2011 that Newark had two consecutive top 10 warmest summers. So the strongest heat is focused west of the Hudson this year rather than east last summer. So LGA and EWR have traded places from last year.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	1993	79.2	0
2	2010	78.7	0
3	1994	78.5	0
4	2021	78.2	7
5	2011	78.0	0
6	2005	77.8	0
7	1988	77.7	0
8	2020	77.6	0
-	2016	77.6	0
-	1973	77.6	0
9	1999	77.1	0
10	1995	77.0	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	79.5	0
2	2010	79.1	0
3	2016	78.8	0
4	2005	78.0	0
5	2018	77.9	0
6	1966	77.5	0
7	2021	77.4	7
-	2006	77.4	0
-	1999	77.4	0
8	2019	77.3	0
-	2012	77.3	0
-	1991	77.3	0
9	1994	77.2	0
10	1995	77.1	0

I love the EWR list because I find their top list is closer to what our climate really is than LGA which is much more polluted by high min from UHI.  EWR list definitely matches how I experience heat, which is that my two hottest summers were 2010 and 1993.  Does JFK's top list also match EWR's?  (I would add 1983 and 2002 to the list too.)

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, uncle W said:

NYC will never meet that criteria unless Central Park has a brush fire...

lol time to spray Agent Orange there.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes, JFK hit 90 yesterday. Central Park could only manage 89.

Looks like no sea breeze again today so JFK and I should both hit 90 at least!

[forkyfork]

19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It doesn't mean that other summers can't be hot, of course they can, but the majority of the country has seen some of its hottest summers in this 11 year cycle, What convinced me is a map of temperature anomalies for the entire CONUS for 11 year cycle summers starting from 1933; it's wall to wall red.

 

there's no cycle, sorry

[LibertyBell]

34 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

there's no cycle, sorry

what about this?

 

https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/sun-space-weather/sunspot-cycle

 

11-year Cycle - Usually!

The duration of the sunspot cycle is, on average, around eleven years. However, the length of the cycle does vary. Between 1700 and the present, the sunspot cycle (from one solar min to the next solar min) has varied in length from as short as nine years to as long as fourteen years. Note, however, that of the 26 solar cycles during that three-century span, 21 had a length between ten and twelve years.

Arriving at a precise count of sunspots is not as straightforward as it might appear. Some spots are much larger than others, some sunspots partially merge together at their edges, and many spots appear in groups. In 1848 a Swiss astronomer named Rudolf Wolf devised an algorithm for making consistent counts of sunspots that allows comparisons between data from different observers across the centuries. The sunspot count derived using Wolf's formula, now known as the Wolf sunspot number, is still in use today. Wolf used data from earlier astronomers to reconstruct sunspot counts as far back as the 1755-1766 cycle, which he dubbed "cycle 1". Since then, subsequent cycles have been numbered consecutively, so the cycle that began with the 2008 solar minimum is cycle 24.

[gravitylover]

13 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Tell you what, with sea level rise happening, these ugly high dew points and droughts and wild fires in the West, I would seriously consider more efficient desalinization machines being built so we can use the water from the oceans.  It would be a muscular move to solve multiple problems at once- if we were able to use enough ocean water at a high enough rate we could solve our drought problems and negate sea level rise at the same time.  The question is how long it will be when we have machines powerful enough to desalinate water from the oceans and use it and take it out fast enough to negate sea level rise.

You'd need to remove tens of billions of gallons... Ultimately any water we use on land will eventually make its way to the ocean so there would be no effect on sea levels. 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

You'd need to remove tens of billions of gallons... Ultimately any water we use on land will eventually make its way to the ocean so there would be no effect on sea levels. 

Our recycling methods aren't exactly where they should be either.

 

[bluewave]

I wonder how the Euro seasonal was able to do so well with a summer 500mb forecast for North America issued on May 1st? It turned out to be a battle between the WAR and the ridge over Western North America. People would really take notice if the Euro ever did this well with a winter forecast.

 

[dmillz25]

Once again bearable outside at 87/63

[binbisso]

14 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Once again bearable outside at 87/63

Yes! 86* dp 59. I thought we were in for high dew points. Very comfortable out

[binbisso]

Wind very lite today.  No down slope heating.  Temps probably Max in the low nineties Today with heat index right around actual temperature

[dmillz25]

7 minutes ago, binbisso said:

Yes! 86* dp 59. I thought we were in for high dew points. Very comfortable out

Up to 91/62 here

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Up to 91/62 here

87/68 here. Once the winds pick up, the higher dew points to our south and west will work in. Thursday into Friday looks like the highest dew points ahead of the front.

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

87/68 here. Once the winds pick up, the higher dew points to our south and west will work in. Thursday into Friday looks like the highest dew points ahead of the front.

It already hit 90 here at noon and is approaching 91 here now.

But Thursday and Friday wont be as hot as these two days because the wind will come off the waters.

This is very likely the last heatwave of the year (September starts next Wednesday), although we'll very likely get at least 1 90 degree high in September, even out here, and an outside shot at 2, but a heatwave in September is extremely unlikely here.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I wonder how the Euro seasonal was able to do so well with a summer 500mb forecast for North America issued on May 1st? It turned out to be a battle between the WAR and the ridge over Western North America. People would really take notice if the Euro ever did this well with a winter forecast.

 

WAR isn't really a heat pump, it's more of a humidity pump.  Our truly hot summers come with a downsloping flow from the west which brings in true unadulterated pure heat.  Haven't had that in almost a decade.