August 2021

[doncat]

Meanwhile....very muggy 80/76 currently.

[uncle W]

59 minutes ago, rclab said:

I just receive an almost immediate response as follows:

”I have engaged NWS Eastern Regional HQ for an assessment and course of action. I’ll keep you posted but request your patience in the process. KB”

when and if I get through copy and paste 101 I’ll certainly send it to Mr. KB. Thank you. As always ….. 

Its hard to believe Upton wasn't aware of this and could have fixed it sooner...while they are at it find a better place to measure snow and snow depth...not to mention their wind reports...

[Brian5671]

10 minutes ago, justinj said:

Hope this trends east. Isaaias was enough last year

Climo argues further east think cape and islands but every system is different 

[Rtd208]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Climo argues further east think cape and islands but every system is different 

Climo might but that WAR doesn't. 

[bluewave]

75° dew point at JFK. This is the first 6 year stretch with 10 or more days reaching the 75° dew point mark. Just another part of our more subtropical climate.

Kennedy Intl   CLOUDY    81  75  

[doncat]

8 minutes ago, uncle W said:

Its hard to believe Upton wasn't aware of this and could have fixed it sooner...while they are at it find a better place to measure snow and snow depth...not to mention their wind reports...

Lol the wind reports...variable at 7 mph usually.

[Rtd208]

I think we should have a much better picture on how Henri may or may not affect our area over the next 24-36 hours. I would still learn towards mostly coastal impacts (which could be substantial) for the jersey shore and NYC metro with higher impacts across LI. 

[crossbowftw3]

3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

I think we should have a much better picture on how Henri may or may not affect our area over the next 24-36 hours. I would still learn towards mostly coastal impacts (which could be substantial) for the jersey shore and NYC metro with higher impacts across LI. 

That’s my idea as well for the moment. Ultimate reality probably doesn’t stray from that, but maybe 25-50 or so miles of error.

[jm1220]

Some serious heavy rain in central PA. Altoona airport reporting 2.16” rain in an hour. Feeder bands combining with upslope on the SE flow. 

[gravitylover]

1 hour ago, L.I.Pete said:

Yeah...it's poured at every concert I've been to so far this summer...and I'll be there, so take that into account . That said, looks like it might be dry for DeadCo Friday.

Lol. It was dry for the one we went to do maybe I'll break your streak by being at this show. 

[Stormlover74]

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

If the storm does slow down as it comes up here and pivots around, it wouldn't make landfall as a hurricane. It would probably do so as a 50-60mph tropical storm that would be known for coastal flooding due to it likely expanding its size by then and rain. The 12z GFS panels show that kind of wind when it would make it up here. It would pull in lots of cooler water quick which would weaken it. The only way it would really maintain strength is if it moves N or NW fast into the area as it strengthened where waters are warm enough or it phases into the trough somehow which is how Sandy strengthened Perfect Storm 1991 style and pivoted NW. This is no 1938-redux or anything like that. It could be pretty disruptive but not catastrophic like Sandy. Those comparisons should be thrown out.

[BombsAway1288]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If the storm does slow down as it comes up here and pivots around, it wouldn't make landfall as a hurricane. It would probably do so as a 50-60mph tropical storm that would be known for coastal flooding due to it likely expanding its size by then and rain. The 12z GFS panels show that kind of wind when it would make it up here. It would pull in lots of cooler water quick which would weaken it. The only way it would really maintain strength is if it moves N or NW fast into the area as it strengthened where waters are warm enough or it phases into the trough somehow which is how Sandy strengthened Perfect Storm 1991 style and pivoted NW. This is no 1938-redux or anything like that. It could be pretty disruptive but not catastrophic like Sandy. Those comparisons should be thrown out.

Well said.

This might be a landfalling TC somewhere in the Northeast but it won't be a super strong/windy system.

Will also be likely weakening upon approach

[Nibor]

5 hours ago, Rjay said:

[rclab]

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

Its hard to believe Upton wasn't aware of this and could have fixed it sooner...while they are at it find a better place to measure snow and snow depth...not to mention their wind reports...

I’ll certainly mention it on the next correspondence and thank you for the memory shake regarding snow measures. I seem to have the feeling that we force turned over a rock and now it will be difficult for them to step on all those bugs. As always ….

[Stormlover74]

Well the gfs was out to lunch it seems. 18z is way east

[Santa Claus]

this strengthening breeze really helps cut the humidity

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Well the gfs was out to lunch it seems. 18z is way east

Don't pay attention to off runs.

If 0z corrects then sure.

[bluewave]

While we got the high humidity today, the most impressive heat went to our north.

 

[hudsonvalley21]

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 PM AST Wed Aug 18 2021 Henri appears a little better organized this afternoon. The storm still has a central dense overcast pattern and there have been hints of an eye evident in visible satellite images. Microwave images continue to show a mid-level eye feature, but the storm does not appear quite as well organized in the low-levels, and the vortex is still titled southward with height. The latest Dvorak estimates range from 55 to 67 kt, and based on that data the initial intensity is nudged up to 60 kt, just below hurricane strength. Henri is moving just south of due west at a slightly faster pace now, 265/8 kt. The storm is expected to continue westward for another 36 hours or so as it moves in the flow on the south side of a mid-level ridge. A gradual turn to the north is forecast to begin on Friday when a cutoff low forms over the Ohio Valley and the northeastern U.S. This general northward motion should continue through the weekend as another ridge builds to the east of Henri over the northwestern Atlantic. The models continue their westward shift, and the NHC track forecast has again been adjusted in that direction and no longer shows a northeastward motion out to sea. In particular, the westward adjustment at day 5 was a sizable 150 miles, and even with this shift the NHC forecast is still a little to the east of some of the consensus aids. NOAA Gulfstream IV missions and special weather balloon soundings have been scheduled, and it is hoped that this additional data will help the models handle the evolving steering pattern. Given the uncertainty in the longer range track forecast, users should be prepared for additional adjustments to the NHC track prediction in future forecast cycles.

[PuraVida]

18z GEFS still showing stronger ensemble members west

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

That’s not true. That track is a Bob track with a much weaker storm. you need significant westward movement for all of us to “get it.”

But Bob moved in a NNE to NE direction, it was a conventional storm on a conventional track

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

75° dew point at JFK. This is the first 6 year stretch with 10 or more days reaching the 75° dew point mark. Just another part of our more subtropical climate.

Kennedy Intl   CLOUDY    81  75  

how long before subtropical goes full on tropical?

 

[LibertyBell]

39 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

this strengthening breeze really helps cut the humidity

thats the way to beat high humidity, have a screaming 20-30 mph wind lol.  I dont think heat index even takes into account wind speed (or amount of sunshine or sun angle for that matter)

 

[donsutherland1]

Today saw partly to mostly cloudy skies. The temperature rose into the lower and middle 80s. Philadelphia was the hot spot in recording its 30th 90° reading of the year with a high of 91°.

Heavy rain associated with Fred will cause flooding in parts of central and upstate New York State overnight. Some showers and thunderstorms are possible in and around the New York City and Newark areas.

Tomorrow will be partly cloudy. Showers and thundershowers remain possible. Temperatures will rise into the middle 80s across much of the region.

Out West, Bismarck reached 100° for a record 15th day this year today. That broke the longstanding record of 14 days, which was set during 1936.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around August 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September.

The SOI was -3.70 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.562 today.

On August 16 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 2.680 (RMM). The August 15-adjusted amplitude was 2.526 (RMM).

The preliminary amplitude set yet another August record for Phase 2. Prior to 2021, the record was 2.329, which was set on August 16, 2009.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.6° (0.6° above normal).

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

If the storm does slow down as it comes up here and pivots around, it wouldn't make landfall as a hurricane. It would probably do so as a 50-60mph tropical storm that would be known for coastal flooding due to it likely expanding its size by then and rain. The 12z GFS panels show that kind of wind when it would make it up here. It would pull in lots of cooler water quick which would weaken it. The only way it would really maintain strength is if it moves N or NW fast into the area as it strengthened where waters are warm enough or it phases into the trough somehow which is how Sandy strengthened Perfect Storm 1991 style and pivoted NW. This is no 1938-redux or anything like that. It could be pretty disruptive but not catastrophic like Sandy. Those comparisons should be thrown out.

Very very true. This is why carol has always intrigued me. Because it didn’t follow the 38 playbook. It was home grown and not moving at 60mph but still managed to make landfall as a major. So if Henri happens to take advantage of the window of favorable conditions it will have when it’s crossing the Gulf Stream and overachieve there is a scenario where this is still a formidable hurricane at landfall. Ohhhh and waters are way above historical levels so our normal hurricane buffer isn’t as strong as it used to be 

[forkyfork]

i would like a tornado plz

[Tatamy]

29 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i would like a tornado plz

I second that request.  Plenty of lightning so far with these storms.

[Rtd208]

Great thread by Tomer Burg.

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Very very true. This is why carol has always intrigued me. Because it didn’t follow the 38 playbook. It was home grown and not moving at 60mph but still managed to make landfall as a major. So if Henri happens to take advantage of the window of favorable conditions it will have when it’s crossing the Gulf Stream and overachieve there is a scenario where this is still a formidable hurricane at landfall. Ohhhh and waters are way above historical levels so our normal hurricane buffer isn’t as strong as it used to be 

Carol took advantage of a mid level jet to charge it up as it headed north. Same with Sandy. This one wouldn’t have that advantage from what we can tell. It would spin around for a while and up well cooler water so it weakens. The models that bring it west slow it down also because it gets stuck under the ridge. A major hurricane (any hurricane really) has to be hauling as it gets up here. And there’s still a good chance at this lead time the interaction changes and it gets booted out to sea anyway. The threat to us at this point is still fairly low and even if it does hit it would likely weaken a lot before reaching us.