Rjay Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 In reference to Henri: Definitely could be some coastal impacts along the jersey shore and the NYC metro with higher impacts as you head east over LI. Going to be interesting to watch over the next day or two to see how things may play out for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 6z hmon 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 HWRF is also west but hits Nantucket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 HWRF looked like it was going out to sea. But then last minute it gets pulled NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: HWRF looked like it was going out to sea. But then last minute it gets pulled NW. Yep further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Hmon right into NYC harbor 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Not to derail Henri, but disappointing Fred’s remnant moved so far west. The garden was looking for a drink; looks like it’s time to irrigate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 50 minutes ago, Rjay said: That cone might have to be moved west a touch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Hmon right into NYC harbor Going to feel like tracking a winter costal system the next few days 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 06z HMON winds at 114 hours 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 36 minutes ago, bluewave said: It would be wild if Henri made landfall somewhere in the Northeast.There hasn’t been a known case of a hurricane hitting the region after passing within 150 miles of Bermuda. There was one weak tropical storm that reached Cape Cod in 1923. So the legend of the WAR would grow even stronger if Henri made landfall as a hurricane. All tracks of hurricanes and tropical storms passing within 150 miles of Bermuda You dont really believe any of these wild solutions like the HMON do you Chris? The ones that have the storm swinging NW into NJ or NYC or Long Island? There isn't a record block in place like there was for Sandy and those kinds of scenarios are more probably in October, not August. Dont you think the furthest west this could go is Cape Cod? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 15 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: HWRF looked like it was going out to sea. But then last minute it gets pulled NW. From the 0z run to the 06z run of the HWRF the center is moved a full 3 degrees west in longitude. That is huge. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Just now, Tatamy said: From the 0z run to the 06z run of the HWRF the center is moved a full 3 degrees west in longitude. That is huge. that's unprecedented lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: You dont really believe any of these wild solutions like the HMON to you Chris? The ones that have the storm swinging NW into NJ or NYC or Long Island? There isn't a record block in place like there was for Sandy and those kinds of scenarios are more probably in October, not August. Dont you think the furthest west this could go is Cape Cod? There are no absolutes as far as track goes with this one. The models are still working it. There is a full moon on Sunday morning so the coastal flood threat is very real. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 77/ 73 humidity's here. Fred riding west of the area merging with hung up boundary/front and clouds continue with showers/rain today. Brunt of the heaviest rain stays west as it seems right now. Western Atlantic ridge anchored along the east coast, warmer and humid weather continues. Clouds mainly in the way of heat / 90s but possible longer breaks of sunshine tomorrow (8/19) could be the next shot at 90s. Fri (8/20) - Mon (8/23) : more of the same warm / cloudy and humid but where there breaks and periods of sunshine could see temps get to the 90s. Weakness under the ridge could cause onshore flow with any heat west / inland to fit the seasonal / year theme. Next week - ridging looks overall in to the east and flow flattens abit towards mid week. Overall warmer than normal and humid looks to be the theme into next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EUS/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EUS-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 11 minutes ago, Tatamy said: There are no absolutes as far as track goes with this one. The models are still working it. There is a full moon on Sunday morning so the coastal flood threat is very real. Sounds more like Shades of Sandy not Bob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 14 minutes ago, Tatamy said: From the 0z run to the 06z run of the HWRF the center is moved a full 3 degrees west in longitude. That is huge. The astonishing thing is seeing it move NW even up at out latitude. It was abreast of eastern LI on the HMON and then moved close to Jamaica Bay lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Talk about crazy tracks, hurricane Esther in 1961. It came within miles of going ashore in eastern New England, then made a quick eastern turn out to sea, then turned south, then west and then north. It made a complete loop only to go back over the Cape Cod area. So in reality the same storm affected the same area twice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 I’m leaving for school today so it’s quite fitting that we’d be threatened by hurricane, that would have gone way OTS 99.99% of the time, within days after I leave 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 8 minutes ago, lee59 said: Talk about crazy tracks, hurricane Esther in 1961. It came within miles of going ashore in eastern New England, then made a quick eastern turn out to sea, then turned south, then west and then north. It made a complete loop only to go back over the Cape Cod area. So in reality the same storm affected the same area twice. Sounds a bit like Edouard. But that was such a tease lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 General Info, Just in Case............. Coney Island High Tide on Sunday PM is +6.05' at 8:38pm. Too similar to Sandy timing. Eke! JB is keen on this. SD is not even cautious. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfs/2021081806/slp41.png 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: Still too early to know how far west this can come. The HMON isn’t reliable beyond a few days. But the models have been shifting closer to SE New England in recent runs. https://www.news4jax.com/weather/2020/08/24/what-is-the-best-hurricane-forecast-model/ With the NW track this seems a lot more similar to Sandy than Bob though. Bob was a conventional hurricane on a typical NNE to NE track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The GFS maintains impressive tropical structure for a system so far north. I think that has allot to do with the fact that it’s not being forced up the coast after a Carolina hit later in the season via a trough. That scenario always seems to really degrade storms. Regardless of direct impact, days of large swells will cause beach erosion and lead to beach closures right during prime beach season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 This is all still a week away folks. Wait a few more days to buy the plywood and sandbags 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: This is all still a week away folks. Wait a few more days to buy the plywood and sandbags really 4-5 days because it's in the Sunday-Monday timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: This is all still a week away folks. Wait a few more days to buy the plywood and sandbags With a track like this higher tides will begin to cause flooding in susceptible coastal areas Saturday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 So the WAR keeps the heaviest remains of Fred west of tri-state area yet the possible upcoming system stays offshore and goes in New Egnland? Or does that keep pushing west with each model run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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