August 2021

[Rjay]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I HATE sea breezes and I love the land breeze that gave us this night dry heat day.

By the way I've been thinking about something, according to thermodynamics doesn't heat flow from hot to cold?  So shouldn't that imply that sea breezes should be rare (since they involve cold air over water going to hot land?)  How does the sea breeze manage to disobey thermodynamics laws?

 

Nothing beats a sea breeze in the summer.  I have no need for 95+ heat. 

[Rjay]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

wow you weren't as hot as I was and yet I'm closer to the ocean (2 miles from it), hit 92 here to complete the heat wave.  Why the discrepancy with the JFK temp on Thursday? It was 91 here that day and 94 on Friday, the hottest of the summer so far.

90 was my high yesterday.  

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 80degs.(74/87), or +5.

GFS has 8/21-27 penciled in for all 90's.

Grace not following Fred and hits Texas instead, in a week.

Last 3 days here were 95, 88, 92.

73*(50%RH) here at 6am, scattered clouds.         79* by Noon.         Reached 84* around 5:30pm.

[bluewave]

The only part of our area that is having a hot summer relative to recent years is NE NJ. The average temperature at Newark through August 14th is 4th warmest. This ranking is mostly based on the record heat experienced back in June. July was cooler and wetter for the whole area than recent years. Due to the strong onshore flow so far, JFK is tied for its 2nd coolest summer since 2010. The high of 94 this year at JFK is the 2nd coolest experienced since 2010. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 14	Missing Count
1	2010-08-14	79.4	0
2	2011-08-14	78.7	0
3	2020-08-14	78.0	0
4	2021-08-14	77.9	0
5	2012-08-14	77.2	0
6	2016-08-14	77.1	0
7	2019-08-14	76.8	0
8	2013-08-14	76.6	0
9	2018-08-14	76.1	0
10	2015-08-14	75.9	0
11	2014-08-14	75.1	0
12	2017-08-14	74.9	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 14	Missing Count
1	2020-08-14	79.8	0
2	2010-08-14	79.6	0
3	2016-08-14	78.2	0
4	2019-08-14	77.5	0
-	2018-08-14	77.5	0
-	2012-08-14	77.5	0
5	2013-08-14	77.2	0
6	2021-08-14	77.0	0
7	2011-08-14	76.9	0
8	2017-08-14	75.9	0
-	2015-08-14	75.9	0
9	2014-08-14	75.0	0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 14	Missing Count
1	2010-08-14	77.6	0
2	2011-08-14	76.3	0
3	2020-08-14	75.9	0
-	2016-08-14	75.9	0
4	2015-08-14	75.5	0
5	2012-08-14	75.4	0
6	2019-08-14	75.1	0
7	2013-08-14	74.8	0
8	2021-08-14	74.0	0
-	2018-08-14	74.0	0
-	2017-08-14	74.0	0
9	2014-08-14	73.9	0

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Highest Max Temperature Jan 1 to Aug 14	Missing Count
1	2011-08-14	103	0
2	2010-08-14	101	0
3	2013-08-14	100	0
4	2019-08-14	99	0
-	2012-08-14	99	0
5	2016-08-14	98	0
6	2020-08-14	97	0
7	2017-08-14	95	0
-	2015-08-14	95	0
8	2021-08-14	94	0
-	2018-08-14	94	0
9	2014-08-14	91	0

 

[coastalplainsnowman]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

Nothing beats a sea breeze in the summer.  I have no need for 95+ heat. 

I totally agree.  Most of on the south shore take that afternoon cooldown for granted.  I know I'm working with a small sample and somewhat anecdotal here, but whenever I'm on the northern part of the island in say Smithtown, Hauppauge, etc, at an outdoor gathering, the afternoons there on hot days are so different than at home, where much of the time we get the onshore flow.  Same as I remember when spending time in the summer in central/northern NJ.

It's our small reward here for dealing with that same onshore flow that makes late April / May days, especially afternoons, miserable here when they are beautiful as close by as, say, East Meadow.  Also for ruining the biggest winter storms that get a little too close (yes I know sometimes we benefit in brush-by events but that is more rare...)

[bluewave]

The other difference this summer is that the bouys south of Long Island are running about 5° cooler than the last few years. There have been many days of 73°-74° water temperatures. Recent summers featured record peak SSTs around 80°. So the sea breeze has been more effective this year at cooling the South Shore. This is only the 3rd time on record that the highest temperature of the season at JFK was in May. If the JFK summer high of 91° holds, then it will be the 3rd coolest of all-time.
 

Monthly Highest Max Temperature for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Season
1969	99	91	97	97	91	83	99
1996	95	91	87	86	90	77	95
1987	95	92	95	93	84	71	95
2021	94	91	90	91	M	M	94

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jun through Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	1967	89	0
2	1951	90	0
3	2021	91	17
-	2014	91	0
-	2004	91	0
-	1996	91	0
-	1985	91	0
-	1960	91	0

[coastalplainsnowman]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I HATE sea breezes and I love the land breeze that gave us this night dry heat day.

By the way I've been thinking about something, according to thermodynamics doesn't heat flow from hot to cold?  So shouldn't that imply that sea breezes should be rare (since they involve cold air over water going to hot land?)  How does the sea breeze manage to disobey thermodynamics laws?

 

Having seen this topic in my kids Regents Earth Science more times than I can remember, I'm going to go way out of my depth here and answer, using a regents study guide to support me, specifically Barron's Let's Review:  Earth Science the Physical Setting, p. 574 lol, which, yes, I had nearby.

"During the day land surfaces heat up faster than water.  The higher temperatures over the land result in lower air pressures, while the lower temperatures over the water result in higher air pressures there.  A wind develops that blows from the high pressure area over the water toward the low pressure area over the land."

I must have time on my hands this morning lol

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be partly sunny and cooler today. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 80s in most of the region.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 82°

Newark: 87°

Philadelphia: 85°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 83.6°; 15-Year: 83.6°

Newark: 30-Year: 85.0°; 15-Year: 85.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 86.1°; 15-Year: 86.0°

Cooler conditions will persist through much of the week.

[qg_omega]

It’s been a very strange summer where Newark has been very hot but for the rest of the area, hot days are the exception 

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

It’s been a very strange summer where Newark has been very hot but for the rest of the area, hot days are the exception 

The whole area around Newark has been warmer than the rest of the region this summer. The urbanized NE NJ corridor has had 27-32 days reaching 90°. Last summer it was areas further north and east of there that had the most anomalous heat. 
 

90° days

Newark………….……33

Caldwell…………...…32

Harrison………………31

New Brunswick……29

Somerset…………….27

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, Rjay said:

I understand many people have their own definitions of hot and cold weather but in the end I just go by the numbers.  Whatever they are, they are.  

it's because minimum temps are determined by things other than heat, like humidity, urban heat island, etc.  Also, I tangibly feel hotter when there are more hot days.  The summers that stay in my memory the longest are the ones with no breaks and the most number of hot days.  

[LibertyBell]

45 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The whole area around Newark has been warmer than the rest of the region this summer. The urbanized NE NJ corridor has had 27-32 days reaching 90°. Last summer it was areas further north and east of there that had the most anomalous heat. 
 

90° days

Newark………….……33

Caldwell…………...…32

Harrison………………31

New Brunswick……29

Somerset…………….27

Question is WHY is the area of heat limited to such a small region?  WHY can't we get the entire eastern half of the country to experience all time historic heat? And when was the last time that happened- 2010?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Having seen this topic in my kids Regents Earth Science more times than I can remember, I'm going to go way out of my depth here and answer, using a regents study guide to support me, specifically Barron's Let's Review:  Earth Science the Physical Setting, p. 574 lol, which, yes, I had nearby.

"During the day land surfaces heat up faster than water.  The higher temperatures over the land result in lower air pressures, while the lower temperatures over the water result in higher air pressures there.  A wind develops that blows from the high pressure area over the water toward the low pressure area over the land."

I must have time on my hands this morning lol

 

figured it would have something to do with pressure lol.

it's why you need a strong land breeze to overcome it.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The other difference this summer is that the bouys south of Long Island are running about 5° cooler than the last few years. There have been many days of 73°-74° water temperatures. Recent summers featured record peak SSTs around 80°. So the sea breeze has been more effective this year at cooling the South Shore. This is only the 3rd time on record that the highest temperature of the season at JFK was in May. If the JFK summer high of 91° holds, then it will be the 3rd coolest of all-time.
 

Monthly Highest Max Temperature for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Season
1969	99	91	97	97	91	83	99
1996	95	91	87	86	90	77	95
1987	95	92	95	93	84	71	95
2021	94	91	90	91	M	M	94

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jun through Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	1967	89	0
2	1951	90	0
3	2021	91	17
-	2014	91	0
-	2004	91	0
-	1996	91	0
-	1985	91	0
-	1960	91	0

Chris, wasn't 1996 one of those other times that it was hottest in May?

Also, why are the SST much cooler this year?  I thought they had been running warmer?

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The other difference this summer is that the bouys south of Long Island are running about 5° cooler than the last few years. There have been many days of 73°-74° water temperatures. Recent summers featured record peak SSTs around 80°. So the sea breeze has been more effective this year at cooling the South Shore. This is only the 3rd time on record that the highest temperature of the season at JFK was in May. If the JFK summer high of 91° holds, then it will be the 3rd coolest of all-time.
 

Monthly Highest Max Temperature for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Season
1969	99	91	97	97	91	83	99
1996	95	91	87	86	90	77	95
1987	95	92	95	93	84	71	95
2021	94	91	90	91	M	M	94

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jun through Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	1967	89	0
2	1951	90	0
3	2021	91	17
-	2014	91	0
-	2004	91	0
-	1996	91	0
-	1985	91	0
-	1960	91	0

wow 1996 and this summer are a close match around here, except it was a little cooler then but just as humid

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

I totally agree.  Most of on the south shore take that afternoon cooldown for granted.  I know I'm working with a small sample and somewhat anecdotal here, but whenever I'm on the northern part of the island in say Smithtown, Hauppauge, etc, at an outdoor gathering, the afternoons there on hot days are so different than at home, where much of the time we get the onshore flow.  Same as I remember when spending time in the summer in central/northern NJ.

It's our small reward here for dealing with that same onshore flow that makes late April / May days, especially afternoons, miserable here when they are beautiful as close by as, say, East Meadow.  Also for ruining the biggest winter storms that get a little too close (yes I know sometimes we benefit in brush-by events but that is more rare...)

dry heat is awesome, nothing as therapeutic as 100 degrees and low humidity, it gives you a natural high.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, Rjay said:

Nothing beats a sea breeze in the summer.  I have no need for 95+ heat. 

95 is meh, 100 and very dry air is what you want, it's wonderful to run in.  I get a natural high when it hits 100, it's like now I'll remember this summer forever.

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Also, why are the SST much cooler this year?  I thought they had been running warmer?

The SSTs off the whole East Coast are much cooler than last year.

 

[SACRUS]

 

75/55 here and partly sunny.  Front nearby and i think we see more clouds than some are forecasting but otherwise a splendid day with mush less humidity.   More of the same tomorrow with clouds and humidity slowly increasing.  The Western Atlantic Ridge anchored along the east coast and bubbles back up Tue (8/17) - Thu (8/19) but essentially it pushes the hung up front back into the region so clouds  storms and humidity / warm the story.  

By Fri (8/20) - Sun (8/22) flow flattens a bit and some heat pushed through the NE and pending on how much sun / dryness we should see more 90s.  Euro and GFS have a cutoff moving through later Sun and Mon (8/23) as ridge build over into Southern Canada. 

Beyond there 8/23 and onward looking overall warmer than normal with hints of more heat later that week.

 

 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, bluewave said:

The SSTs off the whole East Coast are much cooler than last year.

 

I wonder if tropical activity will be much more limited then

 

[weathermedic]

Temp-83 DP-45 at my station here in Sheepshead Bay Brooklyn

[LoboLeader1]

As of 5:30 PM here...........TEMP 85/DP 53/RH 40%

[bluewave]

High dew points return on Tuesday as the next 594 dm ridge flexes. But clouds and convection will keep the high temperatures more modest than we typically see with such a strong WAR. Several days of higher dew points in the forecast.

 

[donsutherland1]

In the wake of yesterday's cold front, today saw temperatures hold in the lower and middle 80s across the region. Much of the upcoming week will be a few degrees cooler with highs mainly topping out in the upper 70s and lower 80s.

In addition, parts of the region could receive some rainfall on Thursday from Fred. The heaviest rain is likely to fall south and west of New York City.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September.

The SOI was +0.49 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.433 today.

On August 13 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.305 (RMM). The August 12-adjusted amplitude was 2.419 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.3° (0.3° above normal).

 

[JustinRP37]

12 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I wonder if tropical activity will be much more limited then

 

It is a deceptive map. It is 1-year change in SST map, not a SST anomaly. Last year was very warm, and this year is still above average too. 

[SACRUS]

8/15

EWR: 87
PHL: 87
New Brnswck: 86
LGA: 84
ISP: 83
TTN: 83
TEB: 83
NYC: 83
ACY: 82
JFK: 82
BLM: 80

[LibertyBell]

58 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

8/15

EWR: 87
PHL: 87
New Brnswck: 86
LGA: 84
ISP: 83
TTN: 83
TEB: 83
NYC: 83
ACY: 82
JFK: 82
BLM: 80

Heat is over for now.  Next bout of heat begins Aug 20?

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be partly sunny and a bit cooler today. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 81°

Newark: 84°

Philadelphia: 84°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 83.5°; 15-Year: 83.4°

Newark: 30-Year: 84.9°; 15-Year: 85.1°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 86.0°; 15-Year: 85.8°

Cooler conditions will persist through much of the week.

[CIK62]

 The next 8 days are averaging 79degs.(73/84), or +4.

T's down---but due to clouds and unknown amounts of rain during the next 7 days.     Expect limited sun.

Fred stronger into Florida PH.    Grace going west into Mexico?     Henri dead before birth?

73*(70%RH) here at 6am, overcast.   Reached 80* about 5pm.

[bluewave]

21 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I wonder if tropical activity will be much more limited then

 

The SSTs across the tropical development areas of the Atlantic are still well above normal. The map I posted was just in reference to the local SSTs and more cooling sea breezes than last year. We are already off to another much faster than normal start to the tropical season.