August 2021

[CIK62]

July was Earth's hottest month on record

(Source:  The Hill, 8/13/21)

July 2021 was the planet’s hottest month ever recorded, according to data released Friday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

NOAA’s numbers indicate the earth’s combined land and ocean-surface temperature was 1.67 degrees Fahrenheit above the 20th century average of 60.4 degrees. The temperature was 0.02 degrees above the previous hottest month, July 2016, after 2019 and 2020 matched the 2016 record.

The Northern Hemisphere, meanwhile, saw an all-time high July land-surface-only temperature at 2.77 degrees above average. The previous record, July 2012, was 2.14 degrees above average.

Asia also saw its single hottest July on record, according to NOAA, while Europe tied its second-highest, July 2010.

Arctic sea ice coverage, meanwhile, was at its fourth-lowest level for July in the 43 years NOAA has kept records. July 2012, 2019 and 2020 were the only years Arctic sea ice was smaller. However, Antarctic sea ice saw its largest extent since 2015 and the overall eighth-highest extent on record.

“In this case, first place is the worst place to be,” NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said in a statement. “July is typically the world’s warmest month of the year, but July 2021 outdid itself as the hottest July and month ever recorded. This new record adds to the disturbing and disruptive path that climate change has set for the globe.”

Based on both the latest data and numbers from June, 2021 will likely end up one of the 10 warmest recorded years, according to NOAA, citing a projection from the National Centers for Environmental Information.

The data’s release comes days after a long-awaited report from the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which issued a dire warning on global temperatures. The report projected average global temperatures 1.5 degrees higher than the pre-industrial baseline by 2040, past the previously established point the U.N. agency said would result in major impacts on weather, biodiversity and food availability.

[Rjay]

But Central Park is BN

[forkyfork]

4 hours ago, RippleEffect said:

So hot today thank you @forkyforkwe need normal summer temps back please.

these are normal summer temps 

[SACRUS]

 

8/13

EWR: 99
LGA: 98
New Brnswck: 96
PHL: 95
TEB: 95
BLM: 95
NYC: 94
TTN: 94
ACY: 93
ISP: 91
JFK: 91

[Cfa]

96/74 split today.

Warmest day since 7/28/20 which saw 96/80.

Both June (94) and August (96) have higher maxes than July (92) this summer.

[donsutherland1]

Temperatures surged into the 90s across most of the region today.

90° Days for Select Cities (through August 13):

Albany: 4 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days)
Allentown: 21 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days)
Baltimore: 40 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days)
Boston: 19 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days)
Bridgeport: 10 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days)
Burlington: 9 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days)
Harrisburg: 28 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days)
Hartford: 20 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days)
Islip: 5 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days)
New York City-JFK: 7 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days)
New York City-LGA: 20 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days)
New York City-NYC: 14 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days)
Newark: 31 (2020: 32 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days)
Philadelphia: 28 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days)
Scranton: 16 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days)
Washington, DC: 37 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days)

New York City-Newark Average: 18 (2020: 22 days)
...Expected: 20 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data)

A cold front will move across the region tomorrow. It could trigger showers and thunderstorms. Sunday will turn cooler. At least the first half of next week will likely see near to somewhat below normal readings.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September.

The SOI was +3.34 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.008 today.

On August 11 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 2.408 (RMM). The August 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.962 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 54% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.2° (0.2° above normal).

 

[Rtd208]

High for the day yesterday was 99 here.

Current temp 82/DP 71/RH 70%

[RippleEffect]

82 degrees 6am

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 81degs.(74/88), or +6.

Starting Tues., chances of rain are higher than the average 30% thru Sat. at least.     Models can not decide where the TS remnants are going however, so stand by for a Page 1 Replate.

Grace set to be stronger than Fred and on about the 22nd, be where Fred will be on the 16th.        Fred remnants end up in Ohio Valley in 5 days?

Summer to date is +0.20{74 Days}[75.3 to date]

77*(84%RH) here at 6am, scattered clouds.      80* by 9am.       82* at 10am.       84*(64%RH) by Noon.        88*(58%RH) by 2pm.        89* at 3pm.      91*(52%RH) at 4pm  HI = 98.     92*(50%RH) at 4:30pm.

Only reached 88 here yesterday.

[lee59]

30 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

The next 8 days are averaging 81degs.(74/88), or +6.

77*(84%RH) here at 6am, scattered clouds.

Only reached 88 yesterday.

This doesn't seem right.

[bluewave]

The strongest heat was west of the Hudson this summer. Newark is currently at the 8th warmest summer position. LGA is currently at the 11th warmest summer temperature. ISP is similar to the LGA ranking at 12 warmest. The much warmer climate allowed a place like ISP to still rank this high even with only a+1.6…June….-0.4…July….-0.7…August. Last summer was an east of the Hudson heat pattern with LGA and ISP top 3 warmest through August 13th and Newark in 6th place.
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 13	Missing Count
1	2010-08-13	79.5	0
2	1994-08-13	79.3	0
3	1993-08-13	79.1	0
4	2011-08-13	78.8	0
5	1988-08-13	78.2	0
6	2020-08-13	78.0	0
7	1999-08-13	77.9	0
8	2021-08-13	77.8	0
9	2005-08-13	77.7	0
10	1973-08-13	77.4	0

 

Time Series Summary for New York-LGA Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 13	Missing Count
1	2020-08-13	79.8	0
2	2010-08-13	79.7	0
3	1999-08-13	78.3	0
4	2016-08-13	78.1	0
5	2006-08-13	77.9	0
-	2005-08-13	77.9	0
-	1994-08-13	77.9	0
6	2019-08-13	77.5	0
-	2018-08-13	77.5	0
-	2012-08-13	77.5	0
-	2008-08-13	77.5	0
-	1966-08-13	77.5	0
7	2013-08-13	77.4	0
8	1952-08-13	77.2	0
9	1991-08-13	77.1	0
-	1949-08-13	77.1	0
10	2011-08-13	77.0	0
11	2021-08-13	76.9	0
-	2002-08-13	76.9	0
-	1995-08-13	76.9	0
-	1988-08-13	76.9	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 13	Missing Count
1	2010-08-13	75.2	0
-	1999-08-13	75.2	0
2	2020-08-13	74.8	0
3	2011-08-13	74.4	0
4	2019-08-13	74.1	0
5	2013-08-13	73.8	0
-	1994-08-13	73.8	0
6	2016-08-13	73.6	0
-	2008-08-13	73.6	0
7	2012-08-13	73.4	0
8	2006-08-13	73.3	0
-	1966-08-13	73.3	0
9	2005-08-13	73.2	0
10	2018-08-13	73.1	0
11	2014-08-13	73.0	0
-	1991-08-13	73.0	0
-	1988-08-13	73.0	0
12	2021-08-13	72.9	0

[lee59]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The strongest heat was west of the Hudson this summer. Newark is currently at the 8th warmest summer position. LGA is currently at the 11th warmest summer temperature. ISP is similar to the LGA ranking at 12 warmest. The much warmer climate allowed a place like ISP to still rank this high even with only a+1.6…June….-0.4…July….-0.7…August. Last summer was an east of the Hudson heat pattern with LGA and ISP top 3 warmest through August 13th and Newark in 6th place.
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 13	Missing Count
1	2010-08-13	79.5	0
2	1994-08-13	79.3	0
3	1993-08-13	79.1	0
4	2011-08-13	78.8	0
5	1988-08-13	78.2	0
6	2020-08-13	78.0	0
7	1999-08-13	77.9	0
8	2021-08-13	77.8	0
9	2005-08-13	77.7	0
10	1973-08-13	77.4	0

 

Time Series Summary for New York-LGA Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 13	Missing Count
1	2020-08-13	79.8	0
2	2010-08-13	79.7	0
3	1999-08-13	78.3	0
4	2016-08-13	78.1	0
5	2006-08-13	77.9	0
-	2005-08-13	77.9	0
-	1994-08-13	77.9	0
6	2019-08-13	77.5	0
-	2018-08-13	77.5	0
-	2012-08-13	77.5	0
-	2008-08-13	77.5	0
-	1966-08-13	77.5	0
7	2013-08-13	77.4	0
8	1952-08-13	77.2	0
9	1991-08-13	77.1	0
-	1949-08-13	77.1	0
10	2011-08-13	77.0	0
11	2021-08-13	76.9	0
-	2002-08-13	76.9	0
-	1995-08-13	76.9	0
-	1988-08-13	76.9	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 13	Missing Count
1	2010-08-13	75.2	0
-	1999-08-13	75.2	0
2	2020-08-13	74.8	0
3	2011-08-13	74.4	0
4	2019-08-13	74.1	0
5	2013-08-13	73.8	0
-	1994-08-13	73.8	0
6	2016-08-13	73.6	0
-	2008-08-13	73.6	0
7	2012-08-13	73.4	0
8	2006-08-13	73.3	0
-	1966-08-13	73.3	0
9	2005-08-13	73.2	0
10	2018-08-13	73.1	0
11	2014-08-13	73.0	0
-	1991-08-13	73.0	0
-	1988-08-13	73.0	0
12	2021-08-13	72.9	0

The one thing that, as you probably know, bothers me about these stats is the numbers. Yes Islip is the 12th warmest summer in temperature but it is actually the 17th warmest summer. 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be partly sunny and very warm into the afternoon. Afterward, showers and thunderstorms are likely as a cold front crosses the region. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 80s and lower 90s.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 88°

Newark: 93°

Philadelphia: 91°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 83.7°; 15-Year: 83.8°

Newark: 30-Year: 85.0°; 15-Year: 85.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 86.2°; 15-Year: 86.1°

It will be come cooler tomorrow into next week.

[bluewave]

Following a brief break, the 70s dew points will return by Tuesday or Wednesday.

 

 

[SACRUS]

82/ 71.  Looks like a few hours of partly sunny before more clouds and scattered storms move in and front clears.    Sunday through Thu (8/19) warm and humid but likely limited chance for 90s even in the warmer spots.   Freds remnants and hung up front south of the area will likely lead to clouds and pop up storm chances mainly Tue - Thu. 

Beyond there the Western Atlantic Ridge remains anchored off the Atlantic coast.  By Fri (8/20) and into next weekend Sun (8/22) looks like the next chance at 90s.   

From there the as we head to the close of the month Mon (8/23) and beyond it continues to look warmer than normal / and likely wetter.  Tropics look to gear up as well with EC risk increasing. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

The one thing that, as you probably know, bothers me about these stats is the numbers. Yes Islip is the 12th warmest summer in temperature but it is actually the 17th warmest summer. 

You can use dense rank sorting so there are no gaps between ranks.

https://docs.microsoft.com/en-us/sql/t-sql/functions/dense-rank-transact-sql?view=sql-server-ver15

If two or more rows have the same rank value in the same partition, each of those rows will receive the same rank. For example, if the two top salespeople have the same SalesYTD value, they will both have a rank value of one. The salesperson with the next highest SalesYTD will have a rank value of two. This exceeds the number of distinct rows that come before the row in question by one. Therefore, the numbers returned by the DENSE_RANK function do not have gaps, and always have consecutive rank values.

 

[LoboLeader1]

Currently 83 here

[lee59]

44 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You can use dense rank sorting so there are no gaps between ranks.

https://docs.microsoft.com/en-us/sql/t-sql/functions/dense-rank-transact-sql?view=sql-server-ver15

If two or more rows have the same rank value in the same partition, each of those rows will receive the same rank. For example, if the two top salespeople have the same SalesYTD value, they will both have a rank value of one. The salesperson with the next highest SalesYTD will have a rank value of two. This exceeds the number of distinct rows that come before the row in question by one. Therefore, the numbers returned by the DENSE_RANK function do not have gaps, and always have consecutive rank values.

 

I understand bluewave, there are just 2 ways at looking at those stats and to me they are both correct in their own way. For example, lets say you are in a car race with 5 cars, 4 tie for first and then there is the last car. Well you could say the last car was 2nd and if you went by time that is correct. However the actual finishing spot is 5th or last. Now Islip certainly did have the 12th highest temperature this summer but that can be misleading in that you might think it to be the 12th warmest summer ever. Not so, ties now count and Islip had the 17th warmest summer because 16 other years were warmer. That is all I am saying.

[Cfa]

90/77 (HI 102). Officially a heat wave.

This morning’s low of 77 might be the warmest so far this year. May not hold through the entire day though.

[psv88]

89/73 here, low of 75 overnight, briefly hit 90 earlier, so 4 day heatwave 

[nycwinter]

9 minutes ago, psv88 said:

89/73 here, low of 75 overnight, briefly hit 90 earlier, so 4 day heatwave 

nyc only had  2 days of over 90 degree heat and doubtful we hit 90 today so officially nyc would not have had a heatwave..

[nycwinter]

10 minutes ago, psv88 said:

89/73 here, low of 75 overnight, briefly hit 90 earlier, so 4 day heatwave 

are you sure your temp is accurate i doubt  you hit 90 earlier..

[dmillz25]

1 minute ago, nycwinter said:

are you sure your temp is accurate i doubt  you hit 90 earlier..

I see a few 88-89s in his area so it may be right

[lee59]

Temperatures are getting warmer than I thought out here on the Island. Many temps now in the upper 80s

[Stormlover74]

Ewr 91, 4 day heatwave 

[LoboLeader1]

85/RH 59%/DP 68  as of noon today. Good shot to reach the 90 degree mark again this afternoon.

[psv88]

41 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

are you sure your temp is accurate i doubt  you hit 90 earlier..

Yes. Another LI poster at 90z

FRG, to my south is at 89. So yes…

 

[psv88]

[uofmiami]

43 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

nyc only had  2 days of over 90 degree heat and doubtful we hit 90 today so officially nyc would not have had a heatwave..

It’ll be close today depending on the when the clouds arrive. I’m 87 already in Syosset and if I get 90 today it’ll be a heatwave for me. 

[FPizz]

84 here now after a high of 89.