August 2021

[Cfa]

87/68 split here.

[Rjay]

Wide range of possibilities tn.  I'd lean towards the drier guidance but *shrug*.

[forkyfork]

15 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Wild range of possibilities tn.  I'd lean towards the drier guidance but *shrug*.

struggling to come north

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The South Shore barrier islands get the cooling sea breeze influence first. Then it makes it to sunrise followed  by the Southern State snd Hempstead turnpike. The big 90 day leader on Long Island in near and north of the LIE. 

I wish there was some kind of isotherm map that shows which places get it at the same time.  I'm 2 miles north of the barrier islands, I'm south of Sunrise Highway though, but only by a 5 minute drive.  So the JFK ASOS gets the seabreeze (and winter changeover line) a little before Sunrise Highway gets it too?

 

[LibertyBell]

26 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Wild range of possibilities tn.  I'd lean towards the drier guidance but *shrug*.

the sun has been out here.....

 

[donsutherland1]

Under partly sunny skies temperatures rose into the middle 80s at the New York Botanical Garden.

 

[donsutherland1]

Under partly sunny skies, the temperature rose into the upper 80s and even lower 90s across parts of the region. Tomorrow will be cooler, but the coming week could see the potential of a heat wave in parts of the region, especially from Washington, DC to Philadelphia. Above normal temperatures could persist toward mid-month.

Next week could also see the development of a much above normal temperature regime in the Pacific Northwest. There is a growing possibility that Portland could experience its second extreme heat event of the year. That would make 2021 the first year on record with two such events. Portland could also experience 2 or more 100° high temperatures, allowing 2021 to tie or break the all-time record for most such days.

In some of the long-range guidance that heat could later be followed by another round of heat in the Northern Plains a week or so later. If so, one will see a similar sequence of events as occurred from late June to mid-July.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around July 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September.

The SOI was -8.86 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.650 today.

On August 5 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.638 (RMM). The August 4-adjusted amplitude was 0.893 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.0° (normal).

 

[rclab]

8 hours ago, Rjay said:

Tell him KNYC 

I did and am waiting/hoping for another reply. As always ….

[SACRUS]

8/7

EWR: 91
New Brnswck: 90
LGA: 89
TEB: 88
BLM: 87
PHL: 87
TTN: 87
NYC: 87
ISP:85
ACY: 84
JFK: 83

[Rjay]

Last 6 runs of the NAMs 

 

[Rtd208]

High for the day yesterday was 93 here.

Current temp 74/DP 65/RH 73%

[SRRTA22]

That lp is doing some things...

G~20mph  whether we miss or not this has me super intrigued 

[Rjay]

[SRRTA22]

@Rjay that low is good lookin' fwiw. Different times man...different times

[Santa Claus]

29 minutes ago, Rjay said:

probably not an outright coup for the Euro but a nice surprise

nice looking cyclone for August 8th

[LibertyBell]

26 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

probably not an outright coup for the Euro but a nice surprise

nice looking cyclone for August 8th

lol it's not even raining here though

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Under partly sunny skies, the temperature rose into the upper 80s and even lower 90s across parts of the region. Tomorrow will be cooler, but the coming week could see the potential of a heat wave in parts of the region, especially from Washington, DC to Philadelphia. Above normal temperatures could persist toward mid-month.

Next week could also see the development of a much above normal temperature regime in the Pacific Northwest. There is a growing possibility that Portland could experience its second extreme heat event of the year. That would make 2021 the first year on record with two such events. Portland could also experience 2 or more 100° high temperatures, allowing 2021 to tie or break the all-time record for most such days.

In some of the long-range guidance that heat could later be followed by another round of heat in the Northern Plains a week or so later. If so, one will see a similar sequence of events as occurred from late June to mid-July.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around July 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September.

The SOI was -8.86 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.650 today.

On August 5 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.638 (RMM). The August 4-adjusted amplitude was 0.893 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.0° (normal).

 

Thats crazy the Pac NW is having the summer from hell over there.  Extremes usually beget extremes so maybe they'll follow this up with an extremely cold and snowy winter over there?  That would be good to build up the snowpack out there, which the West sorely needs.
 

[Santa Claus]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

lol it's not even raining here though

that’s what i mean, not a 2 inch rainer but a decent soak even when the forecast was a 30% chance showers.  this radar isn’t 30% chance showers.

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

that’s what i mean, not a 2 inch rainer but a decent soak even when the forecast was a 30% chance showers.  this radar isn’t 30% chance showers.

it's going to be interesting to see where that "eye" ends up at our latitude.

 

what exactly is supposed to be keeping this thing from going straight north? not like we have any kind of blocking here lol we're in a southerly flow.

 

[bluewave]

Consistent pattern over the last year of tucked in lows near the Jersey Shore. Several tropical systems since last summer and winter storms in the same location. Now we have this compact low with a very well defined circulation. 
 

Station Number: NJ-CN-26	Station Name: Winslow Twp 5.7 SSE
Observation Date	8/8/2021 7:00 AM
Submitted	8/08/2021 7:09 AM
Total Precip Amount	3.49 in.

 

[lee59]

.26 inch of rain here and still raining lightly. Needed it.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 82degs.(74/90), or +6.

69*(90%RH) here at 6am, variable overcast, drizzle.          70* by 9am, some clearing.          Never did clear up.     Reached 75* at 11:30am.       69* by 6pm.        Was 67* all evening with drizzle.

[doncat]

0.25" here but 1-3 inch amounts in Central and Southern nj.

[winterwarlock]

.23 non event for me. Bring on heatwave

[donsutherland1]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Thats crazy the Pac NW is having the summer from hell over there.  Extremes usually beget extremes so maybe they'll follow this up with an extremely cold and snowy winter over there?  That would be good to build up the snowpack out there, which the West sorely needs.
 

It is. It seems just as Europe had two extreme heatwaves during summer 2019, the Pacific Northwest will experience the same on account of the tendency to keep returning to the prevailing hot pattern. It wouldn’t surprise me if there is additional heat in that region, not necessarily to the extreme levels of June or what lies ahead this week, later this month. The ongoing drought is helping drive that pattern.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Light rain will end and it will become partly to mostly cloudy. Parts of southern portions of the region, including Philadelphia, will see mainly sunny skies. It will be cooler than yesterday. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s but lower and middle 80s from central New Jersey southward.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 78°

Newark: 83°

Philadelphia: 85°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 84.2°; 15-Year: 84.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 85.7°; 15-Year: 86.4°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 86.7°; 15-Year: 87.0°

Much of the upcoming week will see above normal temperatures. 

[bluewave]

10 out of 11 weekends since Memorial Day with at least a T of rain.

 

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Precipitation
2021-05-29	0.58
2021-05-30	1.15
2021-05-31	T
2021-06-01	0.00
2021-06-02	T
2021-06-03	0.41
2021-06-04	0.19
2021-06-05	0.00
2021-06-06	0.00
2021-06-07	0.04
2021-06-08	2.19
2021-06-09	0.53
2021-06-10	0.00
2021-06-11	T
2021-06-12	T
2021-06-13	T
2021-06-14	0.16
2021-06-15	0.01
2021-06-16	0.00
2021-06-17	0.00
2021-06-18	0.00
2021-06-19	0.05
2021-06-20	0.00
2021-06-21	T
2021-06-22	0.17
2021-06-23	0.00
2021-06-24	0.00
2021-06-25	0.00
2021-06-26	0.07
2021-06-27	0.00
2021-06-28	0.00
2021-06-29	0.00
2021-06-30	0.54
2021-07-01	0.94
2021-07-02	1.53
2021-07-03	0.05
2021-07-04	0.00
2021-07-05	0.00
2021-07-06	0.55
2021-07-07	T
2021-07-08	0.08
2021-07-09	1.60
2021-07-10	T
2021-07-11	T
2021-07-12	0.69
2021-07-13	0.01
2021-07-14	0.07
2021-07-15	T
2021-07-16	0.00
2021-07-17	2.28
2021-07-18	T
2021-07-19	T
2021-07-20	0.00
2021-07-21	0.05
2021-07-22	0.00
2021-07-23	T
2021-07-24	0.00
2021-07-25	0.37
2021-07-26	0.08
2021-07-27	T
2021-07-28	0.04
2021-07-29	0.57
2021-07-30	0.00
2021-07-31	0.00
2021-08-01	0.13
2021-08-02	0.00
2021-08-03	0.00
2021-08-04	0.00
2021-08-05	0.00
2021-08-06	0.00
2021-08-07	T
2021-08-08	M

[LoboLeader1]

68 here currently, RH 90/DP 64. Mostly cloudy

[lee59]

Still raining here, .37 inch so far.

[lee59]

For those who like winter, here is a glimmer of hope. The average high temperature at Central Park has begun its decent. It is now 84 down from 85.