August 2021

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Not surprised, has been a theme this whole summer it seems.  Take the under on the extended heat along the coast.  Inland locations from C NJ on S&W look to roast for 5 days of 90+ though.

Yup. Probably lots of 88/74 type conditions here. Upton might be right on the money minimizing the big heat east of NYC anyway. 

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 12z Euro backed off on the heat for next week. It continues to correct stronger with the high pressure exiting New England. So we get into a humid SE flow.

 

 

I think this should be expected with CC?  What do you think, Chris?  We get more humid while the real heat goes farther to the north?

Same thing happens with Florida.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Yup. Probably lots of 88/74 type conditions here. Upton might be right on the money minimizing the big heat east of NYC anyway. 

lol it reminds me of inland cutters and coastal huggers, the coast usually misses out on the big anomalous events.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This summer is all about the record Western Ridge and heatwave. A piece of that heat  came east for new all-time June heat record of 103° at Newark. But then we got the tropical storm and record rainfall in July. Now the record +PNA is an extension of that historic ridge. It’s generating stronger Canadian high pressure than originally forecast. So it looks like more onshore flow into next week than the earlier model runs were indicating. 

 

What would it take to get coast to coast record heat?  Like a record ridge that had 100 degree temps on both coasts?

 

[Gravity Wave]

Given how sticky patterns have been over the past few years I'm hopeful for some nice PNA spikes this winter. 

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

What would it take to get coast to coast record heat?  Like a record ridge that had 100 degree temps on both coasts?

 

We had 100° heat from coast to coast at the end of June. But the ridge quickly pulled back to the west in July. The 500mb height anomaly was an all-time June and July record for the Western US.

 

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

This summer is all about the record Western Ridge and heatwave. A piece of that heat  came east for new all-time June heat record of 103° at Newark. But then we got the tropical storm and record rainfall in July. Now the record +PNA is an extension of that historic ridge. It’s generating stronger Canadian high pressure than originally forecast. So it looks like more onshore flow into next week than the earlier model runs were indicating. 

 

Essentially no temps over 100 in the urban corridor in TX this summer which is quite unusual. It’s also been wet when this time of year typically gets dry other than tropical systems there. Not a fan of the humidity that’s coming back regardless of the actual temps which might not be as hot as we thought. 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and warmer. Readings will likely rise into the middle 80s with some hot spots reaching the upper 80s. Next week could see the potential of a heat wave in parts of the region, especially from Washington, DC to Philadelphia. Above normal temperatures could persist toward mid-month.

Next week could also see the development of a much above normal temperature regime in the Pacific Northwest. There is the possibility that Portland could experience its second extreme heat event of the year. That would make 201 the first year on record with two such events.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around July 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September.

The SOI was -18.39 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.390 today.

The preliminary Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern figure was +3.734. That further increased the August record positive PNA.

On August 3 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.059 (RMM). The August 2-adjusted amplitude was 1.295 (RMM).

 

[Rtd208]

Temp overperformed a bit here.

High for the day was 87

Current temp 71/DP 67/RH 87%

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

We had 100° heat from coast to coast at the end of June. But the ridge quickly pulled back to the west in July. The 500mb height anomaly was an all-time June and July record for the Western US.

 

JFK only got to 94 which was disappointing, I was looking forward to the all encompassing wind from the SW Deserts making it here, instead all we get is this dirty Bermuda high.  This summer has been a disappointment.

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Essentially no temps over 100 in the urban corridor in TX this summer which is quite unusual. It’s also been wet when this time of year typically gets dry other than tropical systems there. Not a fan of the humidity that’s coming back regardless of the actual temps which might not be as hot as we thought. 

I wanted that air from Death Valley to come here.  If Death Valley can get to 130 we can definitely get to 100.  I miss the good old days when we got the air directly from the deserts instead of these dirty humid polluted airmasses.

 

[CIK62]

10-Day HW to start today?

Will depend upon wind direction/ cloud cover each day.      BN air may be 'Absorbed' by mid-month.    It is......   Not of the Body.   Lol and thank you Star Trek.

The next 8 days are averaging 83degs.(74/92), or +7.

70*(82%RH) here at 6am, m. clear.    73* by 9am.        76* by Noon.   {JFK=80*, EWR=88*}         On beach all PM, and sea breeze kept it below 80*.     Now it is 80* at 5pm.

[the_other_guy]

Another beautiful morning without AC 66F

 

This forum seems intent on creating a drenching storm and heat wave…to no avail

[bluewave]

20 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

it's annoying to have all this humidity and not the heat.  

 

The ASOS at JFK is near a marshy area right on Jamaica Bay. So it’s always going to have a lower amount of 90° days than LGA and EWR. Getting over 20 days requires a high number of westerly flow days which has only happened 3 times. Even so,JFK still had numerous top 10s in recent years with all the humid onshore flow. 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90	Missing Count
1	2010	32	0
2	1983	26	0
3	2002	21	0
4	1971	18	0
-	1949	18	0
5	2005	17	0
-	1991	17	0
6	2012	16	0
-	1959	16	3
-	1955	16	2
7	2016	15	0
-	1995	15	0
-	1961	15	0
8	1999	14	0
-	1988	14	0
-	1966	14	0
-	1952	14	0
9	2011	13	0
-	1993	13	0
-	1984	13	0
-	1977	13	0
-	1970	13	0
-	1969	13	0
-	1963	13	0
10	2020	12	0
-	2015	12	0
-	2006	12	0
-	2003	12	0
-	1978	12	0
-	1968	12	0
-	1953	12	0

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It was an unnerving night last night in Seattle as drops of water began falling from the sky just before midnight. Seattle’s second longest streak without measurable precipitation ended at 51 days.

It will be mostly sunny and very warm today. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 80s and lower 90s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 88°

Newark: 92°

Philadelphia: 90°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 84.4°; 15-Year: 84.9°

Newark: 30-Year: 85.9°; 15-Year: 86.8°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 86.9°; 15-Year: 87.3°

Tomorrow will be another warm day.

[Rjay]

22 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Another beautiful morning without AC 66F

 

This forum seems intent on creating a drenching storm and heat wave…to no avail

That's bull.

You could always follow Ryan Maue's Twitter account.  He'll say stuff you want to hear.   

[Brian5671]

42 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Another beautiful morning without AC 66F

 

This forum seems intent on creating a drenching storm and heat wave…to no avail

everyone wants exciting weather.  While the 72 and cloudy here the last 3 days was kind of nice it's also boring.

[rclab]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The ASOS at JFK is near a marshy area right on Jamaica Bay. So it’s always going to have a lower amount of 90° days than LGA and EWR. Getting over 20 days requires a high number of westerly flow days which has only happened 3 times. Even so,JFK still had numerous top 10s in recent years with all the humid onshore flow. 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90	Missing Count
1	2010	32	0
2	1983	26	0
3	2002	21	0
4	1971	18	0
-	1949	18	0
5	2005	17	0
-	1991	17	0
6	2012	16	0
-	1959	16	3
-	1955	16	2
7	2016	15	0
-	1995	15	0
-	1961	15	0
8	1999	14	0
-	1988	14	0
-	1966	14	0
-	1952	14	0
9	2011	13	0
-	1993	13	0
-	1984	13	0
-	1977	13	0
-	1970	13	0
-	1969	13	0
-	1963	13	0
10	2020	12	0
-	2015	12	0
-	2006	12	0
-	2003	12	0
-	1978	12	0
-	1968	12	0
-	1953	12	0

 

Good morning BW. I apologize in advance for any sarcasm. I’m wondering, if an ASOS is proposed for an area is the final location decided on made by the property owner, the NWS, a cooperative decision or a dart board? As always ….

[rclab]

19 minutes ago, Rjay said:

That's bull.

You could always follow Ryan Maue's Twitter account.  He'll say stuff you want to hear.   

Good morning Rjay. Your avatar is working fine. As always ….

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

Another beautiful morning without AC 66F

 

This forum seems intent on creating a drenching storm and heat wave…to no avail

59.5 last night\in the 50s all week during the early morning.  Felt really nice.  Now time to bake, lol

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

Another beautiful morning without AC 66F

 

This forum seems intent on creating a drenching storm and heat wave…to no avail

It's still gonna be plenty hot. A few mid-upper 90 days are likely.

[bluewave]

29 minutes ago, rclab said:

Good morning BW. I apologize in advance for any sarcasm. I’m wondering, if an ASOS is proposed for an area is the final location decided on made by the property owner, the NWS, a cooperative decision or a dart board? As always ….

The NWS had their major upgrade back in the 1990s. So it was a joint effort between the NWS and FAA. Each ASOS has to maintain sitting rules which are in the handbook for accurate measurements.  I believe the NWS Eastern region HQ near ISP is in charge of maintaining the network So that may be the place to ask about the Central Park ASOS violating the sitting rules with trees blocking the sensors. 
 

https://www.weather.gov/erh/ERDivisions

[uncle W]

1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

Another beautiful morning without AC 66F

 

This forum seems intent on creating a drenching storm and heat wave…to no avail

no need to because this summer has seen its share of heat waves and drenching rains...

[SACRUS]

81/65 and sunny.  Should see 90s in the warmer spots again since July 27th.  Some clouds tomorrow will likely limit 90s before clearing on Sunday but a weakness in the ridge may cause some onshore flow Sun and into  Monday.  As mentioned the warmer spots with less E/ NE flow will get to 90.  By Tuesday (8/10) through Sat (8/13) looks to see the peak of this coming weeks heat.  850 tempx >18c by wed and near or >20c Thu (8/12) and Fri (8/13).  Beyond there overall humid to warm with potential more heat in to the following week.

[forkyfork]

the euro seems to have a confluence/backdoor high bias days 3-5. think of all the snowstorms that came north

[lee59]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The ASOS at JFK is near a marshy area right on Jamaica Bay. So it’s always going to have a lower amount of 90° days than LGA and EWR. Getting over 20 days requires a high number of westerly flow days which has only happened 3 times. Even so,JFK still had numerous top 10s in recent years with all the humid onshore flow. 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90	Missing Count
1	2010	32	0
2	1983	26	0
3	2002	21	0
4	1971	18	0
-	1949	18	0
5	2005	17	0
-	1991	17	0
6	2012	16	0
-	1959	16	3
-	1955	16	2
7	2016	15	0
-	1995	15	0
-	1961	15	0
8	1999	14	0
-	1988	14	0
-	1966	14	0
-	1952	14	0
9	2011	13	0
-	1993	13	0
-	1984	13	0
-	1977	13	0
-	1970	13	0
-	1969	13	0
-	1963	13	0
10	2020	12	0
-	2015	12	0
-	2006	12	0
-	2003	12	0
-	1978	12	0
-	1968	12	0
-	1953	12	0

 

I would only count 2010 and 2012 as recent top tens. 

[lee59]

After a morning low of 63, already up to 82 degrees, for sure a warmer feel than recent days.

[Rjay]

10 minutes ago, lee59 said:

I would only count 2010 and 2012 as recent top tens. 

Lol why?   The numbers are the numbers.   Even when it's a below normal July we're in the top 20 warmest months.  

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

no need to because this summer has seen its share of heat waves and drenching rains...

NYC actually had a 10.00 +July but Miami didn’t.

 

Monthly Total Precipitation for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Jul	Season
Mean	5.36	5.36
2021	11.09	11.09
2020	6.58	6.58
2019	5.77	5.77
2018	7.45	7.45
2017	4.19	4.19
2016	7.02	7.02
2015	3.98	3.98
2014	5.59	5.59
2013	2.84	2.84
2012	4.21	4.21
2011	3.03	3.03
2010	2.60	2.60

 

Monthly Total Precipitation for Miami Area, FL (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Jul	Season
Mean	8.70	8.70
2021	8.18	8.18
2020	10.26	10.26
2019	10.54	10.54
2018	8.02	8.02
2017	12.45	12.45
2016	4.11	4.11
2015	5.91	5.91
2014	10.29	10.29
2013	12.70	12.70
2012	8.92	8.92
2011	5.71	5.71
2010	7.36	7.36

[rclab]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The NWS had their major upgrade back in the 1990s. So it was a joint effort between the NWS and FAA. Each ASOS has to maintain sitting rules which are in the handbook for accurate measurements.  I believe the NWS Eastern region HQ near ISP is in charge of maintaining the network So that may be the place to ask about the Central Park ASOS violating the sitting rules with trees blocking the sensors. 
 

https://www.weather.gov/erh/ERDivisions

Thank you BW. I used the link and contacted the ASOS group. I was specific and, of course, courteous mentioning our concerns. I also mentioned the forum as the source and education point for my correspondence with them. I also stated that I had been in contact with the Conservancy I finished by making a simple request for an environmental evaluation of the CPK ASOS location.We shall see. As always ….