August 2021

[wdrag]

WAR?  Will the Western Atlantic Ridge  reassert itself and result in the verification of previous many long range outlooks of above to much above normal temps for August here in the NY area?  

And if so, when does the Atlantic Basin fire up? I see as of this 7/24 writing that our tropical topic posters seem to expect week two or three of August for activity getting going?  SST ANOM's don't look exciting (to me) but these can change. Certainly the + anoms well north of HAT (especially New England) can feed or extend the life of TC's north of Hatteras. 

[wdrag]

As of 835A EDT/25...NAEFS shows no OVERALL dramatic week-two warmup east of the Rockies and the Atlantic Basin shows basically nil in the 00z/25 ensembles through 16 days.

Long ranging is difficult (beyond a week) and our thoughts on the modeling interactions can sometimes go awry when the models of one global factor (oscillation) or another unexpectedly changes.  Maybe in our lifetimes that there will be new discoveries resulting in improved seasonal outlooking out to 6 months,  beyond historic trends in climate - referencing in particular the trend of our slowly warming climate. 

August is going to be an interesting test here in the northeast... will try to remember to review at the end of the month.

Based on the many prior projections in June-July, I anticipate something is going to adjust the pattern enough to reduce the bore factor, add heat and qpf later in August. In the meantime, having fun today.

[SACRUS]

11 hours ago, wdrag said:

As of 835A EDT/25...NAEFS shows no OVERALL dramatic week-two warmup east of the Rockies and the Atlantic Basin shows basically nil in the 00z/25 ensembles through 16 days.

Long ranging is difficult (beyond a week) and our thoughts on the modeling interactions can sometimes go awry when the models of one global factor (oscillation) or another unexpectedly changes.  Maybe in our lifetimes that there will be new discoveries resulting in improved seasonal outlooking out to 6 months,  beyond historic trends in climate - referencing in particular the trend of our slowly warming climate. 

August is going to be an interesting test here in the northeast... will try to remember to review at the end of the month.

Based on the many prior projections in June-July, I anticipate something is going to adjust the pattern enough to reduce the bore factor, add heat and qpf later in August. In the meantime, having fun today.

Seems like a good forecast.  Currently looking a bit back and forth with a fine line between some hot days and more /drier seasonal this week bias warm.  Once to the weekend 7/31 through the first 5-6 days of August looks bias cooler than normal with a day or two mixed in hot.  Beyond that the western ridge looks to expand east and perhaps the Wsetern Atlntc ridge noses west again.  

[SnoSki14]

Not often you see 50s in the forecast during peak summer climo.

This is much more common 2nd half of August than late July. 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Not often you see 50s in the forecast during peak summer climo.

This is much more common 2nd half of August than late July. 

Could this be signs of a developing El Nino?

We had very cool nights in August just prior and during the Perseid meteor shower back in the mid 80s just before an El Nino.

 

[uncle W]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Could this be signs of a developing El Nino?

We had very cool nights in August just prior and during the Perseid meteor shower back in the mid 80s just before an El Nino.

 

some la nina's have been cool at the end of July and August...1964, 2000 and 2007 come to mind...

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, uncle W said:

some la nina's have been cool at the end of July and August...1964, 2000 and 2007 come to mind...

what did we have in 2001?  I remember that summer as cool and wet and somehow we spiked up to 103 in August (second highest temp ever recorded in August)?! and went back to cool and wet again after that?  The heat didn't come back until November and then never left again until over  a year later lol.

 

[uncle W]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

what did we have in 2001?  I remember that summer as cool and wet and somehow we spiked up to 103 in August (second highest temp ever recorded in August)?! and went back to cool and wet again after that?  The heat didn't come back until November and then never left again until over  a year later lol.

 

that was a neutral after nina winter that on average blows...

[uncle W]

12 minutes ago, uncle W said:

that was a neutral after nina winter that on average blows...

some neutral after nina winters...

1950-51...11.6"

1956-57...21.9"

1985-86...13.0"

1989-90...13.4"

1996-97...10.0"

2001-02.....3.5"

2012-13...26.1"

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, uncle W said:

that was a neutral after nina winter that on average blows...

the 1989-1990 type winter on steroids......I rank 2001-02 as the worst of the worst, particularly because JB was talking about it being the GOAT of winters in advance, when does he not lol

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, uncle W said:

some neutral after nina winters...

1950-51...11.6"

1956-57...21.9"

1985-86...13.0"

1989-90...13.4"

1996-97...10.0"

2001-02.....3.5"

2012-13...26.1"

I think 2001-02 might have been our warmest winter, and the warmth extended into springtime and summer....unusual because a moderate el nino followed it (which was a great winter.)  I loved that dry heat wave in April 2002!  I was hoping the summer wouldn't be as lackluster as 1976 which was the only other time we had such an early heatwave and 2002 did not disappoint.  I had roses growing after Christmas in 2001 and my first crocuses popped up in February in 2002- the shortest non growing season I've ever had.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, uncle W said:

some neutral after nina winters...

1950-51...11.6"

1956-57...21.9"

1985-86...13.0"

1989-90...13.4"

1996-97...10.0"

2001-02.....3.5"

2012-13...26.1"

1989-1990 was another notable one after a snowy Thanksgiving and then a record cold and dry December, record warmth in January, February and March with summer like mid 80s around the Ides and then a late snowfall in early April.

DC had more than we did that winter they got a storm in December that somehow changed to rain for us when a secondary formed too close to the coast, the second blown 6-8 inch call that year (the first one was in the previous winter, in February, when we had virga all day while ACY got 20" of snow.)

 

[wdrag]

A copy from this morning July:

 

The 00z/27 GEFS Aug 10 spaghetti shows just two members with a tiny closed low near 60W, advancing nwwd. That for me is the first modeling admission that the Atlantic Basin may be getting ready to fire. 

 

Overall it looks to me like it's trying to warm up after the 5th, and especially the 10th onward as the Western Atlantic Ridge builds west and/or strengthens,. That should lead to Bermuda high dominance for us in week two August and maybe beyond?

[forkyfork]

On 7/24/2021 at 2:43 PM, wdrag said:

WAR?  Will the Western Atlantic Ridge  reassert itself and result in the verification of previous many long range outlooks of above to much above normal temps for August here in the NY area?

here you go

[wdrag]

12z/27 GEFS continues warming above normal 500MB heights ~Aug 5 and gets it going good by the 10th.  Also continues two members of a TC beginning 8/10 and advances to near 70W off the E coast.  Two members is few and considered outlier, so this may be premature for the Atlantic Basin.

[nycwinter]

3 hours ago, forkyfork said:

here you go

very unlikely this would verify...

[Rjay]

4 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

very unlikely this would verify...

Why

[nycwinter]

Just now, Rjay said:

Why

by aug 6 we have already have lost 1 hour of daylight from jun 21.. and the sun angle is decreasing...i feel the worst part of  the summer heat is behind us...

[Rjay]

3 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

by aug 6 we have already have lost 1 hour of daylight from jun 21.. and the sun angle is decreasing...i feel the worst part of  the summer heat is behind us...

What does that have to do with the pattern being depicted?

[Rjay]

Eps, gefs and geps at day 10

 

 

[uofmiami]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Eps, gefs and geps at day 10

 

 

 

Is there something at 20N/50W at the surface?  All the models have a weakness at 500mb at that location.

[ForestHillWx]

It’s very possible the heat could verify, but aren’t 10 day runs looked on with disfavor in the winter months? 240hr runs are usually fantasy land. 

[Rjay]

12 hours ago, ForestHillWx said:

It’s very possible the heat could verify, but aren’t 10 day runs looked on with disfavor in the winter months? 240hr runs are usually fantasy land. 

Looking at clues for an upcoming pattern which we often do in the winter at day 10 is fine.   Storm details at hr 240 are often frowned upon and with good reason.

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, uofmiami said:

 

Is there something at 20N/50W at the surface?  All the models have a weakness at 500mb at that location.

I would guess some ensemble members have some tropical activity.  

[Rjay]

^

 

[binbisso]

I believe we're supposed to be warm to hot in the month of August but I could be mistaken.  What's impressive is the next 10 days my highest temperature is 83ﾟ and Lows in the sixties and several days in the fifties  during peak summer

[Rjay]

 

^A couple nights might drop into the upper 50s at HPN but overall slightly below normal temps over a 7 day period doesn't impress me.   

 

[Stormlover74]

2 hours ago, Rjay said:

 

^A couple nights might drop into the upper 50s at HPN but overall slightly below normal temps over a 7 day period don't impress me.   

 

Let's get LGA into the upper 50s then it might be impressive

[SnoSki14]

6 hours ago, nycwinter said:

by aug 6 we have already have lost 1 hour of daylight from jun 21.. and the sun angle is decreasing...i feel the worst part of  the summer heat is behind us...

That's like saying winter is over Feb 6. We've seen years with colder departures in Feb/March than Dec/Jan over the past decade. 

The pattern will dictate how hot things get especially in August when the solar effects are still very strong.

[bluewave]

The GFS is close to the all-time +PNA record for the month of August. I believe the record was +3.160 at the beginning of August in 2009. Could lead to a stalled front scenario somewhere in the East when the WAR eventually pushes back against the trough.

 

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.pna.index.b500101.current.ascii

2009  8  1  3.160