Few SVR likely either early tonight and/or Wednesday afternoon July 20-21, 2021

[wdrag]

Featuring Severe storms this thread though with wet ground cannot rule out isolated FF where excesses have occurred recently, especially ne NJ...but PW max around 1.4" and a bit faster moving, especially Wednesday, limit the FF potential. 

Follow modeled (FV3, NAM3K, HRRR, SPC HREF), NWS-SPC outlooks/warnings/stmts and your own takes, obs. 

TT up into the lower 50s tonight and Wednesday early afternoon. Wind fields  a little on the lighter side today so believe svr risk from a dying line of esewd moving sct heavy convection is NYS/CT, maybe with a remnant thunderstorm down to I80-NYC around or after midnight.   Should have a refire Wednesday afternoon but where does it grow large enough to be SVR?  Probably I95 corridor eastward. NJ coast may end up the most favored area on Wednesday.

Check for any changes in the SPC day 1 and 2 outlooks which at 6am has marginal upstate NY today, and then our area Wed. 

[Stormlover74]

 

[wdrag]

Will be monitoring at times during the night being on call.  Note that I think the NYS activity is getting ahead of the modeling... faster. also pretty decent cells well out in front to the south.  Interesting night ahead NYS and CT and of course now near I90.

 

Walt

[uncle W]

I wonder if the smokey conditions will put a damper on tomorrows possible thunderstorms?...TWT...

[thunderbolt]

39 minutes ago, uncle W said:

I wonder if the smokey conditions will put a damper on tomorrows possible thunderstorms?...TWT...

I don’t think so the only reason I’m saying that is in upstate New York They were put on her a severe thunderstorm watch and I know they had some warnings up that way

[uncle W]

10 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

I don’t think so the only reason I’m saying that is in upstate New York They were put on her a severe thunderstorm watch and I know they had some warnings up that way

did it happen?

[thunderbolt]

27 minutes ago, uncle W said:

did it happen?

Yes they had severe thunderstorm warnings up there and they had a lot of smoke from the fires

[Stormlover74]

Maybe this will shed some light

 

[Rtd208]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

 

[wdrag]

Activity last night died quickly before getting into the subforum. Follow NWS and the SPC updates. Have not had time to reevaluate since early yesterday,

[WE GOT HIM]

Howie looking

[Rjay]

 

 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1323.html

[Stormlover74]

16 minutes ago, user13 said:

Howie looking

I'm not enthused but we'll see. Already drying out out here

81/61 currently 

[Brian5671]

45 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I'm not enthused but we'll see. Already drying out out here

81/61 currently 

models showing the best stuff south of the city-NYC and north don't get much....

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

models showing the best stuff south of the city-NYC and north don't get much....

There's a thin line heading my way but by no means severe. It'll probably blow up south and east of me 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

There's a thin line heading my way but by no means severe. It'll probably blow up south and east of me 

Front is fast moving-Upton AFD  says we're done by late afternoon-to me that says the timing is off today

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Front is fast moving-Upton AFD  says we're done by late afternoon-to me that says the timing is off today

Yeah, that’s a bizarre front timing. I was just looking at the radar and figured those were pre frontal storms. If that’s the front then this threat is cooked 

[Snowlover11]

nice storm moving over nnj heading for the bronx and westchester 

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Yeah, that’s a bizarre front timing. I was just looking at the radar and figured those were pre frontal storms. If that’s the front then this threat is cooked 

There's more activity back in PA

[dmillz25]

 

[Brian5671]

19 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Yeah, that’s a bizarre front timing. I was just looking at the radar and figured those were pre frontal storms. If that’s the front then this threat is cooked 

Wagons south on this one IMO.  Most modeling shows south of NYC to be in the zone....

[psv88]

84/69 here...this thin line will probably stabilize us enough to kill this threat.

[WE GOT HIM]

20 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

 

Thats a big watch

[psv88]

39 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Yeah, that’s a bizarre front timing. I was just looking at the radar and figured those were pre frontal storms. If that’s the front then this threat is cooked 

We do have MLCape to work with, so the early showers may not matter.

[nycwinter]

thunderstorm entering the city..

[CIK62]

[Brian5671]

upton:   Not too enthused....

-

Severe tstm watch 385 issued for the entire area til 00Z. That
said, signals are mixed re severe wx potential especially across
the lower Hudson Valley and srn CT. One sfc trough has drifted
well to the south, with a more subtle pre-frontal trough
extending back into north central PA and accompanied by widely
sct convection, while the sfc cold front lags even farther
behind across upstate NY and western PA. A BL theta-E ridge
extends from southern NJ up into SE New England, and with
further daytime heating could expand westward into SE CT and
eastern Long Island this afternoon.

Convection with a leading short line segment over northern NJ
so far has not been very robust with reports of small hail at
most so far, but things may change going into this afternoon.
Latest HiResW guidance suggests tstms will become focused
along the pre-frontal trough to the west and move across the
NYC metro area and Long Island this afternoon, while the latest
HRRR also forecasts tstms developing to the SW to graze NYC and
Long Island. Given drier air and lack of focusing mechanism
other than sea breezes, have questions how much activity the
lower Hudson Valley and srn CT will see.

Strong convection may be confined to eastern Long Island and
perhaps SE CT after 6 PM, with a few trailing showers/tstms
possible all the way back to NYC. As N-NW flw ensues this
evening, any remaining activity should end after sunset, with
dew point readings getting down in the more comfortable upper
50s toward daybreak on Thursday, with low temps from the upper
50s well north/west to the 60s elsewhere.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Decent down pour and some nice CG lightning with this first line on the uws. Zero wind 

[nycwinter]

was very dark a a few minutes ago a few thunderclaps not much rain sky has gotten lighter..maybe the worst of the storm passed north of me..

[psv88]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

upton:   Not too enthused....

-

Severe tstm watch 385 issued for the entire area til 00Z. That
said, signals are mixed re severe wx potential especially across
the lower Hudson Valley and srn CT. One sfc trough has drifted
well to the south, with a more subtle pre-frontal trough
extending back into north central PA and accompanied by widely
sct convection, while the sfc cold front lags even farther
behind across upstate NY and western PA. A BL theta-E ridge
extends from southern NJ up into SE New England, and with
further daytime heating could expand westward into SE CT and
eastern Long Island this afternoon.

Convection with a leading short line segment over northern NJ
so far has not been very robust with reports of small hail at
most so far, but things may change going into this afternoon.
Latest HiResW guidance suggests tstms will become focused
along the pre-frontal trough to the west and move across the
NYC metro area and Long Island this afternoon, while the latest
HRRR also forecasts tstms developing to the SW to graze NYC and
Long Island. Given drier air and lack of focusing mechanism
other than sea breezes, have questions how much activity the
lower Hudson Valley and srn CT will see.

Strong convection may be confined to eastern Long Island and
perhaps SE CT after 6 PM, with a few trailing showers/tstms
possible all the way back to NYC. As N-NW flw ensues this
evening, any remaining activity should end after sunset, with
dew point readings getting down in the more comfortable upper
50s toward daybreak on Thursday, with low temps from the upper
50s well north/west to the 60s elsewhere.

Maybe for you?