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Central & Eastern Pacific Thread


Windspeed
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1 minute ago, Floydbuster said:

I just find it hard to believe that a major metropolitan city of one million people wouldn't have a radar site in 2023. 

Just may not have the funding like we do from government for NOAA. I mean look how outdated Canada's radars are. Not to get off topic. Would love to see Otis on radar. Also hoping for some HH footage. 

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1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Just may not have the funding like we do from government for NOAA. I mean look how outdated Canada's radars are. Not to get off topic. Would love to see Otis on radar. Also hoping for some HH footage. 

Josh Morgerman said that he was caught off guard and wouldn't be able to chase Otis. But he's been silent for over 8 hrs on Twitter...and I wonder if he did a quickie and is headed down there.

It's possible, he's one of the best.

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Update from NHC;
 

Hurricane Otis Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182023
1100 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE OTIS STILL 
STRENGTHENING AS IT NEARS THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...

Recent satellite data indicate that Otis continues to strengthen.  
The maximum sustained winds are now estimated to be near 165 mph 
(270 km/h) with higher gusts.  Otis is a category 5 hurricane on 
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Otis is forecast to 
remain a category 5 hurricane through landfall overnight. 
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000
WTPZ63 KNHC 250400
TCUEP3

Hurricane Otis Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
1100 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE OTIS STILL
STRENGTHENING AS IT NEARS THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...

Recent satellite data indicate that Otis continues to strengthen.
The maximum sustained winds are now estimated to be near 165 mph
(270 km/h) with higher gusts. Otis is a category 5 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Otis is forecast to
remain a category 5 hurricane through landfall overnight.

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM CDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3 99.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES

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Also can’t forget flooding as the rain is squeezed out by the higher elevations.
Yes, generally, the surge isn't going to be the most dangerous aspect of Otis, despite it being a Cat 5. It has a small core. Winds will be devastating within the eyewall, especially for elevated structures on sloped terrain. And, of course, mudslides, which still remain the greatest threat to life regardless of catastrophic wind.
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5 minutes ago, Windspeed said:
13 minutes ago, Random Chaos said:
Also can’t forget flooding as the rain is squeezed out by the higher elevations.

Yes, generally, the surge isn't going to be the most dangerous aspect of Otis, despite it being a Cat 5. It has a small core. Winds will be devastating within the eyewall, especially for elevated structures on sloped terrain. And, of course, mudslides, which still remain the greatest threat to life regardless of catastrophic wind.

It has a small core going over a super populated area and it's going to meander there for a bit

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1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said:

I was hoping Josh would be there. Just to see footage from this. Going to be unreal. If anyone could pull it off, it would be him. Thanks everyone for looking into the radar situation. Too bad we have nothing to look at from that perspective but man this satellite imagery is wow. 

Sadly, he was caught too off guard and won't be chasing Otis. Damn shame, too. I can't imagine, but like I told him on Twitter, it's Mother Nature's way of keeping him humble.

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It has a small core going over a super populated area and it's going to meander there for a bit
I'm by no means downplaying that. Aside from a limited surge, the situation is dire. It's just a person has good odds, even avoiding injury, sheltering in a solid structure. If a slope gives way into the same described structure. Well, it's not good either way, but to the point, it's far more difficult to survive the latter.
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5 minutes ago, Windspeed said:
19 minutes ago, user13 said:
It has a small core going over a super populated area and it's going to meander there for a bit

I'm by no means downplaying that. Aside from a limited surge, the situation is dire. It's just a person has good odds, even avoiding injury, sheltering in a solid structure. If a slope gives way into the same described structure. Well, it's not good either way, but to the point, it's far more difficult to survive the latter.

I don't even know if the surge is going to be that limited that bay is looking like a prime catcher's mitt for this path

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I’m thinking of some of the Central American Atlantic storms that have caused major mudslides with only a Cat 1 or Cat 2. The amount of rain this will drop is going to be bad. I’m not downplaying the wind, but the wind is often not the killer, it’s the flooding, mudslides, and storm surge (the later this storm has less risk with in part due to the short time between strengthening and landfall)

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New update:

 

000
WTPZ63 KNHC 250459
TCUEP3

Hurricane Otis Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182023
1200 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023

...EYEWALL OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE OTIS 
MOVING ASHORE NEAR ACAPULCO MEXICO... 
...12 AM POSITION UPDATE...

Satellite imagery indicates that the eyewall of potentially 
catastrophic Hurricane Otis is moving ashore the southern coast of 
Mexico near Acapulco.  Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 
165 mph (270 km/h) with higher gusts.  Otis is a category 5 
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Otis is 
forecast to remain a category 5 hurricane through landfall within 
the next few hours. 

SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CDT...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5 99.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES
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I don't even know if the surge is going to be that limited that bay is looking like a prime catcher's mitt for this path
Perhaps for something right on the immediate waterfront in the bay due to wave action on top of some surge. But the water is rather deep for fetch versus abrupt elevation change. Everything away from the immediate waterfront is above 6 ft in much of Acapulco. Nobody should be on the harbour walls unless they're being careless. Now that being said, the flat estuaries around the airport and lagoons both east and west of Acapulco would be far more susceptible to surge. But again, this is a very small hurricane, despite its intensity. Wind and run-off are my greatest concerns for the greater populace and Otis' core.
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