olafminesaw Posted October 10, 2023 Share Posted October 10, 2023 There have only been 9 major hurricane landfalls in the EPAC in Mexico since 1983. Or one every 4-5 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 10, 2023 Share Posted October 10, 2023 Text book RI. Major devastating wind event for PV. The track just to the south should empty the whole bay. This was a good chase cane! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 10, 2023 Share Posted October 10, 2023 13 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Text book RI. Major devastating wind event for PV. The track just to the south should empty the whole bay. This was a good chase cane! Looks like it's headed south of PV for now, and given its size they might be spared the worst if it doesn't take on a more notherly heading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 10, 2023 Author Share Posted October 10, 2023 Josh is on this one... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 10, 2023 Author Share Posted October 10, 2023 Impressive lightning currently around the eyewall. Pretty explosive intensification at the worst time. Lidia is a compact hurricane however. Should be a small region of hurricane force winds, though that will obviously be intense, especially with the abrupt rise in elevation for whoever or whatever is at that point inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 10, 2023 Author Share Posted October 10, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 10, 2023 Author Share Posted October 10, 2023 As expected, an impressive MW to boot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 10, 2023 Author Share Posted October 10, 2023 Interesting to note that the upper-level shear values over Lidia are very high based on satellite analysis. However, notice how there is a weak region of the mid-level shear pivoting with the circulation. Dead giveaway that Lidia's forward motion within the circulation is remaining stacked due to mid-level flow and low-level flow swinging ENE with the trough. It's put that same core in a region of intense divergence aloft; ventilation for high instability. Lucky for RI of the TC, unlucky for those at landfall point. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 10, 2023 Share Posted October 10, 2023 Wow, I didn't even realize Hurricane Lidia had recon until now. 951mb and over 96 knot winds displayed here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 10, 2023 Author Share Posted October 10, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 10, 2023 Share Posted October 10, 2023 140 mph Cat 4. Incredible RI through landfall. Just wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 Landfall at peak intensity and intensifying rapidly. Wish there was footage from the landfall point but thankfully this kept heading south into extremely rural countryside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 35 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Landfall at peak intensity and intensifying rapidly. Wish there was footage from the landfall point but thankfully this kept heading south into extremely rural countryside Josh morgerman is trying to make it to the landfall point seems like a pretty risky proposition. The eye has filled in right before landfall. Likely weakened back to cat 3, but too little too late of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 11, 2023 Author Share Posted October 11, 2023 Josh morgerman is trying to make it to the landfall point seems like a pretty risky proposition. The eye has filled in right before landfall. Likely weakened back to cat 3, but too little too late of course Not so sure. Mid-level cloudfill in the eye at the timing of landfall may not matter. A product of shear, but might've been too late before induced weakening. The eyewall was pretty intense and intact. Just bad timing for landfall. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 EPAC producing again. Looks like another overachiever though this time all indications are it will slow down and weaken before it approaches this coastline, unlike lidia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 21, 2023 Share Posted October 21, 2023 Dear Mexico Plz measure weather during a hurricane. Thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 Wow, somehow Otis has rapidly strengthened into a major. FL winds to 110 kts and unflagged SFMR values near 100 kts. Absolutely insane high end season going on over in the EPAC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 16 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Wow, somehow Otis has rapidly strengthened into a major. FL winds to 110 kts and unflagged SFMR values near 100 kts. Absolutely insane high end season going on over in the EPAC El Niño, and CC. Sign of things to come… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 Holy cow look at that symmetry! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 31 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Wow, somehow Otis has rapidly strengthened into a major. FL winds to 110 kts and unflagged SFMR values near 100 kts. Absolutely insane high end season going on over in the EPAC The 03UTC forecast this morning had it max out at 70mph. I think the models were even less enthusiastic. One of the biggest forecast errors in a while, for a landfilling hurricane anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 Acapulco is in trouble from this one if it continues to outpace intensity forecasts/doesn't fall apart on approach. Current official track essentially puts the RFQ right over the bay/city. Some Pauline '97 vibes with how it parallels the coast for a bit too, which produced extreme flooding in Guerrero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 24, 2023 Author Share Posted October 24, 2023 Good lord, so much activity going on world-wide (despite the usual suspect WPAC), I can't keep up. Of course, work... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 24, 2023 Author Share Posted October 24, 2023 Otis is looking rather mean at present.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 3 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Otis is looking rather mean at present.. Two cat 4 LFs back to back in same season… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 24, 2023 Author Share Posted October 24, 2023 Two cat 4 LFs back to back in same season… Otis might just be the worst of the EPAC due to location of landfall. Hopefully, it will weaken just before the eyewall comes ashore. Regardless, that's a bad spot for flooding and population, even if it does not hold Cat 4 through landfall. It's not moving all that fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 This was certainly unexpected 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 1 hour ago, Windspeed said: 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: Two cat 4 LFs back to back in same season… Otis might just be the worst of the EPAC due to location of landfall. Hopefully, it will weaken just before the eyewall comes ashore. Regardless, that's a bad spot for flooding and population, even if it does not hold Cat 4 through landfall. It's not moving all that fast. Definitely, it's also moving a bit east of the forecast track (at least the early afternoon one) and should landfall fairly close to Acapulco. Even if it weakens as it comes ashore, the surge has already built up and the damage is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 Wow this thing is a beast. Might be close to cat 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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