Central & Eastern Pacific Thread

[olafminesaw]

14 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

That time of year when East Pac tropics can affect our sensible weather.  The GEFS means are not showing a flood event for Texas but the 10/70 lemon/cherry does help the drought.  Should be 90E in a day or three.

1994, A big year for flooding! Alberto dropped 25"+ of rain on parts of  Georgia.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Roslyn is battling shear, part of the LLC is exposed.  HWRF makes it a major, although it is weakening as it approaches Mexico.

[Tezeta]

Roslyn is going ham and this thread is silent 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Roslyn is going ham and this thread is silent 

Perfect cat 4 micro cane based on current satellite


.

[Windspeed]

Perfect cat 4 micro cane based on current satellite


.

Yes. There may also be an outer band consolidating into an outer eyewall, but it apparently is not organized enough to prevent Rosslyn's small eyewall from continued rapid intensification. Most likely a Cat 4, perhaps upper Cat 4 at the moment with an impressive satellite presentation. Inevitably there will be weakening prior to landfall either due to structural changes or increasing shear but at least for the moment, Rosslyn is a beast.

[olafminesaw]

42 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Yes. There may also be an outer band consolidating into an outer eyewall, but it apparently is not organized enough to prevent Rosslyn's small eyewall from continued rapid intensification. Most likely a Cat 4, perhaps upper Cat 4 at the moment with an impressive satellite presentation. Inevitably there will be weakening prior to landfall either due to structural changes or increasing shear but at least for the moment, Rosslyn is a beast.

Seems like it's probably peaked and the EWRC should begin to weaken it soon

[NorthHillsWx]

Beast. Wow 

[olafminesaw]

Hot tower!

[olafminesaw]

Okay...maybe not. Might just be the smoothest EWRC I've ever seen: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2022_19E/web/displayGifsBy12hr_03.html

[Chinook]

Wow, I actually didn't see this storm until today because it's south of the normal USA maps, and I assumed nothing was happening in the tropics.

[Hoosier]

3 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Wow, I actually didn't see this storm until today because it's south of the normal USA maps, and I assumed nothing was happening in the tropics.

I think you're a microcosm of the board.  Most people aren't aware of/don't care about anything less than a top tier hurricane hitting Mexico, especially from the Pacific.  

[Chinook]

Major Hurricane Roslyn is close to the coast, near Puerto Vallarta. Intensity is 115 kt. Here is a segment of the discussion from 3:00PM Mountain time today (Oct 23)

Quote

Hurricane Roslyn Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192022
300 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022
 
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Roslyn
found 700-mb flight-level winds of 124 kt in the northeastern
eyewall and a central pressure of 954 mb. These data, combined with
multiple satellite intensity estimates near 115 kt, support keeping
the initial intensity at 115 kt.  That make Roslyn a Category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

[Windspeed]

A good example of why satellite can sometimes be deceiving. Roslyn is still an intense hurricane. Despite the eye being overcast with cloud debris, the eyewall is still very much intact and should have destructive impacts through landfall. Note the extreme lightning GLM data. Structure is still solid.

[NorthHillsWx]

Per Josh’s twitter, sounds like Roslyn delivered the goods

[Amped]

Gonna post Josh's Twitter on Roslyn.  Sounds pretty insane.

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Adrian is bringing the thread back from 8 months of hibernation.  The one after is the one that could get close enough to Mexico to be interesting.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Adrian is the first W. Hemisphere hurricane of 2023.

[Boston Bulldog]

Two Hurricanes, two eyes in the EPAC

 

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 301500
TCDEP2

Hurricane Beatriz Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022023
1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

Recent GOES 1-minute visible and infrared satellite imagery show 
that an eye is forming.  A special classification from TAFB yielded 
an estimate of T4.0/65 kt, and raw UW-CIMSS ADT values are also up 
to 4.0.  Therefore, Beatriz has been upgraded to a hurricane with 
maximum winds estimated to be 65 kt.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane 
plane is scheduled to investigate the storm in a few hours, 
hopefully providing a refinement in the estimated intensity.

Beatriz's initial motion remains northwestward, or 305/11 kt.  The
storm is expected to continue moving northwestward during the next
48 hours as it moves along the southwestern periphery of a
mid-level ridge located over the southern United States and
northern Mexico.  However, as is often the case with cyclones
paralleling the west coast of Mexico, there is significant
uncertainty as to whether Beatriz's center will continue to skirt
the coast or move inland at some point.  The NHC track forecast
continues to show a scenario where Beatriz grazes the coast during
the next 24-36 hours, but models such as the ECMWF and UKMET do
bring the system inland and show dissipation.  If Beatriz survives
the next 48 hours, it would then likely slow down and turn toward
the west-northwest as a mid-level ridge builds over the
southwestern U.S.

If Beatriz's center remains offshore, environmental conditions
should otherwise be conducive for additional strengthening during
the next 12-24 hours, and the storm is forecast to remain a 
hurricane until after it passes Cabo Corrientes.  On the other hand, 
if the center reaches land, the mountainous terrain of Mexico would 
likely cause rapid weakening.  Assuming survival during the next 36 
hours, increasing shear out of the east-northeast, cooler sea 
surface temperatures, and a drier, more subsident environment would 
likely lead to gradual weakening on days 2 and 3.  Based on the 
latest global model guidance, Beatriz is likely to have degenerated 
into a remnant low by day 4 and dissipate by day 5.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Beatriz is forecast to continue strengthening and remain a 
hurricane through Saturday, bringing a risk of hurricane-force 
winds and a dangerous storm surge to portions of the southwestern 
coast of Mexico during the next day or so.  A Hurricane Warning is 
in effect for portions of the coasts of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, 
and Jalisco, and hurricane conditions are expected somewhere in
those areas later today and on Saturday.

2. Locally heavy rainfall is expected across southern Mexico from
the state of Oaxaca westward to the state of Nayarit.  These rains
could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/1500Z 17.3N 102.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 18.2N 103.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z 19.4N 105.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z 20.4N 106.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  02/1200Z 21.3N 107.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  03/0000Z 21.7N 108.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  03/1200Z 22.0N 109.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  04/1200Z 22.6N 111.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

[so_whats_happening]

So how often do we see the potential of a system lasting not only to Hawaii ( I feel like this is a 1 in 5 year type of thing for Hawaii) but also going even into the WPAC?

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

15 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

So how often do we see the potential of a system lasting not only to Hawaii ( I feel like this is a 1 in 5 year type of thing for Hawaii) but also going even into the WPAC?

Ocean E of the islands is below 26 and the islands of the Big Island have shredded TCs before, but Calvin could be the first US tropical storm of the year.

[olafminesaw]

15 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

So how often do we see the potential of a system lasting not only to Hawaii ( I feel like this is a 1 in 5 year type of thing for Hawaii) but also going even into the WPAC?

I count only three - Ruth (1965), Winona (1989), & Ruth (1994). This is counting storms that passed within 100 miles of HI, & is inexact based on the crossover longitude as the NOAA doesn't display them. Winona is perhaps the most impressive in that it formed East of Hawaii and struck the Philippines as a tropical depression.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

I count only three - Ruth (1965), Winona (1989), & Ruth (1994). This is counting storms that passed within 100 miles of HI, & is inexact based on the crossover longitude as the NOAA doesn't display them. Winona is perhaps the most impressive in that it formed East of Hawaii and struck the Philippines as a tropical depression.

Does Iniki count?  I know it tracked well S of Hawaii, over the warmer SSTs and curved N.  Memorable for striking Kauai in daylight hours when many people had home video cameras.  Pre-cell phone era, but better quality video.

[Boston Bulldog]

Dora has completed its EWRC and has restrengthened into a Category 4 storm with winds of 145mph. Beautiful presentation on IR satellite right now

 

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

5 hours ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Dora has completed its EWRC and has restrengthened into a Category 4 storm with winds of 145mph. Beautiful presentation on IR satellite right now

 

 

Yeah I was surprised know when was talking about this storm. Very resilient microcane. Contains some annular properties which would explain the resilience. Very long track too

[Windspeed]

SSTs are marginal 26.5-27°C for what you would expect to support a Category 4. But given the donut annular structure and relative fast motion of 18kts, the eyewall appears to have just enough OHC to maintain intensity. Will be interesting to see how long Dora can keep this up. The TC has generated 20 ACE points so far. SSTs remain around 27°C on a due west heading. However, there does appear to be some increasing easterly trades in a few days south of Hawaii which may impart some mid-level shear, or possibly force surrounding dry air into the circulation.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Dora looks spectacular this morning. This is going to be one monster ace producer as it has several more days as a major. 

[Windspeed]

Dora looks spectacular this morning. This is going to be one monster ace producer as it has several more days as a major. 

Dora has generated up to 31 points of ACE already.

[NorthHillsWx]

2 hours ago, Windspeed said:

5 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Dora looks spectacular this morning. This is going to be one monster ace producer as it has several more days as a major. 

Dora has generated up to 31 points of ACE already.

Dora might have etched its place in history as the most impressive microcane ever witnessed. Day after day of a tiny perfectly symmetrical high end system 

[Windspeed]

Dora is very intense with a presentation looking like a high end Cat 4 right now.

[Windspeed]

Very strong trades have been wreaking havoc on Hawaii the past few days. Influenced by tight gradient funneling between the strong ridge to the north and Major Hurricane Dora to the south. The Lee side of the volcanic topography and the gradient is fueling ongoing devastating wildfires.