Central & Eastern Pacific Thread

[Windspeed]

NHC is forecasting a Category 3 landfall for Hurricane Rick. But the core looks to be in a favorable environment for some beefy rapid intensity gains over the next 24 hours. Leaning towards Rick being a Category 4 landfall near or between Lázaro Cárdenas and Zihautanejo. Hopefully not a direct hit on either city.

lol, and then marginal mid level shear and structural core issues had other plans it seems. Rick may not even reach Cat 3. Something something that whole forecasting intensity is hard bit.

Although Rick has been in a seemingly conducive environment for strengthening, the hurricane has not intensified much. This reminds us of our limited understanding of tropical cyclone intensity change. Nonetheless, since Rick should remain over warm waters and in a fairly moist mid-level atmospheric environment before reaching the coast, the official forecast continues to call for some strengthening during the next 12 hours or so. When the center nears the coast, some increase in southwesterly shear and the interaction with the mountainous land mass of southern Mexico could cause some weakening. After landfall, the cyclone will weaken rapidly and the system may lose its identity sooner than shown in this forecast.

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

lol, and then marginal mid level shear and structural core issues had other plans it seems. Rick may not even reach Cat 3. Something something that whole forecasting intensity is hard bit.
 

Might not even be a hurricane at landfall lol. This is the second East Pac storm in a row that failed to strengthen despite aggressive forecasts 

[Windspeed]

Might not even be a hurricane at landfall lol. This is the second East Pac storm in a row that failed to strengthen despite aggressive forecasts 

Yeah, and just to clarify my post, I certainly am not bashing the official forecast. I also clearly thought this would even outperform their intensity forecast with my Cat 4 call. The environment did look primed for RI as a hurricane, not just initial development. But sneaky micro-regional atmospheric conditions, i.e., upper-level northerlies off the central American continent versus mid-level steering flow must have played out as a deterrent here. The structure is just taking way to long to evolve.

[yoda]

I guess we will continue to use this thread for 2022?

 

[WxWatcher007]

I’d be shocked if 91E weren’t a TC at the next update. 

[WxWatcher007]

RI in the EPAC

Hurricane Agatha Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012022
1000 AM CDT Sun May 29 2022

Agatha is rapidly intensifying. Recent conventional and microwave 
satellite data have shown that the storm's convective structure has 
significantly improved overnight and this morning.  Overnight 
microwave imagery indicated that a low to mid-level eye had formed 
and more recent 1109 and 1206 UTC SSMIS overpasses revealed that 
the inner-core structure has continued to improve.  Subjective 
Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were 77 and 65 kt, 
respectively, while objective Dvorak estimates have increased to 
near 75 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity has been set 
at 75 kt.  

The environment ahead of Agatha is expected to remain favorable 
for further intensification.  The hurricane is currently over SSTs 
of around 30C, within low shear, and embedded in a moist low- to 
mid-level atmosphere.  As a result, continued steady to rapid 
strengthening is predicted during the next 12-24 hours after which 
time the hurricane's intensity is likely to level off due to a 
possible eyewall cycle and/or interaction with land. The updated 
NHC intensity forecast is notably higher than the previous advisory 
due to the higher initial intensity and likelihood of continued 
rapid strengthening today. The new intensity forecast brings Agatha 
to near major hurricane strength before landfall in southern Mexico 
and is in best agreement with the SHIPS model.  After landfall 
Agatha should rapidly weaken as it moves over the mountains terrain 
of southern Mexico.

Agatha has been meandering this morning, but the longer term initial 
motion estimate is 345/2 kt. The hurricane should turn northward 
this afternoon, and then begin to move on a faster northeastward 
motion tonight and Monday as it becomes embedded in southwesterly 
flow between a mid- to upper-level trough over northern Mexico and a 
mid- to upper-level ridge to its east.  On the foreast track, Agatha 
is expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico tonight, and 
move onshore on Monday.  The latest track guidance is once again 
slower than before, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted 
accordingly.  The new NHC track remains near the middle of the 
guidance envelope, close to the various consensus aids. 


Key Messages:

1. Dangerous coastal flooding from storm surge accompanied by large
and destructive waves is expected near and the east of where Agatha
makes landfall.

2. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions 
of the hurricane warning area in southern Mexico on Monday, with 
tropical storm conditions beginning there tonight or early Monday.  
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning 
area on Monday.

3. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will develop over portions of
southern Mexico later today and continue through Tuesday. This will
pose a threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1500Z 14.1N  99.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 14.4N  98.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 14.9N  98.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  31/0000Z 15.7N  96.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  31/1200Z 16.6N  95.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 60H  01/0000Z 17.4N  95.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 72H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

 

[cptcatz]

It'll be interesting to see how far east this gets before making landfall and if it can bypass the part of Southern Oaxaca that sticks out. If it gets east of that, it could cross the Isthmus of Tehuantepec which is only 124 miles wide with a max elevation under 1,000 feet. That could be a big factor in how disrupted it gets before moving into the Gulf of Mexico. 12z Icon has it getting pretty close, although it still dissipates it.

[turtlehurricane]

im starting to make video updates of all the hurricane related stuff going on, starting with Agatha! 

[WxWatcher007]

Darby is a beaut. RI ongoing this morning. 

[WxWatcher007]

65kt intensification in 24 hours.

 

[Boston Bulldog]

After briefly disappearing, Darby has cleared out it's eye again and has unexpectedly restrengthened into a major hurricane. Latest update has winds at 115mph and pressure back down to 968.

Great storm, all the way from when it looked like it was trying to rapidly intensify while as an invest! I can recall that the first advisory had it peaking as a Category 1, quite the overachiever

[Boston Bulldog]

Microcane

[NorthHillsWx]

After a lull, EPAC looks to get going again

[Amped]

It's going to be a close call next week for Cabo San Lucas. Ignore the Euro intensity because it's probably under done unless this stays close to land.

[Chinook]

A second named storm could get going in about 108 hours near south Mexico

[Kevin Reilly]

Anyone see the 18z Gfs sends a tropical system into Southern California inches and inches of rain 

[Voyager]

On 9/3/2022 at 5:52 PM, Kevin Reilly said:

Anyone see the 18z Gfs sends a tropical system into Southern California inches and inches of rain 

I have. Even PHX is taking notice as they are indicating lower temps and potential moisture here in the Arzona deserts this upcoming weekend.

[Rjay]

Models still showing a TC off the coast of Southern California in a few days. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

"K" is headed for LA, What does it mean?

[KPITSnow]

Kind of surprised no one is talking more about Kay. Almost unheard of to see a storm get this close to the california coast.

[Amped]

8 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

"K" is headed for LA, What does it mean?

It's gonna rain.

[Kevin Reilly]

4 minutes ago, Amped said:

It's gonna rain.

Well, for me it means that this remnant tropical system which I have in my lifetime, (or maybe I just don't remember the last tropical system to affect them??) never seen before going up into Southern California is going to happen.  There will be significant flooding for sure.  They need to batten down the hatches for winds out of the Southeast and heavy rain.

[Voyager]

On 9/7/2022 at 2:57 PM, Kevin Reilly said:

Well, for me it means that this remnant tropical system which I have in my lifetime, (or maybe I just don't remember the last tropical system to affect them??) never seen before going up into Southern California is going to happen.  There will be significant flooding for sure.  They need to batten down the hatches for winds out of the Southeast and heavy rain.

West coast tropical systems aren't as rare as you might think. There's been numerous storms that have affected Southern California and Arizona. One that I remember from my previous stint in Phoenix was Nora (1997) which made landfall in the Baja and then rode right up the Colorado River toward Las Vegas.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Arizona_hurricanes

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[WxWatcher007]

15 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

Haha I just posted this in the Kay thread.

[StormchaserChuck!]

LA could probably see a Cat 3 hurricane in the right conditions.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

2 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

LA could probably see a Cat 3 hurricane in the right conditions.

I remember Cat 5 Linda when there was a question as to whether a trough would recurve it towards Los Angeles.  Warmer than normal waters of SoCal.  That might have still been a hurricane, based on the E modelling, but I didn't see a major.  Been a few years, of course.

 

It missed the trough, obviously.

[GaWx]

 The 10/8 12Z ICON and UKMET bring Julia almost to the S tip of Baja Cal. at the ends of their runs as an intact TC a week from today!

 The 10/9 12Z UKMET after reformation in the EPAC actually hits Baja south tip on Saturday (10/15) followed by a move of the moisture into southern AZ/NM on Sunday 10/16.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

That time of year when East Pac tropics can affect our sensible weather.  The GEFS means are not showing a flood event for Texas but the 10/70 lemon/cherry does help the drought.  Should be 90E in a day or three.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

That time of year when East Pac tropics can affect our sensible weather.  The GEFS means are not showing a flood event for Texas but the 10/70 lemon/cherry does help the drought.  Should be 90E in a day or three.

Now 20/80. Mid October genesis climo still active with a good % that form just off MX later recurving back NE into MX:

 It finally starts to get less active late in the month though with still a decent level of activity, again including a pretty good % that recurve into MX:

 

 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Oct 17 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad trough of low pressure has formed a few hundred miles south
of the southern coast of Mexico and is producing a large area of
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form late this week while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10-15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin