Kevin Reilly Posted August 21 Share Posted August 21 4 hours ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Moggity mog Hurricane GILMA As of 18:00 UTC Aug 21, 2024: Location: 16.2°N 122.9°W Maximum Winds: 90 kt Gusts: N/A Minimum Central Pressure: 972 mb Environmental Pressure: N/A Radius of Circulation: N/A Radius of Maximum wind: 10 nm That looks stronger than a Cat 1 as a matter of fact that looks better than Ernesto at any point of its lifetime. I would estimate that as Cat 3 115-125 mph looks like it is moving off to the WNW and probably should peak now and within the next 10 hours as it moves into more stable air and SSTs. Then you have the other invest heading towards Hawaii. Pretty interesting being we are heading into or already are in La Nina. Guess the waters are pretty toasty out there so that gets me to thinking what the hell phase are we in La Nina or El Nino or maybe it is more neutral conditions at this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 59 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: That looks stronger than a Cat 1 jfl she is now a c2: 2:00 PM PDT Wed Aug 21 Location: 16.3°N 123.2°W Moving: WNW at 7 mph Min pressure: 972 mb Max sustained: 105 mph 59 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: as a matter of fact that looks better than Ernesto at any point of its lifetime. CAGED HARD AT THIS, JFL. Broooooootal for ernesto 59 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: I would estimate that as Cat 3 115-125 mph looks like it is moving off to the WNW and probably should peak now and within the next 10 hours as it moves into more stable air and SSTs. What do you think? C3 seems reasonable tbh 59 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Then you have the other invest heading towards Hawaii. Pretty interesting being we are heading into or already are in La Nina. Guess the waters are pretty toasty out there so that gets me to thinking what the hell phase are we in La Nina or El Nino or maybe it is more neutral conditions at this time. I'm thinking it's neutral TBH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 16 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: jfl she is now a c2: 2:00 PM PDT Wed Aug 21 Location: 16.3°N 123.2°W Moving: WNW at 7 mph Min pressure: 972 mb Max sustained: 105 mph CAGED HARD AT THIS, JFL. Broooooootal for ernesto What do you think? C3 seems reasonable tbh I'm thinking it's neutral TBH Yea definitely makes it to Cat 3 before leveling off and yes neutral seems reasonable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 22 Author Share Posted August 22 The disturbance that may threaten Hawaii would be approaching from a direction that typically is not conducive for strong hurricanes. However, currently, SSTs are marginally supportive SE of Hawaiʻi Island (the Big Island) if our hypothetical TC can get going and establish an inner core. The shallow 26-27°C layer might provide just enough thermal support for a minimal hurricane that maintains a steady rate of motion. A compact structure may also aid in intensity. Hopefully, any potential TC, regardless of TS or minimal 'cane, would remain far enough south to lessen impacts, perhaps only to provide some beneficial rains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 15 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said: Yea definitely makes it to Cat 3 before leveling off and yes neutral seems reasonable. 125mph 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 20 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: 125mph I think that was what I had this caping at 125 mph. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 1 minute ago, Kevin Reilly said: I think that was what I had this caping at 125 mph. nah she mogs that category 4 expected 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gallopinggertie Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 Looks like a typical situation for Hawaii, with one storm passing well to the south of the islands followed by another storm weakening greatly as it approaches from the east. It’s amazing how well-defended Hawaii is from hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 23 Author Share Posted August 23 Little change in intensity is expected in the next 12 to 18 hours, followed intensification Saturday and Sunday. Easterly winds aloft, which have inhibited outflow in all but the south and southwest quadrants, will relax tonight and Saturday as a weakness develops in the upper level ridge north of the cyclone. Sea surface temperatures will remain around 26-27C, which will be sufficient for intensification, possibly to hurricane strength, later in the weekend. By Monday, westerly vertical wind shear increases sharply, and some drier mid-level air appears to begin entraining into the system. This should result in steady weakening. The intensity forecast was changed little from the prior package and lies near the IVCN between the stronger dynamical guidance and the weaker statistical guidance. Easterly mid-to-upper flow has kept the core of the Hone rather devoid of convection today. The CPHC is forecasting that flow to relax on Saturday, which should allow convection to rebuild around the core. At any rate, this is the reasoning behind Hone's delay in intensification, and it isn't forecast to approach hurricane strength until positioned south of the island chain, having already bypassed the Big Island. In the last few hours, a new burst of convection is trying to wrap upshear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 24 Share Posted August 24 On 8/22/2024 at 12:18 PM, CurlyHeadBarrett said: nah she mogs that category 4 expected How is Gilma doing getting to Cat 4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 24 Share Posted August 24 Tropical Storm Hone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 24 Share Posted August 24 4 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said: How is Gilma doing getting to Cat 4? it's over shear mogged her 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 24 Share Posted August 24 4 hours ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: it's over shear mogged her Cooler waters too and stable air. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 24 Share Posted August 24 19 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Cooler waters too and stable air. jova for gilma. Maybe she can get another C3 peak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gallopinggertie Posted August 24 Share Posted August 24 Hone is forecast to pass within about 50 miles of the Big Island as a 65 mph tropical storm. I think this is the closest brush Hawaii has had with a storm this strong since Iselle, which made landfall on the big island ten years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 24 Share Posted August 24 1 hour ago, gallopinggertie said: Hone is forecast to pass within about 50 miles of the Big Island as a 65 mph tropical storm. I think this is the closest brush Hawaii has had with a storm this strong since Iselle, which made landfall on the big island ten years ago. Bro wtf is up with that name Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gallopinggertie Posted August 24 Share Posted August 24 2 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Bro wtf is up with that name The first Google result that pops up for “Iselle” is the wiki article from the hurricane. The name itself seems to be very obscure indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 25 Share Posted August 25 Hone's rainfall is now being seen by radar very nicely 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 25 Author Share Posted August 25 So far, so good. Hone has failed to intensify further. Environmental conditons are managing to keep the TC in check. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 25 Author Share Posted August 25 Improvement in structure on IR and radar due to persistent convective bursting that has occurred since the last recon mission. We'll see if this translates to any deepening via the recon mission currently in progress. Should have a new VDM within the hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 25 Author Share Posted August 25 64 kt SFMR in the NW quadrant. Hone is probably a minimal hurricane now. We'll see what the next pass through the NE quadrant shows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gallopinggertie Posted August 25 Share Posted August 25 4 minutes ago, Windspeed said: 64 kt SFMR in the NW quadrant. Hone is probably a minimal hurricane now. We'll see what the next pass through the NE quadrant shows. If so, this might be the closest hurricane to pass by Hawaii since Iniki? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 25 Author Share Posted August 25 If so, this might be the closest hurricane to pass by Hawaii since Iniki?If officially upgraded, it will be, yes. With the current radar presentation and in situ recon data, CPHC may issue a special advisory, though they may wait on the NE pass to the reconfirm before releasing it.Edit: Latest VDM:939 URPN12 KNHC 250617VORTEX DATA MESSAGE CP012024A. 25/05:48:30ZB. 18.10 deg N 154.76 deg WC. 850 mb 1378 mD. 991 mbE. 235 deg 3 ktF. OPEN SEG. E09/24/20H. 64 ktI. 316 deg 14 nm 05:43:30ZJ. 055 deg 79 ktK. 314 deg 16 nm 05:43:00ZL. 43 ktM. 135 deg 18 nm 05:54:00ZN. 208 deg 51 ktO. 135 deg 18 nm 05:54:00ZP. 14 C / 1532 mQ. 22 C / 1522 mR. 17 C / NAS. 12345 / 08T. 0.02 / 2 nmU. AF308 0701C HONE OB 04MAX FL WIND 79 KT 314 / 16 NM 05:43:00Z; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 25 Author Share Posted August 25 NE quadrant was weaker than the previous NW pass. Interestingly, the NW quadrant of the eyewall had the most intense echoes. Not sure if this will be enough for any upgrade. Again, it's borderline. We'll see if they do a south to N for their final pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted August 25 Share Posted August 25 For being only a minimal hurricane, Kone certainly looks quite amazing on radar 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 25 Author Share Posted August 25 Hone has clearly organized further overnight and now has a clearing eye with multiple CBs rotating around it. Radar is also telling. The hurricane appears to have intensified. It will be interesting to see how the flow over the Big Island affects and influences Hone's structure. The Lee side of Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea's massifs will most likely have some type of deformation on the core as the hurricane positions SW of the island. In fact, that may already be occurring as the eyewall appears pinched in the NW quadrant. Also, keep in mind that the radar beam is blocked to the SW to N due to Mauna Loa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 25 Share Posted August 25 1 hour ago, Windspeed said: Hone has clearly organized further overnight and now has a clearing eye with multiple CBs rotating around it. Radar is also telling. The hurricane appears to have intensified. It will be interesting to see how the flow over the Big Island affects and influences Hone's structure. The Lee side of Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea's massifs will most likely have some type of deformation on the core as the hurricane positions SW of the island. In fact, that may already be occurring as the eyewall appears pinched in the NW quadrant. Also, keep in mind that the radar beam is blocked to the SW to N due to Mauna Loa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 25 Share Posted August 25 Hurricane Hone with over 80 knots seen on base velocity in a few moments 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 What a beaut! Looking a bit annular. Looks stronger than 105 mph... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted Thursday at 09:58 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:58 PM TS Ileana in the east pac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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