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Central & Eastern Pacific Thread


Windspeed
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Article on wing gust as well as early predictions on insurance damage. The fact that alot of Acapulco (including some commercial real estate) is not insured is going to make this even worse long term.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/11/01/hurricane-otis-produced-205-mph-wind-gust-among-strongest-ever-measured/

 

“The direct physical damage and net-loss business interruption costs from Hurricane Otis will result in a minimum $10 billion in economic losses,” Steve Bowen, chief science officer for the global reinsurance broker Gallagher Re, said in an email. “It will be one of the costliest natural catastrophe events on record for Mexico.”

Verisk, a data analytics and technology firm, estimates insured losses of 3 to 6 billion dollars, most of it due to Otis’s extreme winds.

 

 

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Otis is easily one of the wildest hurricanes I’ve seen.  The damage it did in the small amount of time was something else.  Hopefully the city is on their way to a fast recovery

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image.png.9063c6e6ee72b688a47fe91528691807.png

JFL I JUST WENT ON THE NHC FRONT PAGE AND SAW THIS

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/2100Z 17.1N 112.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 17.6N 113.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 17.8N 115.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  26/0600Z 17.7N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  26/1800Z 17.3N 118.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  27/0600Z 16.6N 119.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

 

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17 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

cool in 1866

There used to be a poster who named himself here for the marijuana of the Hindu Kush.  He'd love a storm named 'Bud'.

 

The E side of the LLC is exposed, It looks like shear, but CIMMS shows only 10 knots.  GFS shows dry air to the N and E that looks like it will follow Bud for a while.

  • Haha 2
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  • 4 weeks later...

Invest 90E 

6 hours ago, gallopinggertie said:

Any thoughts on invests 90/91 in the Central Pacific? NHC has them up to 90% and it looks like any storm that forms will track close to Hawaii.

Once 90E forms a clear center of circulation, we should get a better idea of most likely track. Having tracked for the last few days since this threat started to show up in long range models, cone has included misses North and South of the islands but have been coming together to suggest big island is at risk for a cat 1 hurricane or strong TS. The tracks that hit big island also impact the other islands albeit with a significantly weakened storm. Flash flooding and mudslides are generally the biggest risks.

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c4 peak sheeeit

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 16.3N 123.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 16.6N 124.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 16.9N 125.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 17.1N 126.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 17.4N 127.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 24/0600Z 17.6N 129.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 17.7N 131.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 18.0N 134.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 18.5N 138.6W 75 KT 85 MPH

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