Eskimo Joe Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 @olafminesaw I would posit that would be beneficial. Dilution of surface water and recharging of groundwater. To be honest, I'm quick excited to see how this would play out. Imagine if we somehow saw this happen maybe once or twice a decade in the future due to climate change, etc. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 Having been to the Salton Sea a few years ago: 1) everything near it on the North, West, and East sides has been abandoned so there's nothing to destroy. Very flat area so even minor increases in lake level will radically increase side 2) The problem is the Imperial Valley to the immediate South; this is below sea level and is one of the most important agricultural areas in the country and fairly densely populated. I could imagine a vast area being flooded with moderately salty water which would be pretty disastrous. Remember the Gulf of California used to extend all the way to the Salton Sea fairly recently in geologic time. It was cut off by the Colorado River Delta sediments. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 Explicitly forecast to be a TS over southern CA. Obviously there’s novelty to that but the rainfall impacts could be bad. Especially with a further west track that brings heavier rain toward the population centers at the coast IMO. Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023 900 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2023 Hilary has continued to intensify rapidly. The cloud pattern of this large hurricane is very impressive, with extremely intense deep convection and cloud tops to -80 deg C or colder. Well-defined banding features are evident over all quadrants of the circulation. The upper-level outflow pattern is quite symmetric and expanding. Satellite intensity estimates are wide-ranging and the Dvorak technique rules do not allow subjective current intensity estimates much above 65-70 kt. However based on data T-numbers the advisory intensity is set, perhaps conservatively, to 75 kt. The hurricane is moving west-northwestward, or about 300/12 kt. Over the next few days, a mid-level ridge to the north of Hilary is forecast to shift eastward while a mid-level low remains near the California coast. This evolution of the steering currents should result in a gradual turn toward the north in a couple of days, which would bring Hilary near the Baja California peninsula in 72 hours or so and near the U.S./California border in 3-4 days. The official forecast track is very similar to the previous one, and follows the HFIP corrected consensus, HCCA, guidance. Although there is fairly high confidence in the track prediction, Hilary's oblique angle of approach to the west coast of the Baja California peninsula makes it nearly impossible to know at this point if the center will remain just offshore or move over the peninsula before reaching the southwestern United States. Hilary is in an environment of low shear and high mid- to low-level humidity, and over very warm waters. The SHIPS rapid intensification (RI) indices show extremely high probabilities of rapid intensification during the next day or so. Therefore the official intensity forecast shows a 40-kt increase over the next 24 hours. Later in the forecast period, cooler waters and land interaction should result in some weakening. The official wind speed forecast is near or a little above the latest HCCA guidance. The surface circulation is likely to be dissipated by day 5, but a day 5 forecast point (as a remnant low) is still provided to maintain a forecast track over southern California. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Hilary may produce areas of flash flooding and result in landslides over portions of Baja California Peninsula from late Friday into late Sunday. Rainfall impacts from Hilary within the Southwestern United States are expected to peak this weekend into Monday. Flash, urban, and arroyo flooding, is possible with the potential for significant impacts. 2. Hilary has the potential to bring significant impacts to the Baja California Peninsula and portions of the southwestern United States this weekend and early next week, including after it becomes post-tropical. Although it is too soon to determine the location and magnitude of wind impacts, interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Hilary and updates to the forecast. Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches are now in effect for southern portions of Baja California Sur, and additional watches or warnings will likely be required later today. 3. Large swells from Hilary will spread northward along the coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 15.5N 107.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 16.4N 109.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 17.6N 111.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 19.3N 112.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 21.2N 113.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 20/0000Z 23.6N 114.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 26.6N 115.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 33.4N 116.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 120H 22/1200Z 41.0N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 Organizing quickly over the last few hours. You can see a solid cdo ring now and the eye trying to clear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Hurricane Jova is a monster right now. Current advisory has it at 130 mph/953 mb, but I guarantee it is considerably stronger. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Absolute beauty of a cyclone out there today 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 160 mph Cat 5 at 11 pm. 80 kt increase in intensity since this morning. Absolutely nuclear 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 What a nuke…and we’re going to have one in each basin soon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 16 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: What a nuke…and we’re going to have one in each basin soon. NHC actually has this getting to 175mph in the 12h forecast frame, incredible. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 23 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: 160 mph Cat 5 at 11 pm. 80 kt increase in intensity since this morning. Absolutely nuclear 2 hours ago, hlcater said: Absolute beauty of a cyclone out there today I actually think based on T estimates and that wrapped ring, 160mph may be conservative for what Jova is doing right now, might be a 175mph storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 2 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 i doubt lee will ever look as good as jova does.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 5 hours ago, nycwinter said: i doubt lee will ever look as good as jova does.. Some of the HAFS-B runs would disagree, but we'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 14 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: All eyes squarely back on Lee, now. Even though Jova is still kinda pretty she's getting a little long in the tooth. Quite literally yesterday's news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 4 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: All eyes squarely back on Lee, now. Even though Jova is still kinda pretty she's getting a little long in the tooth. Quite literally yesterday's news. Lee is the main and Jova is the side piece Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Anyone have a graphic that shows the extent/size/how F'ng wide is this thing of Jova's circulation? Like its outer bands don't fit in the screen here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 31 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Anyone have a graphic that shows the extent/size/how F'ng wide is this thing of Jova's circulation? Like its outer bands don't fit in the screen here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 The decay was pretty neat to watch actually. Cold water starved the cyclone from the inside out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 2 hours ago, EliasDePoot said: Why do planes do this? This was Jova: Speculating that they did not want to extend their flight. JFK to AKL is 18 hours non stop, it is one of the longest routes in the world. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted September 24, 2023 Share Posted September 24, 2023 12 hours ago, EliasDePoot said: How does it feel to fly inside a hurricane on a commercial jet? Especially one of Jova's caliber? I'd be surprised if it was even noticed by the passengers.The aircraft flies at 400 kts and at 40,000 ft, so well above the low level turbulence and will probably gain bonus speed thanks to the hurricane winds, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 Looks to me Lidia is significantly stronger than what the NHC is showing. Nice CDO and eye popping despite the easterly shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 55 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Looks to me Lidia is significantly stronger than what the NHC is showing. Nice CDO and eye popping despite the easterly shear. 29 years ago the mid level circulation of Hurricane Rosa survived the Sierra Madre and set the San Jacinto river on fire. Rosa was a major, of course, maybe it is just weenieism, but I think it is at least a hurricane at landfall in the Baja Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 10, 2023 Share Posted October 10, 2023 Lidia growing teeth quickly this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 10, 2023 Share Posted October 10, 2023 Lidia now a major Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted October 10, 2023 Share Posted October 10, 2023 People are sleeping on this. Could be a big hit for puerto Vallarta (may come in just south but tough to tell). Storm is really cranking right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 10, 2023 Share Posted October 10, 2023 Recon found peak surface winds of 108 knots, this should be a category 4 hurricane soon and still has some very warm waters to traverse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 10, 2023 Share Posted October 10, 2023 Lidia's pressure is down to 950 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 10, 2023 Share Posted October 10, 2023 Major Rapidly intensifying into landfall. This doesn’t happen on Mexico’s west coast often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 10, 2023 Share Posted October 10, 2023 Drop of 3mb between passes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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