Windspeed Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 Already at the "F" named storm and we didn't even make a thread. We have not seen anything crazy at this point, but it's not exactly been quiet either. Felicia is intensifying and expected to become a hurricane by tomorrow. No threat to land. I am sure someone will want to post "bye" when it dissipates over cooler surface waters next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 15, 2021 Share Posted July 15, 2021 Felicia has undergone quite a spurt of RI since yesterday. A TD to a 75 kt storm in under 24 hours. Looks pretty organized this morning as well, so it seems to be continuing the trend and will possibly become a major. With the track continuing to shift south, it keeps the storm over warmer SST than originally forecast. One thing noted in this mornings discussion will be the dry air surrounding the system later in the forecast period. While this can certainly cause weakening, looking at the HWRF model, the storm takes on an annular appearance later on. With low shear, this is certainly possible especially if the storm continues to strengthen in the short term. Fairly common in the E Pac too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 Felicia has gone beast mode this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 zomg it’s annular 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 Felicia has become a beautiful annular hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 It's nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 17, 2021 Author Share Posted July 17, 2021 A symmetrical doughnut... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 17, 2021 Author Share Posted July 17, 2021 lol.. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 I follow a page called Force Thirteen on FB and they claimed this hit cat 5 status 4hrs ago. Anyone know if that's true? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 Yet another example of rapid intensification/unforcasted intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 17, 2021 Author Share Posted July 17, 2021 I follow a page called Force Thirteen on FB and they claimed this hit cat 5 status 4hrs ago. Anyone know if that's true?No. There is certainly nothing official with regards to forecast discussion or analysis that suggests this is a Category 5. TAFB Dvorak analysis hit T6.5/127 kts per discussion and ADT numbers are about 10 kts lower. Felicia has already maxed out for an annular-type TC within the current thermodynamic environment. It would need to drop a bit more latitude and reach warmer SSTs to get any stronger. Even with cooler upper tropospheric temperatures, Felicia's core is riding a 26.5 to 27°C isotherm. Its eyewall has probably maxed out potential intensity at its current westward vector of motion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, Windspeed said: 32 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: I follow a page called Force Thirteen on FB and they claimed this hit cat 5 status 4hrs ago. Anyone know if that's true? No. There is certainly nothing official with regards to forecast discussion or analysis that suggests this is a Category 5. TAFB Dvorak analysis hit T6.5/127 kts per discussion and ADT numbers are about 10 kts lower. Felicia has already maxed out for an annular-type TC within the current thermodynamic environment. It would need to drop a bit more latitude and reach warmer SSTs to get any stronger. Even with cooler upper tropospheric temperatures, Felicia's core is riding a 26.5 to 27°C isotherm. Its eyewall has probably maxed out potential intensity at its current westward vector of motion. I agree with you. Someone needs to call out this page for spreading false information. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx_2001 Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: I agree with you. Someone needs to call out this page for spreading false information. They do that all the time. They come up with their own intensity estimates that many times have zero data to support it. I don't pay any attention to them. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 6 hours ago, StormChaser4Life said: I agree with you. Someone needs to call out this page for spreading false information. Lol, I wonder if this is that Midwest Hurricane Center joker from years back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 @Windspeed @WxWatcher007 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 The weather started getting rough, The tiny ship was tossed, If not for the courage of the fearless crew The minnow would be lost, the minnow would be lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 18, 2021 Share Posted July 18, 2021 Just an incredibly impressive storm. Perfectly symmetrical 120 kt storm still this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 18, 2021 Author Share Posted July 18, 2021 Felicia indeed still looks impressive. Some WSW VWS should begin increasing over the next 24-36 hrs. This combined with a subtle decrease in thermodynamic support should bring on a gradual weakening into abrupt faster weakening into Tuesday. The HWRF shows a period of rapid weakening on Tuesday as the MLC gets decoupled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 18, 2021 Author Share Posted July 18, 2021 Felicia at 18z on Tuesday per HWRF. I suspect it will weaken even faster than the HWRF is modeling due to very dry stable airmass being advected into the core with the increasing southwesterly VWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 18, 2021 Share Posted July 18, 2021 1 hour ago, Windspeed said: Felicia at 18z on Tuesday per HWRF. I suspect it will weaken even faster than the HWRF is modeling due to very dry stable airmass being advected into the core with the increasing southwesterly VWS. Felicia’s days are numbered, but it definitely defied modeling and dry air with light shear, annular hurricanes are amazing specimens. They are almost completely self sustaining when shear remains light, even completely wrapped by a dry environment. Would have LOVED to see some radar images from this storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted July 19, 2021 Share Posted July 19, 2021 I just find this amusing for some reason... Feisty Felicia, and of course the one below it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 19, 2021 Share Posted July 19, 2021 3 hours ago, Rhino16 said: I just find this amusing for some reason... Feisty Felicia, and of course the one below it. I don't get the Guillermo reference? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 13, 2021 Author Share Posted August 13, 2021 Hurricane Linda in the EPAC looks like its entering a period of RI. This may really go nuts over the next 24 hours. If this seems eerily familiar, that's because the name Linda is synonymous with powerful EPAC hurricanes. 1997 Major Hurricane Linda reached Category 5 intensity and is eclipsed only by Patricia as the most powerful EPAC hurricane on record. The name did not get retired despite the achievement and impacts on Socorro Island however. It nearly made landfall there and destroyed infrastructure without killing anyone fortunately.This year's Linda likely will not reach its predecessor's lofty status, but Category 4 cannot be ruled out here. This is clearly bombing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 14, 2021 Author Share Posted August 14, 2021 Taking into account parallax from satellite viewpoint, Clarion Island was entirely within Linda's eye earlier this morning. The last report from the there was a 106 mph gust reported within the NHC's 3AM MDT advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 14, 2021 Author Share Posted August 14, 2021 Major Hurricane Linda has reached Category 4 intensity at 130 mph per latest advisory. I don't expect it to get much stronger. It has likely maxed out its potential for now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 Linda is pure sat porn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 What a eye on Linda. Highly impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 17, 2021 Author Share Posted August 17, 2021 Linda's structure right now is legit weather porn. Annular large eye with a very thin-radius CDO. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Look at this beautiful eye on Linda. It is still hanging on, max winds 105mph. Hawaii is probably seeing some nice wave action from Linda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 22, 2021 Author Share Posted August 22, 2021 Grace's remnant surface trough is redeveloping into a cyclone SSE of Cabo San Lucas. Explosive convection is persistent and likely to regenerate a closed vortex at this rate. This will get a new name if reaches TS strength even though Grace is the source of the disturbance. Per WMO rules, a tropical system must remain classified between basins to retain its original name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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