CheeselandSkies Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 Large Day 2 Enhanced risk over IA/MN/WI is thread-worthy...maybe... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 14, 2021 Author Share Posted July 14, 2021 18Z HRRR is less interesting from a chase perspective (surprise surprise), but it suggest 3 rounds of storms might be possible for S. WI. One around 18-20Z, one 20-22Z (which is portrayed as the strongest despite seemingly insufficient recovery time after the first) and another around 04-06Z overnight into Thursday morning. This would certainly help with our precip deficit if nothing else. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 Am currently liking prospects for training t storms and possible multiple rounds over the Chi town area later this afternoon and evening.. At 2:30 a.m. CDT this a.m. t storms extend south through Nebraska almost to the KS line. Have a hunch the enhanced might be pulled a hair southward as well as we go through the day. Possibly one of the few and far between interesting days we have had this year coming up for our region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 15 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Am currently liking prospects for training t storms and possible multiple rounds over the Chi town area later this afternoon and evening.. At 2:30 a.m. CDT this a.m. t storms extend south through Nebraska almost to the KS line. Have a hunch the enhanced might be pulled a hair southward as well as we go through the day. Possibly one of the few and far between interesting days we have had this year coming up for our region. Haven't really paid much attention till I read this comment, I know it's not a crazy severe prospect day but I'll take any type of exciting weather honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 Storm evolution does depend on MCS to our west but I like good mid level lapse rates in our area southward for later today and night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 2 hours ago, Indystorm said: Am currently liking prospects for training t storms and possible multiple rounds over the Chi town area later this afternoon and evening.. At 2:30 a.m. CDT this a.m. t storms extend south through Nebraska almost to the KS line. Have a hunch the enhanced might be pulled a hair southward as well as we go through the day. Possibly one of the few and far between interesting days we have had this year coming up for our region. ride it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 Not surprisingly, the SPC’s NAM is much too far north and slow still with the current evolution, and is toss worthy.Luckily they have at least some sense of awareness, and have baby stepped south the past two outlook cycles.Edit: To add... The 6z NAM is about the size of Iowa off on the placement of the MCV currently. (And much too slow as I mentioned) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 14, 2021 Author Share Posted July 14, 2021 Rarely of late for a day with expected severe potential, we are starting off the morning with full sunshine... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 14, 2021 Author Share Posted July 14, 2021 Still near-full sunshine in Madison as of 0715. MD already out... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1279.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 14, 2021 Author Share Posted July 14, 2021 12Z HRRR has the current Iowa/MN stuff mostly dissipating/lifting into MN by early afternoon, with a somewhat cellular to broken line appearance to the later afternoon convection that develops in IA/WI. 06Z 3KM NAM OTOH shows us getting split. Develops a big MCS/bow echo in MN/northwestern WI in the early evening that largely dies out before it gets here in the early morning hours of Thursday, with more storms developing in northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 12Z HRRR has the current Iowa/MN stuff mostly dissipating/lifting into MN by early afternoon, with a somewhat cellular to broken line appearance to the later afternoon convection that develops in IA/WI. 06Z 3KM NAM OTOH shows us getting split. Develops a big MCS/bow echo in MN/northwestern WI in the early evening that largely dies out before it gets here in the early morning hours of Thursday, with more storms developing in northern IL. 6z 3km NAM isn’t handling things well.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 13 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: Large Day 2 Enhanced risk over IA/MN/WI is thread-worthy...maybe... “Event” of the season. Savor it if it happens. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 14, 2021 Author Share Posted July 14, 2021 Still full sunshine in Madison as of 0930, but it shouldn't be long before anvil debris from the line in Iowa starts to push in. Blue box up for far SW WI counties. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 14, 2021 Author Share Posted July 14, 2021 Numerous warnings in Iowa, first report of wind damage in from Story County at 0841. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 Turn right please 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 14, 2021 Author Share Posted July 14, 2021 14Z HRRR remains rather insistent that current IA complex should weaken and clear out paving the way for significant storms around peak heating hours, but it seems to be holding its own although all warnings have been allowed to expire for some time now. Anvil debris has overspread Madison with a milky overcast in place at 1030. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 Is there any point in chasing today, either in S Wisconsin or far NW IL/IA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 14, 2021 Author Share Posted July 14, 2021 14 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Is there any point in chasing today, either in S Wisconsin or far NW IL/IA? Hard to tell. Pretty clear now that HRRR was out to lunch with its depiction of the early round dying out by early afternoon, new warning approaching the Dubuque area. HRRR had the line much weaker at 17Z than reality even as recently as the 15Z run...and remained insistent on a significant supercell traversing NE Iowa around 22-23Z. We'll see if it holds steadfast despite the more vigorous early round/seeming lack of major clearing behind it on current satellite. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 Differential heating boundary draped north of I-80 in Iowa looks to be the focal point later. Mesoanalysis progs have large 0-3 km CAPE in that zone and there should be a fair amount of near-surface vort with backing surface winds in its vicinity. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 33 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Is there any point in chasing today, either in S Wisconsin or far NW IL/IA? IA is the only play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 14, 2021 Author Share Posted July 14, 2021 32 minutes ago, andyhb said: Differential heating boundary draped north of I-80 in Iowa looks to be the focal point later. Mesoanalysis progs have large 0-3 km CAPE in that zone and there should be a fair amount of near-surface vort with backing surface winds in its vicinity. Yeah, looking at roughly a Waterloo-Cedar Rapids-Marshaltown triangle. I can be there in about 3 1/2 hours. Problem is (1) I'm still at work, staying late since our meteorologist wants to be ready to go live should the line moving through our market area get warned, and (2) I'll have to drive through that line to get to the target area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 liking recent radar trends on southern end (this applies to us garden variety mood storm chasers) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Yes, and after they move through we should have some increased helicity and boundaries with time to recover before the next wave comes through later this evening and night. I also like our 70 plus dews here and to our sw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 This is looking pretty sauced up along residual OFB in IA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 1 minute ago, hlcater said: This is looking pretty sauced up along residual OFB in IA. Agree per SPC meso analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 14, 2021 Author Share Posted July 14, 2021 This is looking pretty sauced up along residual OFB in IA.Currently on the road, roughly where is OFB set up?Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 Possible watch incoming for ne Illinois per SPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 Mesoscale Discussion 1282 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021 Areas affected...southern Wisconsin...far northern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 141901Z - 142100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage or marginal hail will be possible over the next few hours, mainly focused over southern Wisconsin. DISCUSSION...An extensive line of storms currently stretches from central into southern WI, and across northwest IL where the line contains less trailing stratiform precipitation. Indications of strong to possible severe gusts are currently present with activity north of the IL border, and these storms may persist as the air mass remains favorably unstable despite high cloud cover. Around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE exists ahead of these storms, extending south into IL. Some uptick in storm intensity is possible as the line moves into slightly more unstable air. Aside from isolated damaging gusts, marginal hail may occur at times. Convective trends are currently being monitored for watch potential. ..Jewell/Bunting.. 07/14/2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 Tornado watch out for Iowa, 50/20 probs. Edit: 10% tor now in the 20z D1 update. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 Interesting that winds are backed se to the west of the initial line of storms and surface low has deepened slightly in se CO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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