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Sun July 11-Mon July 19 Pockets of FF/SVR and a modest heat wave


wdrag
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Good Wednesday morning all!

Not quite as much SVR yesterday as expected NJ,  and the extent of heavy rainfall was confined to NJ/PA and as other have noted BUST.  I want to tell you to predict 4-5" of rain in a 60 hour period via "convection" here in the northeast is exceedingly difficult. IT happened, as you know near PHL and if you don't know, here also in nw NJ.  I'll await CoCoRAHS and COOP data reports but there are via WXUNDERGROUND, spot 4-4.5"  as posted yesterday are probably accurate. I had 2.11 here in Wantage.  The point: The NWS excessive outlook I thought was reasonable and verified in nw NJ.  

Going forward: I may extend the headline through Sunday in a late day or Wednesday morning update?? Otherwise, it appears to me a modest heat wave is in the offing for interior NJ, and maybe EWR-LGA Thu-Sat; beginning Wed interior NJ; and maybe continuing from yesterday in the extreme southern part of our subforum. Slight chance HEAT Advisory needed Fri or Sat?

TSTMS:

Today: Potential for a cluster or two of showers/tstms in NJ early afternoon, certainly ne PA into interior se NYS and possibly extreme nw NJ between 5PM and 2AM when there is a good chance of spotty WAA SVR with TT rising to near 51, and wind fields at mid levels to 40 kt with INCREASING CAPE during the evening-overnight. Please see SPC D! SVR which is marginal our area and higher risk ne PA. 

Wed afternoon: Iso SVR possible in big CAPE, marginal wind situation. SPC Marginal risk. 

Thu-FrI: Beach Days-probably rainfall free and warm.

Sat: Big CAPE but marginal wind. Still with the approaching cool front, SVR possible.

Sunday: Do bands of heavy showers linger or dry out? Seems like the EC is slowing down and may need to extend this thread one day??  A little concerned about shortwave closing off across PA at 500 MB and below?? 

Next week: appears drier to me once the front passes south. 

So, LI and southern CT do not appear to br prime active weather til maybe this weekend, but NJ/ne PA/interior se NYS might have some interesting weather the next two afternoons/evening? and then looks pretty good there for this weekend

 

 

 

 

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16 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I want to tell you to predict 4-5" of rain in a 60 hour period via "convection" here in the northeast is exceedingly difficult.

The regional signal from the models was very strong for a high end flash flooding event. But pinpointing the exact location is always going to be a challenge before the convection forms. NYC was able to add a 2nd hourly rainfall record in under a week. So the most extreme portion of the event occurred near the southern edge of the outlook zone issued earlier in the day by the WPC. 
 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=519&yr=2021

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The regional signal from the models was very strong for a high end flash flooding event. But pinpointing the exact location is always going to be a challenge before the convection forms. NYC was able to add a 2nd hourly rainfall record in under a week. So the most extreme portion of the event occurred near the southern edge of the outlook zone issued earlier in the day by the WPC. 
 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=519&yr=2021

 

You're on top of it... I think this was a pretty good effort highlighting potential. PWAT/CAMS modeling bullseyes are constantly improving predictability.  IF the NNJ max occurred 20-30 mi further east ... headlines all over NYC news. Right now, they don't know how difficult it was out here last eve.  Folks pumping out basements this morning.  

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4 minutes ago, wdrag said:

You're on top of it... I think this was a pretty good effort highlighting potential. PWAT/CAMS modeling bullseyes are constantly improving predictability.  IF the NNJ max occurred 20-30 mi further east ... headlines all over NYC news. Right now, they don't know how difficult it was out here last eve.  Folks pumping out basements this morning.  

I agree. It only rained for maybe 5 mins late last night and thats it here in the city

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Routine til late Friday or this weekend and even then the non-routine may not be too bad??

So it rained in the northwest part of the forum early this morning, mainly nw of I95, (0.06 here in Wantage with a bit of distant lightning).

The SVR storms upstream in PA/NYS weakened into our forum after midnight.  Bad timing, despite a pulse of considerable instability-favorable winds aloft.  Just not enough for 1AM events. 

So those looking for big action- seems routine summer the next several days as I think a  3-5 day heat wave develops today (originally did not expect the 90-93F in NNJ Monday, instead expected it YDY).  I kind of think the heat should start this afternoon and peak probably Saturday when a Heat Advisory may be necessary. If the 06z/14 GFS is correct, this will not happen.  It's possible 90F will linger Sunday along the coast but this entire EC based scenario does not agree with the 06z/14 GFS which is faster-cooler this weekend.  I'll go with the EC through Saturday and unknown Sunday. 

SVR: Today- There will probably be a few svr North of I84 late this afternoon but wind fields are weakening and the TT is not favorable so this may go down as a nil event, especially NJ where Bigger CAPE exists but no obvious release driver.  As per SPC, monitor CT and if it goes fairly big there???? it may die out as weakening TSTMs e LI tonight????

Thursday: Continues to look rainfree-good beach day.

Friday: IF a line of scattered SVR storms in NYS holds together, it could drift down into the northern part of subforum at night. The faster GFS would favor this occurrence.

Saturday: Looks a little rough around here with big CAPE - 2" PW and might be FF material- winds aloft not too strong. Wet microburst afternoon depending on whether we're still in the warm sector?

Sunday: Depending on frontal position-there could be a load of rain. For now uncertain but would probably favor south of I80 in central NJ but very uncertain.  

Monitor the GGEM on big QPF...the 00z/14 cycle may not have it right but it is trying to tell us something pretty substantial is coming, as is the EC op QPF for this weekend. 

Did not add a day to the the original thread title since model differences are large this weekend.

 

 

 

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Not  much change in my thinking.  Focus Saturday or Fri eve-Sat night for one or two bands of FF/SVR. Enough wind aloft Saturday for SVR, plus instab via CAPE 2000J, TT near 50 look good, plus the CF in vicinity.  Could have a lead dying line of sct SVR Fri eve, but the bigger qpf and potential for FF is Saturday.  

Otherwise a routine modest short Heat Wave appears to in progress across NJ having started today.  HIndex Fri near 100 (day earlier than this mornings Sat EC expectation).   How warm Sat???

Keep monitoring GGEM...if it has 2+, we're good. If it shifts south, then subforum might miss.  Still worthy of monitoring.  Could be pretty big rainfall in  few spots (2-4"?)

Rest of this afternoon... Am looking north of I84 for strongest wind/rain through 8 PM. The cluster s of Morristown NJ at 335P may be producing small hail. 

Thursday---good beach day. Cant rule out an isolated late day shower but less chance than today, 

 

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