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Sun July 11-Mon July 19 Pockets of FF/SVR and a modest heat wave


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MD 1265 graphic

Mesoscale Discussion 1265
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1232 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of the Northeast

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 121732Z - 121900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A few multicell clusters of storms should emerge by mid to
   late afternoon, posing a threat for damaging winds. Trends will
   continue to be monitored for a possible severe thunderstorm watch.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows morning clearing over the
   region has allowed surface temperatures to warm into the mid to
   upper 80s F amid dew point temperatures in the low 70s F. This has
   led to somewhat rapid destabilization, with moderate instability
   (MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/kg) being analyzed on surface mesoanalysis.
   Scattered convection is already developing across portions of
   southern Pennsylvania, western Maryland, and northern Virginia, as
   convective temperatures are being eclipsed amid a weak cap. Despite
   these thermodynamic indices, mid-level lapse rates and deep-layer
   shear remains rather weak (20-25 kt effective bulk shear). Thus,
   storms may struggle to organize in the short-term.

   Additional storms should develop across the region as
   isolation/destabilization continues. This should lead to the
   development of a few multicell clusters of storms this afternoon.
   Should this occur, strong low-level lapse rates should support a
   damaging wind potential. Thus, convective trends will continue to be
   monitored for possible watch issuance this afternoon.
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42 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Trenton area getting hammered with heavy rain/storms. Flood Warning in effect for that area.

Yeah I just south of Trenton Bristol Borough/Croydon area of PA has a couple water rescues with individual stuck in  cars

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Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
514 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

NJC005-PAC017-101-130100-
/O.CON.KPHI.FF.W.0014.000000T0000Z-210713T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Burlington NJ-Bucks PA-Philadelphia PA-
514 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR BENSALEM, BRISTOL, FLORENCE
AND VICINITY...

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON, SOUTHEASTERN BUCKS, AND NORTHEASTERN
PHILADELPHIA COUNTIES...

At 514 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area. Between 4 and 7 inches of rain have
fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible in
the warned area. Flash flooding is already occurring.

This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Bensalem, Bristol, Florence and
vicinity. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER
GROUND NOW!

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER
         GROUND NOW! Life threatening flash flooding of low water
         crossings, small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets, and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Philadelphia, Bensalem, Willingboro, Florence, Burlington,
  Bristol, Riverside, Palmyra, Bordentown, Beverly, and Tullytown.

This includes the following highways...
	New Jersey Turnpike between exits 6 and 7A.
	Pennsylvania Turnpike between mile markers 350 and 359.
	Interstate 95 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 27 and 40.
	Interstate 295 in New Jersey between mile markers 48 and 57.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now! This is an extremely dangerous and
life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are
fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order.

&&
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A few thoughts then I'm off line til 9P.

Just had a brief deluge but no svr.  Wind turned East here in Wantage at 3P.

Just need to wait out everything through 4AM... consolidation dumps should occur along and south of backdoor...decent CAPE all night. 

 

Tuesday later at NIGHT!  : EC signal for supercell in WAA storms that occur toward 2-4A Wed as TT increases to near 50.

Wednesday: Completing my thoughts: Big CAPE may yield another chance of SVR late day??

Thursday: Beach - rain free day.

Friday: Big Cape but is it capped?

Saturday: Biggest Cape fcst this week on the 12z/12 EC... is there enough wind aloft. Maybe not but right now  I'll bet on SVR ahead of the cold front. BIG CAPE tends to yield wet microbursts. 

Challenging week!!

By the way, 90F heat made in into NNJ. When does it return?  More on that tomorrow morning. 

Gotta run.

 

Walt

2 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

storms are having a tough time getting going over nyc and burbs.

cooler easterly flow?  Give it time but most of the big dump may not occur til after dark. 

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17 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

storms are having a tough time getting going over nyc and burbs.

front moved further south quicker than forecast.  Upton noted this in their AFD that it was a possibility.    Those storms may morph into an area of heavy rain that gets some of us later.

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