Snowlover11 Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 not our area but already a storm over southeast pa moving very slowly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemwinder Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: It is. It's not even mid-July! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 Two areas of main focus today per the latest high res models. One over Central NJ and the other over the Hudson Valley, but model skill is poor with exact placement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 75 dewpoint yikes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 Mesoscale Discussion 1265 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 Areas affected...Portions of the Northeast Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 121732Z - 121900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A few multicell clusters of storms should emerge by mid to late afternoon, posing a threat for damaging winds. Trends will continue to be monitored for a possible severe thunderstorm watch. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows morning clearing over the region has allowed surface temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 80s F amid dew point temperatures in the low 70s F. This has led to somewhat rapid destabilization, with moderate instability (MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/kg) being analyzed on surface mesoanalysis. Scattered convection is already developing across portions of southern Pennsylvania, western Maryland, and northern Virginia, as convective temperatures are being eclipsed amid a weak cap. Despite these thermodynamic indices, mid-level lapse rates and deep-layer shear remains rather weak (20-25 kt effective bulk shear). Thus, storms may struggle to organize in the short-term. Additional storms should develop across the region as isolation/destabilization continues. This should lead to the development of a few multicell clusters of storms this afternoon. Should this occur, strong low-level lapse rates should support a damaging wind potential. Thus, convective trends will continue to be monitored for possible watch issuance this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 Trenton area getting hammered with heavy rain/storms. Flood Warning in effect for that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 1 hour ago, nycwinter said: 75 dewpoint yikes.. 87/77 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 Sun coming out now, 80/75 with a NE wind. Go a little more west and its 85 in the Park, 90 at EWR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 80/74 here in the muck, got up to 84 before when sun came out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 82 here, DP 73/RH 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 81/75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 42 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Trenton area getting hammered with heavy rain/storms. Flood Warning in effect for that area. Yeah I just south of Trenton Bristol Borough/Croydon area of PA has a couple water rescues with individual stuck in cars Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 What day is the best to go to the beach ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: What day is the best to go to the beach ? Thursday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 Nice downpour with huge raindrops has made to it South Old Bridge. Our area missed the rain last night but lawn and everything else is getting a good soaking now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 Watch up for the city south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 Getting dark here. Towers going up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 What the most severe thunderstorm watches issued in one month in NYC? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 35 minutes ago, MJO812 said: What day is the best to go to the beach ? january you don't have to worry about crowds.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 31 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: What the most severe thunderstorm watches issued in one month in NYC? This many SPC watches of any kind in so many consecutive days haven’t happened since the outbreak sequence of May 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 Things really ramping up now, it should be an active next several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 Flash Flood Statement National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 514 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021 NJC005-PAC017-101-130100- /O.CON.KPHI.FF.W.0014.000000T0000Z-210713T0100Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Burlington NJ-Bucks PA-Philadelphia PA- 514 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR BENSALEM, BRISTOL, FLORENCE AND VICINITY... ...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON, SOUTHEASTERN BUCKS, AND NORTHEASTERN PHILADELPHIA COUNTIES... At 514 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 4 and 7 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is already occurring. This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Bensalem, Bristol, Florence and vicinity. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding caused by thunderstorms. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! Life threatening flash flooding of low water crossings, small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets, and underpasses. Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Philadelphia, Bensalem, Willingboro, Florence, Burlington, Bristol, Riverside, Palmyra, Bordentown, Beverly, and Tullytown. This includes the following highways... New Jersey Turnpike between exits 6 and 7A. Pennsylvania Turnpike between mile markers 350 and 359. Interstate 95 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 27 and 40. Interstate 295 in New Jersey between mile markers 48 and 57. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Move to higher ground now! This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order. && 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 storms are having a tough time getting going over nyc and burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 12, 2021 Author Share Posted July 12, 2021 A few thoughts then I'm off line til 9P. Just had a brief deluge but no svr. Wind turned East here in Wantage at 3P. Just need to wait out everything through 4AM... consolidation dumps should occur along and south of backdoor...decent CAPE all night. Tuesday later at NIGHT! : EC signal for supercell in WAA storms that occur toward 2-4A Wed as TT increases to near 50. Wednesday: Completing my thoughts: Big CAPE may yield another chance of SVR late day?? Thursday: Beach - rain free day. Friday: Big Cape but is it capped? Saturday: Biggest Cape fcst this week on the 12z/12 EC... is there enough wind aloft. Maybe not but right now I'll bet on SVR ahead of the cold front. BIG CAPE tends to yield wet microbursts. Challenging week!! By the way, 90F heat made in into NNJ. When does it return? More on that tomorrow morning. Gotta run. Walt 2 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: storms are having a tough time getting going over nyc and burbs. cooler easterly flow? Give it time but most of the big dump may not occur til after dark. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said: storms are having a tough time getting going over nyc and burbs. Storms ending up further south though some storms popping up further north. Absolute deluge to our SW near PA/NJ border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 12, 2021 Author Share Posted July 12, 2021 Thanks for keeping up with this... attending son's softball game soon, unless I see storms head for Hackettstown by 630. Walt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 17 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: storms are having a tough time getting going over nyc and burbs. front moved further south quicker than forecast. Upton noted this in their AFD that it was a possibility. Those storms may morph into an area of heavy rain that gets some of us later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 northeast philly southwest nj is getting wrecked. 4-7” of rain. with atleast another 1-3” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 Just now, Snowlover11 said: northeast philly southwest nj is getting wrecked. 4-7” of rain. with atleast another 1-3” kind of glad that missed us-would have been a disaster after the last week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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