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Hurricane/Tropical Storm Elsa


SnowenOutThere
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11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Dale City storm is rotating, as far as I can tell. Wouldn’t be shocked to have that get a TOR.

nothing special, but these all seem to have that shrimpy tropical look.

Definitely something although the rotation is not too tight… yet.

9DAD2D4D-1650-42F4-B181-F57DDC050DB4.jpeg

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9 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

More thunder than raindrops here.  0.02”
 

The short range modeling differences are amazing between most of the models and the HWRF.  The HRRR expects the NW side of the larger precip shield to slowly disintegrate.  We’ll see.

I could be wrong, but the core of the rain already seems to be compacting and lessening in size and intensity.

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9 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

More thunder than raindrops here.  0.02”
 

The short range modeling differences are amazing between most of the models and the HWRF.  The HRRR expects the NW side of the larger precip shield to slowly disintegrate.  We’ll see.

Pretty much the same here. There are some more cells firing a little to our south, so hopefully they stick around for a while.

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11 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

More thunder than raindrops here.  0.02”
 

The short range modeling differences are amazing between most of the models and the HWRF.  The HRRR expects the NW side of the larger precip shield to slowly disintegrate.  We’ll see.

HRRR has my yard on the NW edge. It could be right, I suppose.

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
236 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Baltimore City in northern Maryland...
  Northwestern Anne Arundel County in central Maryland...
  Southeastern Howard County in central Maryland...
  Southeastern Baltimore County in northern Maryland...
  Northeastern Prince Georges County in central Maryland...

* Until 315 PM EDT.

* At 236 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Odenton, or
  near Crofton, moving northeast at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches
           to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as
           damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by
           downed trees. Localized power outages are possible.
           Unsecured light objects may become projectiles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Baltimore, Columbia, Bowie, Severn, Pikesville, Crofton, Middle
  River, Greenbelt, Elkridge, Riviera Beach, Baltimore-Washington
  Airport, Sparrows Point, Back River, Glen Burnie, Dundalk, Towson,
  Catonsville, Essex, Woodlawn and Severna Park.
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Flood Watch
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
218 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021

DCZ001-090230-
/O.EXA.KLWX.FF.A.0005.210708T2100Z-210709T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
District of Columbia-
Including the cities of Washington
218 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has expanded the

* Flash Flood Watch to include a portion of DC, including the
  following : District of Columbia.

* Through Friday morning.

* Thunderstorms have been moving across the DC metro area over the
  past hour, and look to continue doing so for the next couple of
  hours. Additionally, steadier rainfall may arrive this evening
  into tonight in association with Tropical Storm Elsa, which could
  lead to some isolated instances of flash flooding, especially in
  poor drainage areas.


* Moderate to heavy rainfall over a short time period may cause
  streams and creeks to quickly rise out of their banks, potentially
  leading to instances of flash flooding, especially in urban and
  poor drainage areas.
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9 minutes ago, H2O said:

Apparently that storm NA1 posted dropped some serious rain and lots of thunder at home.  My kid at a friends house lost power too

I'm near the Wilson Bridge so didn't get as much rain, but I can testify it was a bit noisy for a while.

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11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

HRRR has my yard on the NW edge. It could be right, I suppose.

The HRRR gives me nada as the Virginia convection lifts north and the convection closer to the storm stays east.  The high res models are certainly different.  the 12z HIRES nam misses me to the south and east.  I guess radar will let us know which model grouping is correct.  I don't have much of a feel for the system as I don't trust the HRRR.  I do find the hires NAM discouraging however. 

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All the headlines here- Tropical storm warning, FF Watch, and a Tornado Watch just to my south. It would be comical if I end up with a few showers or some drizzle lol. Grass is already on its way to hell, so a period of moderate rain isn't super exciting anyway.

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