Hurricane/Tropical Storm Elsa

[PrinceFrederickWx]

There’s a good chance this will be my 3rd July in the last four years with a double-digit monthly rainfall total.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

Tropical storm warning for Calvert and St. Mary’s.

[WxWatcher007]

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
1100 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021

Doppler radar and surface observations indicate that Elsa is
maintaining its intensity.  However, these winds aren't close to
the center but, rather, in a strong band of convection in the 
eastern semicircle of the storm.  The current wind speed is set to 
40 kt in accordance with an earlier sustained wind report of 38 kt, 
and radar velocities reduced to the surface that would support at 
least 40 kt.

Some weakening is expected overnight while a significant portion of 
Elsa's circulation remains over land.  However by late Thursday, 
more of the storm will be moving over water, and a fair number 
of the models suggest re-intensification could take place.
It is a little puzzling why the ECMWF and UKMET models, however,
are showing a strengthening tropical storm close to the
mid-Atlantic states, especially without a significant trough 
interaction or warm waters.  I'm getting some deja vu in this case 
after working Claudette from a few weeks ago, with those same 
models also over-intensifying that storm.  The GFS has been 
relatively consistent in showing only a small intensification of 
Elsa, and the NHC forecast will continue to be closer to that 
model's relatively weaker solution.  

The storm has turned north-northeastward tonight and is moving a
little faster, about 14 kt.  Elsa should move northeastward at an
increasing forward speed during the next few days as it becomes
embedded within fast southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude
trough.  No significant changes were made to the previous track
forecast since guidance remains in good agreement.  Elsa is likely
to become absorbed north of Newfoundland by another extratropical 
low by day 4.

There is greater confidence tonight that some portion of North 
Carolina and the mid-Atlantic coast will receive 
tropical-storm force-winds, so the Tropical Storm Watch has been 
upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning in those areas.  Areas to the 
north remain less certain, and remain under a Tropical Storm Watch.


Key Messages:

1. As Elsa moves across southeastern Georgia into the Lowcountry of 
South Carolina tonight, heavy rainfall may result in considerable 
flash, urban, and minor river flooding.  Heavy rainfall, from North 
Carolina across the mid-Atlantic and into New England Thursday and 
Friday, could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coasts of Georgia and South Carolina tonight.  Tropical storm
conditions are also expected along the coasts of North Carolina on 
Thursday and the mid-Atlantic by Thursday night.  Tropical storm 
conditions are possible in the southern New England states 
and New York by Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 32.1N  82.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 12H  08/1200Z 34.1N  80.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  09/0000Z 37.1N  77.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  09/1200Z 40.4N  72.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  10/0000Z 44.5N  67.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  10/1200Z 49.0N  60.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  11/0000Z 54.0N  50.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GFS: west of Bay minimal rain.

[osfan24]

GFS may have been correct all along. It was probably a little too far east, but not by much, and the intensity always seemed to be right. The Euro intensity was a total joke and it's now started shifting back east and looks like a swing and a miss for us around 95.

[CAPE]

27 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

GFS may have been correct all along. It was probably a little too far east, but not by much, and the intensity always seemed to be right. The Euro intensity was a total joke and it's now started shifting back east and looks like a swing and a miss for us around 95.

You sure the GFS is going to be correct with the sharp cutoff? There has been variability in its track and intensity over the last few days. 

[osfan24]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

You sure the GFS is going to be correct with the sharp cutoff? There has been variability in its track and intensity over the last few days. 

The cutoff probably won't be quite that sharp, but it seems like the general idea has been far more correct than the Euro. The Euro cutoff doesn't look THAT much different at this point.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

The cutoff probably won't be quite that sharp, but it seems like the general idea has been far more correct than the Euro. The Euro cutoff doesn't look THAT much different at this point.

Well before you bash the Euro, go to TT and check the GFS over the past 4-5 cycles. Hardly stellar from run to run. One of the runs had a tenth or less for most of the eastern shore.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EURO.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

1 hour ago, osfan24 said:

GFS may have been correct all along. It was probably a little too far east, but not by much, and the intensity always seemed to be right. The Euro intensity was a total joke and it's now started shifting back east and looks like a swing and a miss for us around 95.

The GFS has flip flopped all the time- the 0z dumped a foot of rain on Calvert and Anne Arundel. 

[Weather Will]

To my non expert eye, GFS did an above average job with Elsa…from tracking it along the west coast of Florida and generally keeping the heavier rains east of the Bay.

[WxWatcher007]

29 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

To my non expert eye, GFS did an above average job with Elsa…from tracking it along the west coast of Florida and generally keeping the heavier rains east of the Bay.

Not sure how it’ll verify in this region but it did an excellent job for the most part further south. Remember the euro and ensembles tried shredding it in the western Atlantic and was totally wrong.

Euro did pick up on the strengthening off Florida first but was too aggressive there too. 

[WeatherShak]

Kill Devil Hills




.

[Vice-Regent]

Elsa never bothered me anyway. This is good for you because Frozen was an incredible film.

[WxWatcher007]

Elsa is produced TS conditions along the coast in every state so far, so I don't see a reason why it wouldn't in the Mid-Atlantic.

Rainfall is always tricky with these when you're on the edge of a tropical system, but the coastal sections should cash in. HWRF is the best case scenario for those inland that want rain. 

 

 

 

 

 

[George BM]

I just hope that those of us, especially west of I-95 can cash in on a south to north moving band of heavy rain/thunderstorms this afternoon with gusty winds. There should be moderate CAPE ahead of the cloud/rain shield given higher low-level moisture content and limited sunshine developing across Virginia. It would at least seem tropical for a bit.

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, George BM said:

I just hope that those of us, especially west of I-95 can cash in on a south to north moving band of heavy rain/thunderstorms this afternoon with gusty winds. There should be moderate CAPE ahead of the cloud/rain shield given higher low-level moisture content and limited sunshine developing across Virginia. It would at least seem tropical for a bit.

Some of the meso/hurricane guidance still depicts a favorable setup for quick spin up tornadoes across Delmarva and lower Southern Maryland tonight. 

[WxWatcher007]

8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Some of the meso/hurricane guidance still depicts a favorable setup for quick spin up tornadoes across Delmarva and lower Southern Maryland tonight. 

Totally agree with the idea that the setup is favorable out there.

[osfan24]

Radar would make you believe the rain is heading well west of where models have it. Radar hallucination time.

[WinterWxLuvr]

The most fascinating thing with tropical systems for me is the backside cutoff. I remember with Fran I got zero rain where I lived but 20 miles east of me got 6”. I think this typically happens with the stronger systems and usually soon after landfall. This one is fairly sharp on the back

[stormy]

33 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Radar would make you believe the rain is heading well west of where models have it. Radar hallucination time.

Real time radar depiction over southwest Virginia gives the 06z ECM,& HWRF the greatest accuracy.  The GFS, GEM and both NAM's are out to lunch.

[NorthArlington101]

HWRF is a fantastic model, IMO. It's had some absolutely uncanny perfect results when it comes to TC development/strength. Feel like it may be a little aggressive around here but I'm hoping I'm wrong.

[frd]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

HWRF is a fantastic model, IMO. It's had some absolutely uncanny perfect results when it comes to TC development/strength. Feel like it may be a little aggressive around here but I'm hoping I'm wrong.

It certainly has it's share of victories over other models.   

[Eskimo Joe]

This is totally not a weenie post, but so far there's some decent stuff firing over the I-81 corridor and there's several tornado warnings in NE North Carolina. I wonder if the western edge of the precip shield ends up being a tad further west and more robust than what the globals are showing.

[nw baltimore wx]

7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

This is totally not a weenie post, but so far there's some decent stuff firing over the I-81 corridor and there's several tornado warnings in NE North Carolina. I wonder if the western edge of the precip shield ends up being a tad further west and more robust than what the globals are showing.

Radar looks good but I won’t believe until lwx overreacts and extends the watches west.

[TSG]

First band racing North just crossed through Charlottesville. Elsa has arrived!!

[CAPE]

LWX does mention the storms out to the west ahead of Elsa/Else in their AFD..

Ahead of Elsa, hi-res guidance continues to pick up on some spotty showers and thunderstorms out ahead of Elsa. These primarily seem to be west of the Blue Ridge and then continuing into northern MD, before pushing off to the north. Given the approaching upper trough, and of course Elsa as well, could see a few damaging wind gusts in any storms this afternoon. Instability won`t be nearly what we have seen in recent days, but looks to be in the 1000-1500 range given the forecast amounts from the 12z IAD sounding. Any storms should quickly dissipate as Else inches closer and subsidence around the periphery builds into the region. By this point though, Else will become the primary focus, as rain pushes into southern Maryland early this evening.

[SnowenOutThere]

Man I miss tracking winter weather but this is the next best thing. The fact this thread has three pages shows how desperate we are all to track something, it is fun though. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Some good outer bands (I guess that’s what they are) starting to fire one already severe warned. 

[North Balti Zen]

Quote

Man I miss tracking winter weather but this is the next best thing. The fact this thread has three pages shows how desperate we are all to track something, it is fun though. 

 

It's similar, as I am hoping for a deluge in this case (as I hope for snow in the winter)  so I can mutter under my breath "suck it Weather Will and your maps of sadness"