Paleocene Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Well, hopefully the weakest trees/limbs already got cleaned out by those storms last week? Either way, hoping for some gentle deform band action here in lower moco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 11pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 2am Fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 5am Fri. Surface; total precip 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Worst winds east of Bay hopefully eastern shore folks are preparing…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Worst winds east of Bay hopefully eastern shore folks are preparing…. Is the Track west of the 6z euro run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 12z Fri, 995mb off ACY. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 26 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Is the Track west of the 6z euro run? No, just a smidge east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 57 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Worst winds east of Bay hopefully eastern shore folks are preparing…. Basically confined to SE VA. Gusts to 40 on the lower MD Eastern shore and S DE are not a big deal. I am sure I'll manage with the 22 mph gusts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Flash Flood Watches along the bay. If I get what the euro is advertising, I would be shocked. Over/under for me is .40” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Yikes. That’s actually not good for the family beach place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, H2O said: Yikes. That’s actually not good for the family beach place. You really should head down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: You really should head down. I can only hope that it will be a quick hitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Latest AFD From Mount Holly on Elsa- Overview: Tropical Storm Elsa will move over, or just east of our area Thursday night into Friday morning, with additional storms possible Friday afternoon ahead of a cold front. A brief break in active weather is expected on Saturday behind the front. Details: Guidance has continued to shift slightly west with the track of Elsa, with the consensus track now taking the low over portions of Delmarva and then into NJ Thursday night into Friday morning. Given this shift in track, the threat to our area has increased and thus a tropical storm watch is in effect for coastal NJ, southern Delmarva and adjacent marine zones. Regarding impacts, much will still depend upon the exact track and structure of the system when it reaches the area. Most of the TC phase-space diagrams would indicate the system will likely be in at least the early stages of ET by the time it reaches the Mid-Atlantic. Consequently we could begin to see some of the typical structural changes that accompany ET, including a more asymmetric wind field, and the heaviest rain axis shifting just left of center. This naturally complicates the forecast, however given the current track would expect that Tropical Storm force winds would largely be confined to the immediate NJ/DE coasts (and adjacent waters), with the heaviest rainfall largely focused along I-95 and points SE. That being said, any further westward shifts would bring stronger winds further inland and shift the heaviest rainfall axis further inland. Given the potential for 1-3 inches of precipitation (with locally higher amounts not out of the question), have elected to issue a Flash Flood Watch with the afternoon package... it currently encompasses the entire area, given the uncertainty in the spatial distribution of rainfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 18z HRRR is a scrape of 95. There is a northward moving spiral band-like line in the afternoon on Thursday that saves some from a shutout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 18z NAM barely has a drop of rain here lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: 18z NAM barely has a drop of rain here lol. I’m no tropical expert, but don’t think NAM and HRRR are the go-to guidance of choice. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I’m no tropical expert, but don’t think NAM and HRRR are the go-to guidance of choice. They aren’t much for winter either. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Whichever model shows the least weather around here is usually correct….although other than needed rains for my lawn, you can keep the winds, tornadoes, and flooding out to sea. WB 18Z 3K NAM did shift east from 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I’m no tropical expert, but don’t think NAM and HRRR are the go-to guidance of choice. lol no. All guidance must be considered though. And Elsa will be rapidly losing tropical characteristics as it approaches our latitude. What's the JMA got? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 The underrated ICON is rock steady with its solution. Almost identical to previous runs, but gets good precip a tad bit further NW. Solid hit for I-95 and east. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Great to see so much early activity in the thread Looks like a modest quick hitter. I’ve spent most of the day bisecting Elsa in FL and GA. Crazy driving and strong winds in the bands inland. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Great to see so much early activity in the thread Looks like a modest quick hitter. I’ve spent most of the day bisecting Elsa in FL and GA. Crazy driving and strong winds in the bands inland. Sounds fun! Looking forward your photos and vids. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 3 hours ago, Weather Will said: Worst winds east of Bay hopefully eastern shore folks are preparing…. Looks like maybe some storm surge for the southern eastern shore! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 HH GFS a bit further NW and stronger/more consolidated. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 1 hour ago, CAPE said: lol no. All guidance must be considered though. And Elsa will be rapidly losing tropical characteristics as it approaches our latitude. What's the JMA got? 77 degrees with a southeaster passing over you is not very tropical right? Also at 5 AM in the morning. The myth refuses to die. Even the conservative NHC acknowledges that it will remain a tropical entity well into Gulf of Maine albeit just barely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: 77 degrees with a southeaster passing over you is not very tropical right? Also at 5 AM in the morning. The myth refuses to die. Even the conservative NHC acknowledges that it will remain a tropical entity well into Gulf of Maine albeit just barely. It will have been over land for quite a stretch before it arrives at our latitude, so it likely will start the transition to ET. Could regenerate again when/if it emerges offshore of the DE/NJ coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: It will have been over land for quite a stretch before it arrives at our latitude, so it likely will start the transition to ET. Could regenerate again when/if it emerges offshore of the DE/NJ coast. Maybe not transition just lose a bit of steam. I think this system is fascinating going to be one for the memory bank but it's dangerous in many regards. The main threat is not even surge or winds but tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 WB 18Z HMON still a hit DC eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 WB 18Z EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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