SnowenOutThere Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Because why not? Discussion and observations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted July 7, 2021 Author Share Posted July 7, 2021 Thought I would make a thread with the Gfs and some of the hurricane models shifting west with the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 I’d expect TS watches to go up for other coastal areas north of VA Beach sometime today. URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 544 AM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021 ANZ632>634-638-652-654-656-658-071745- /O.NEW.KAKQ.TR.A.1005.210707T0944Z-000000T0000Z/ Chesapeake Bay from New Point Comfort to Little Creek VA- Currituck Sound- Chesapeake Bay from Little Creek VA to Cape Henry VA including the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel- James River from James River Bridge to Hampton Roads Bridge- Tunnel- Coastal waters from Chincoteague to Parramore Island VA out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Parramore Island to Cape Charles Light VA out 20 nm-Coastal Waters from Cape Charles Light to Virginia- North Carolina border out to 20 nm- Coastal waters from NC VA border to Currituck Beach Light NC out 20 nm- 544 AM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT... * WHAT...For the Atlantic waters and the Currituck Sound, south to southeast winds winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt, becoming southwest. For the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River, south to southeast winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, becoming southwest. Waves 2 to 4 feet in the James River, 2 to 3 feet in the Currituck Sound, 3 to 6 feet in the lower Bay, and 6 to 9 feet in the Atlantic Ocean. * WHERE...The Atlantic coastal waters from Chincoteague to Currituck Beach Light NC, the Chesapeake Bay from New Pt Comfort to Cape Henry, the James River from the James River Bridge to the Hampton Roads Bridge Tunnel, the Currituck Sound. * WHEN...Thursday through Thursday night. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 39 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Lucky. HWRF, Euro, and GGEM still give me significant rain. Huggin’. Tornado risk here with this track. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 official track did shift west and latest 0z runs for the globals shifted a good bit west too. Trend? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, H2O said: official track did shift west and latest 0z runs for the globals shifted a good bit west too. Trend? Yeah this is my official adjustment. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Sharpie adjustments to NHC forecasts are completely legit. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Sharpie adjustments to NHC forecasts are completely legit. Maybe another tshirt will be made supporting LWX on their forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Sharpie adjustments to NHC forecasts are completely legit. There is precedent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 This would be a fun one to have stayed down at the beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted July 7, 2021 Author Share Posted July 7, 2021 I might be bad at forecasting but even I know that this is a very scary looking model run for areas around DC and northeast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 WB 6Z EURO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 16 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: I might be bad at forecasting but even I know that this is a very scary looking model run for areas around DC and northeast. Some of that is just how the HWRF depicts banding features in tropical cyclones. No doubt there could be an iso tor threat to the east of the track - but I'm not sure I'd classify it was "very scary" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 25 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: I might be bad at forecasting but even I know that this is a very scary looking model run for areas around DC and northeast. Excellent - I am down at our place at Colonial Beach this week and that track would seem to put the center of the storm pretty much right over top of us. That's a good bit west of the latest NHC track, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 1 hour ago, Kmlwx said: Some of that is just how the HWRF depicts banding features in tropical cyclones. No doubt there could be an iso tor threat to the east of the track - but I'm not sure I'd classify it was "very scary" The westward shift overnight is pure Joy. The HWRF, HMON, NAM 3k and GEM all give my area much needed very beneficial rainfall on Thursday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted July 7, 2021 Author Share Posted July 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, stormy said: The westward shift overnight is pure Joy. The HWRF, HMON, NAM 3k and GEM all give my area much needed very beneficial rainfall on Thursday. I do need the rain and I think a lot of the form does so lets hope we get something out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 NAM appears to be a just around 95 and east event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Tropical storm watch for Calvert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: Tropical storm watch for Calvert. Time to get gas for the gennie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Some of that is just how the HWRF depicts banding features in tropical cyclones. No doubt there could be an iso tor threat to the east of the track - but I'm not sure I'd classify it was "very scary" It is for weenies living in an alternate universe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 NHC issues Tropical Storm Watch for: Calvert, Caroline, Dorchester, Inland Worcester, Maryland Beaches, Queen Anne's, Somerset, St. Mary's, Talbot, Wicomico. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 GGEM bullseyes I95 for heavy rain. Hugging. GFS made a little move west, but still a miss west of the Bay. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 It will be interesting to see what the euro does. On average, I think it has generally been west of the GFS with the storm. Not sure whether that's a bias or it being better as I can't remember what it did last summer with tropical systems. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 39 minutes ago, usedtobe said: It will be interesting to see what the euro does. On average, I think it has generally been west of the GFS with the storm. Not sure whether that's a bias or it being better as I can't remember what it did last summer with tropical systems. I can't speak for the Euro, but the new version of the GFS that was implemented in March showed a notable right-of-track bias for TCs in retrospective hurricane season testing, especially for those moving north and then recurving. It has been slowly adjusting to the west with Elsa's track through the southeast and Mid-Atlantic. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 HWRF and HMON both continue major impacts to much of the LWX region. Pending the Euro, the GFS is on an island. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 HMON jogged east at 12Z compared to 6Z. Another 30 mile jog and it is east of the Bay with the precip shield. Glad this is not a snowstorm…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 WB Euro at 2pm Th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Through HR24, the 12z Euro appears to be west of it's 00z run. Next frame we'll know for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 5pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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