Winter 2021-22

[MillvilleWx]

There is too much volatility in long range forecasting due to the inherent chaos of atmospheric principles that bring us our ambient weather on a daily basis. There are also prognostications like teleconnections that are a main driver for cyclical patterns in North America, which are absolutely a driving force behind winter weather forecasting due to the addition of long wave amplitudes that accompany the cold/warm pushes from poleward moving airmasses. At a time like this, there's only takes on trends and comparing to previous cycles from years past to get a glimpse of the, "What might happen.." portion of long range, winter forecasting. There are too many variables to discern as to whether the season is prime for a drubbing or a dud. Until then, I wouldn't even sweat it and come back in the mid-fall time frame where some of the indications becoming clearer, but still a ways from solving any riddles on what might happen in the months ahead. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

There is too much volatility in long range forecasting due to the inherent chaos of atmospheric principles that bring us our ambient weather on a daily basis. There are also prognostications like teleconnections that are a main driver for cyclical patterns in North America, which are absolutely a driving force behind winter weather forecasting due to the addition of long wave amplitudes that accompany the cold/warm pushes from poleward moving airmasses. At a time like this, there's only takes on trends and comparing to previous cycles from years past to get a glimpse of the, "What might happen.." portion of long range, winter forecasting. Until then, there are too many variables to discern as to whether the season is prime for a drubbing or a dud. Until then, I wouldn't even sweat it and come back in the mid-fall time frame where some of the indications becoming clearer, but still a ways from solving any riddles on what might happen in the months ahead. 

For only 5 sentences, that’s an impressive post 

[MillvilleWx]

3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

For only 5 sentences, that’s an impressive post 

Thanks! I stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night 

[IronTy]

16 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I don’t think last year sucked by any standard 

Lol, you funny.  

[mattie g]

17 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I don’t think last year sucked by any standard 

Weather is an IMBY game, and last winter sucked IMBY.

[Heisy]

I always go by the opposite rule. If the majority of forecasters are going for a cold and snowy winter I expect it to be terrible and vice versa. 

[frd]

1 hour ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I always go by the opposite rule. If the majority of forecasters are going for a cold and snowy winter I expect it to be terrible and vice versa. 

Ah....................... the anti-concensus approach.  Recently during the past five winters that thinking has worked out rather well most of the times.

[Heisy]

20 hours ago, frd said:

Ah....................... the anti-concensus approach.  Recently during the past five winters that thinking has worked out rather well most of the times.

Well, Im talking about Philly Northward….  I don’t factor in DC because 9/10 times their winters suck regardless.

[StormchaserChuck!]

After 2 years +IO, +SSTs up to Japan in August

[snowman19]

On 8/24/2021 at 3:47 PM, WinterWxLuvr said:

I don’t think last year sucked by any standard 

It was a 3 week winter for the NYC metro area. 2/1 - 2/22 and that was all she wrote, over and done, nothing else after that in March or April. December had the one snowstorm mid month that was all melted in less than a week and it was in the 60’s by Christmas Eve. Nothing at all in January. Had it not been for the SSW which lead to the 3 week period of NAO blocking in February, that would have been one of the worst winters ever

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

It was a 3 week winter for the NYC metro area. 2/1 - 2/22 and that was all she wrote, over and done, nothing else after that in March or April. December had the one snowstorm mid month that was all melted in less than a week and it was in the 60’s by Christmas Eve. Nothing at all in January. Had it not been for the SSW which lead to the 3 week period of NAO blocking in February, that would have been one of the worst winters ever

Got it…so other then a big storm in December AND 3 weeks of storms in Feb. Just wondering, if you let me just eliminate the 3 best weeks plus one additional storm from every winter…how many would not be total sh!t?
 

[snowman19]

48 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Got it…so other then a big storm in December AND 3 weeks of storms in Feb. Just wondering, if you let me just eliminate the 3 best weeks plus one additional storm from every winter…how many would not be total sh!t?
 

Poopie pee pee

[WinterWxLuvr]

I can say this with an absolute certainty. Nobody in this forum cares if it ever snows in and around New York City. That’s not being snarky. It is the truth. Just as I’m betting nobody in NYC cares if it snows in my back yard. We have a NY forum. Why someone from there is posting here, if they aren’t a met, is baffling to me. I know I would have zero interest in reading what they think about the upcoming winter or their thoughts on last winter.

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Got it…so other then a big storm in December AND 3 weeks of storms in Feb. Just wondering, if you let me just eliminate the 3 best weeks plus one additional storm from every winter…how many would not be total sh!t?
 

Thank you

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Poopie pee pee

Quality post 

[uncle W]

On 8/27/2021 at 7:39 PM, psuhoffman said:

Quality post 

Most great winters have a great three week period and additional events..

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, uncle W said:

Most great winters have a great three week period and additional events..

1) he was refuting a post that last winter didn’t suck. No one claimed it was “great”. He was saying it sucked. 

2) the comment he was refuting was made about this region and he replied with sh!t about NYC. Irrelevant 

3) last winter did have a great 3 week period. And 1 other significant event. So maybe it was, what, 1 more event from your “great”threshold. Still my point was MOST winters if tut took away the best 3 week period AND one other event would suck. Not all. But most. 

4) he is a whole clown, you are a respected valuable poster, don’t die on that hill with him. 

[CAPE]

On 8/27/2021 at 5:04 PM, psuhoffman said:

Got it…so other then a big storm in December AND 3 weeks of storms in Feb. Just wondering, if you let me just eliminate the 3 best weeks plus one additional storm from every winter…how many would not be total sh!t?
 

Always have to factor in the yard to yard disparity, and (unrealistic) expectations with some of the weenie posts. I don't expect anymore than 2-3 weeks of legit winter here. The December storm was cold rain, and so winter didn't 'arrive' until late Jan. But, there was in fact a solid 3 week period where it looked and felt like winter, despite not having any real cold around. The negative AO/NAO combined with peak climo for winter weather got it done. Without the favorable HL pattern, the Pac puke would likely have completely overwhelmed and I might have ended up with something more like the previous winter, instead of hitting median snowfall.

[psuhoffman]

On 8/29/2021 at 6:01 AM, CAPE said:

Always have to factor in the yard to yard disparity, and (unrealistic) expectations with some of the weenie posts. I don't expect anymore than 2-3 weeks of legit winter here. The December storm was cold rain, and so winter didn't 'arrive' until late Jan. But, there was in fact a solid 3 week period where it looked and felt like winter, despite not having any real cold around. The negative AO/NAO combined with peak climo for winter weather got it done. Without the favorable HL pattern, the Pac puke would likely have completely overwhelmed and I might have ended up with something more like the previous winter, instead of hitting median snowfall.

His reply made me regret having replied at all. He is a clown. He can scream into the void next time. 

[Huffwx]

NYC Central Park has a 40 inch winter and someone complains about it-- Wow. 

[CAPE]

Both the latest CanSIPS and CFS have a pretty classic crapola Nina look for the winter months. Ofc none of these climate models are very good, but based on historic Nina climo and recent history, tough to bet against a predominant PAC ridge.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

Both the latest CanSIPS and CFS have a pretty classic crapola Nina look for the winter months. Ofc none of these climate models are very good, but based on historic Nina climo and recent history, tough to bet against a predominant PAC ridge.

And folks tell me there's no magic formula for prediction...lol Perhaps not for the other ENSO states, but for Nina? I mean 95-96 is the only outlier! I mean I guess there's enough chaos for something randomore to happen, but...ninas seem to be the most predictable around here...

[mattie g]

4 hours ago, CAPE said:

Both the latest CanSIPS and CFS have a pretty classic crapola Nina look for the winter months. Ofc none of these climate models are very good, but based on historic Nina climo and recent history, tough to bet against a predominant PAC ridge.

And that's pretty much all that needs to be said, especially with a changing base state.

[WinterWxLuvr]

5 hours ago, CAPE said:

Both the latest CanSIPS and CFS have a pretty classic crapola Nina look for the winter months. Ofc none of these climate models are very good, but based on historic Nina climo and recent history, tough to bet against a predominant PAC ridge.

It will never snow deep again 

[CAPE]

Well that post got a decent haul. 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It will never snow deep again 

So much for "Im not trying to be harsh. I’m trying to help." You're clearly taking every effort to hit me over the head mercilessly.

[StormchaserChuck!]

The last few years of Sept 14th,

[StormchaserChuck!]

5 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And folks tell me there's no magic formula for prediction...lol Perhaps not for the other ENSO states, but for Nina? I mean 95-96 is the only outlier! I mean I guess there's enough chaos for something randomore to happen, but...ninas seem to be the most predictable around here...

A lot of people don't know this, but 95-96 was not a La Nina as per ENSO subsurface, 0.0.  Plus 90-91,91-92,92-93-93-94-94-95,97-98 were all +ENSO 7/8 years. 95-96 was +PNA. 

[thunderbolt]

46 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

A lot of people don't know this, but 95-96 was not a La Nina as per ENSO subsurface, 0.0.  Plus 90-91,91-92,92-93-93-94-94-95,97-98 were all +ENSO 7/8 years. 95-96 was +PNA. 

For this it was definitely a moderate  La Niña. 

El Niño and La Niña Years and Intensities Based on Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) Jan Null, CCM Updated thru May-Jun-Jul 2021
The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) has become the de-facto standard that NOAA uses for identifying El Niño (warm) and La Niña (cool) events in the tropical Pacific.  It is the running 3-month mean SST anomaly for the Niño 3.4 region (i.e., 5oN-5oS, 120o-170oW).  Events are defined as 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods at or above the +0.5o anomaly for warm (El Niño) events and at or below the -0.5 anomaly for cold (La Niña) events.  The threshold is further broken down into Weak (with a 0.5 to 0.9 SST anomaly), Moderate (1.0 to 1.4), Strong (1.5 to 1.9) and Very Strong (≥ 2.0) events.  For the purpose of this report for an event to be categorized as weak, moderate, strong or very strong it must have equaled or exceeded the threshold for at least 3 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods.
El Niño - 26 La Niña - 23 Weak - 11 Moderate - 7 Strong - 5 Very Strong - 3 Weak - 11 Moderate - 5 Strong - 7 1952-53 1951-52 1957-58 1982-83 1954-55 1955-56 1973-74 1953-54 1963-64 1965-66 1997-98 1964-65 1970-71 1975-76 1958-59 1968-69 1972-73 2015-16 1971-72 1995-96 1988-89 1969-70 1986-87 1987-88   1974-75 2011-12 1998-99 1976-77 1994-95 1991-92   1983-84 2020-21 1999-00 1977-78 2002-03     1984-85   2007-08 1979-80 2009-10     2000-01   2010-11 2004-05       2005-06     2006-07       2008-09     2014-15       2016-17     2018-19       2017-18     [Click HERE for full-size image of this graph]

[StormchaserChuck!]

We won't have Moderate La Nina without -PNA.