CAPE Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society 12 August 2021 Quote Compared to last month, forecasts from the IRI/CPC plume are generally cooler in the Niño-3.4 SST region during the fall and winter 2021-22 [Fig. 6]. Recent model runs from the NCEP CFSv2 and the North American Multi-Model Ensemble suggest the onset of a weak La Niña in the coming months, persisting through winter 2021-22. The forecaster consensus continues to favor these models, which is also supported by the noticeable decrease in the observed subsurface temperature anomalies this past month. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored for the remainder of summer (~60% chance in the July-September season), with La Niña possibly emerging during the August-October season and lasting through the 2021-22 winter (~70% chance during November-January; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 13, 2021 Share Posted August 13, 2021 57 minutes ago, CAPE said: EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society 12 August 2021 Sigh........ I may have to fast from following winter wx this winter--for my own mental health, lol I mean ninas are so predictable you can make a safe forecast, right? Little events, maybe ya get to median, big Miller B storms missing northeast! At least you can still get scenery snow in ninas...I mean all except 1995-96 played out the exact same way, did they not? I guess the only wild card would be...if things don't work the way they used to, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 On 8/12/2021 at 8:03 PM, Maestrobjwa said: Sigh........ I may have to fast from following winter wx this winter--for my own mental health, lol I mean ninas are so predictable you can make a safe forecast, right? Little events, maybe ya get to median, big Miller B storms missing northeast! At least you can still get scenery snow in ninas...I mean all except 1995-96 played out the exact same way, did they not? I guess the only wild card would be...if things don't work the way they used to, lol I thought La Niña is still good for northern mid Atlantic like NYC area, North Jersey ect, even moderate and strong ones. 1995-1996 and 2010-2011 were both La Niña winters and the La Niña was not weak in either year. Those were both really good winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, George001 said: I thought La Niña is still good for northern mid Atlantic like NYC area, North Jersey ect, even moderate and strong ones. 1995-1996 and 2010-2011 were both La Niña winters and the La Niña was not weak in either year. Those were both really good winters. Those places may be considered part of the geographical mid Atlantic, but this sub forum isn’t concerned with those areas. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 I’d be good if NYC never sees a flake of snow this winter. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Like it so far and more later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Ready for 33F Rain here! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 On 8/12/2021 at 7:05 PM, CAPE said: EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society 12 August 2021 A weak La Niña is looking to be pretty much a certainly now, however, it looks to be a classic “Modoki” La Niña, as opposed to an east-based or basin-wide Niña. As far as analogs, I don’t think there are many…..Modoki Niña following a moderate Niña, rapidly rising solar, negative QBO and a likely negative PDO…… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 https://climateimpactcompany.com/daily-feature-la-nina-modoki-risk-later-this-year-2/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 That Pac sst is hot poo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: That Pac sst is hot poo It’s not going to snow. The had already declared it so. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 12 hours ago, psuhoffman said: That Pac sst is hot poo Just IMO we are going the need the AO and NAO to really cooperate this winter. HM wrote an article a few years ago that showed La Niña/-QBO leads to a flat Aleutian ridge, as opposed to La Niña/+QBO leading to a poleward Aleutian ridge. Assuming a -QBO, -PDO, weak Modoki Niña following a moderate Niña, rapidly increasing solar….I would think the PAC side will most likely be garbage, but I guess stranger things have happened, still very, very early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 5 hours ago, psuhoffman said: That Pac sst is hot poo Hasn't it been that way since 2016? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 The Pac is going to be garbage? Oh, tell me something else new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 31 minutes ago, osfan24 said: The Pac is going to be garbage? Oh, tell me something else new. So tell me simply: if the pac will be bad every year from now on...would it only be during El niños that we can snow? Trying to get an idea of what setup we'd need (I'm sure whatever it is won't come as often as we'd like...but I'm still curious) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 32 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So tell me simply: if the pac will be bad every year from now on...would it only be during El niños that we can snow? Trying to get an idea of what setup we'd need (I'm sure whatever it is won't come as often as we'd like...but I'm still curious) I know you have been paying close attention the last several winters. We manage to suck at snow regardless of ENSO state or strength. But historically, above all, root for a -AO. That gives the best chance for colder/snowier for DC area. Didn't quite work out last winter- other stuff can overwhelm, and it may not be the indicator it once was going forward. But we just cant know yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 When we get about 200% of normal in a Nina it’s gonna fry the maestros circuits 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 36 minutes ago, CAPE said: I know you have been paying close attention the last several winters. We manage to suck at snow regardless of ENSO state or strength. But historically, above all, root for a -AO. That gives the best chance for colder/snowier for DC area. Didn't quite work out last winter- other stuff can overwhelm, and it may not be the indicator it once was going forward. But we just cant know yet. Disagree on one point of that--we still have not had the one ENSO state that has payed off the most: moderate nino. Think about it...we haven't had one since 2009-10! 2016 was strong and gave us out last blizzard, but outside of that? Haven't seen it! I'd like to see if that ENSO state will still work today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 26 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: When we get about 200% of normal in a Nina it’s gonna fry the maestros circuits C'mon...you can't tell me it wouldn't fry your circuits and everybody else's circuits too! I'd like to know who here legit wouldn't be surprised at that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 21 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Hasn't it been that way since 2016? Lol Yes but not that bad. We’ve had some ambiguity at times. A decent enough enso in 2019. At times a decent pdo sst. That projection was all wrong everywhere. But Imo the current issues with the pac aren’t being driven by local or regional sst anomalies. 15 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Disagree on one point of that--we still have not had the one ENSO state that has payed off the most: moderate nino. Think about it...we haven't had one since 2009-10! 2016 was strong and gave us out last blizzard, but outside of that? Haven't seen it! I'd like to see if that ENSO state will still work today. One problem with this. Since 1950 we’ve only had 7 moderate ninos. That’s less than 1 per decade. And they weren’t all good. 4/7 were. 1964, 1987, 2003, 2010. 1 of the other 3 was mediocre and the other 2 garbage. So…using those statistics if your theory is right DC can only get a snowy winter about 4 times in 72 years. Lol. If that’s true who gives a crap. Those are about the same odds Raleigh used to have as a snowy winter. Time to move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yes but not that bad. We’ve had some ambiguity at times. A decent enough enso in 2019. At times a decent pdo sst. That projection was all wrong everywhere. But Imo the current issues with the pac aren’t being driven by local or regional sst anomalies. One problem with this. Since 1950 we’ve only had 7 moderate ninos. That’s less than 1 per decade. And they weren’t all good. 4/7 were. 1964, 1987, 2003, 2010. 1 of the other 3 was mediocre and the other 2 garbage. So…using those statistics if your theory is right DC can only get a snowy winter about 4 times in 72 years. Lol. If that’s true who gives a crap. Those are about the same odds Raleigh used to have as a snowy winter. Time to move. Let me tack onto this. Let’s look at moderate ninas. 84-85 …. Borderline moderate Nina. Helluva winter in swva, don’t know about here 95-96 …. Borderline moderate Nina. Don’t even need to say anything here 10-11 …. Moderate Nina. Decent winter and missed by the slimmest of margins from being memorable. 20-22 …. Moderate Nina. Good winter by most people’s standards. Have there been times when a weak to moderate Nina was not good? Of course. Have ther been times when a moderate Nino was not good. Yes there have been. I just think this whole premise is whacked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Cool page with plot comparing ENSO and NAO combinations. https://www.weather.gov/lwx/ENSONAO_vs_Local_Winter_Snowfall Edit: I’ll add these ones too which only use ENSO, even if it’s a bit behind. El Niño : https://www.weather.gov/lwx/research_dcbalt_elnino La Niña: https://www.weather.gov/lwx/research_dcbalt_lanina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 5 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Let me tack onto this. Let’s look at moderate ninas. 84-85 …. Borderline moderate Nina. Helluva winter in swva, don’t know about here 95-96 …. Borderline moderate Nina. Don’t even need to say anything here 10-11 …. Moderate Nina. Decent winter and missed by the slimmest of margins from being memorable. 20-22 …. Moderate Nina. Good winter by most people’s standards. Have there been times when a weak to moderate Nina was not good? Of course. Have ther been times when a moderate Nino was not good. Yes there have been. I just think this whole premise is whacked. Wasnt 2010-2011 strong Nina not moderate? The oni peaked at -1.6, which is strong. The MEI peaked at -2.4 in the fall, going by that the 2010-2011 is a super Nina. Either way when taking both ONI and MEI into account it was a strong La Niña that was dominating the pattern for the entire winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 On 8/20/2021 at 8:35 AM, psuhoffman said: That Pac sst is hot poo It’s definitely not good with the blob of warmth in the pacific right off the west coast being too far west. I don’t like seeing that, but at least the rest of the pacific is more mixed of warm and cool anomalies rather than the entire thing being on fire like last year (other than the Enzo region). Correct me if I’m wrong, but wasn’t last years even worse? If I had to give it a rating on a 1-10 with 1 being terrible and 10 being great, I would give last years a 1.5, this years pacific a 4, and 2010-2011 a 9. How would you rate the pacific sst in terms of how favorable it is for winter in those 3 years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 5 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Let me tack onto this. Let’s look at moderate ninas. 84-85 …. Borderline moderate Nina. Helluva winter in swva, don’t know about here 95-96 …. Borderline moderate Nina. Don’t even need to say anything here 10-11 …. Moderate Nina. Decent winter and missed by the slimmest of margins from being memorable. 20-22 …. Moderate Nina. Good winter by most people’s standards. Have there been times when a weak to moderate Nina was not good? Of course. Have ther been times when a moderate Nino was not good. Yes there have been. I just think this whole premise is whacked. He seems to spend a lot of time trying to find patterns to explain the chaos. The best we can do with seasonal is perhaps pick out some drivers that can perhaps increase the odds slightly towards certain characteristics. Besides that you have to surrender to the chaos and roll with it. Or you will go crazy Imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: He seems to spend a lot of time trying to find patterns to explain the chaos. The best we can do with seasonal is perhaps pick out some drivers that can perhaps increase the odds slightly towards certain characteristics. Besides that you have to surrender to the chaos and roll with it. Or you will go crazy Imo. I do that because trying to guess what happens next and finding patterns in things to try to guess what happens is just in my nature. Not so easily satisfied just not knowing or having stuff have no rhyme or reason when it comes to desirable outcomes. Now I'm slowly coming around to the reality of chaos in weather, however...but I still would like to know if we see warning level snow again. Because if that is no longer possible I won't pay much attention to any seasonal anything or track any winter on this board. But we don't know yet...and I don't like that we do not know, lol It's like...I'd rather know now (and bemoan and vent out the disappointment over not seeing it again), instead of having to have wait to find out later. But again.....we simply can't know...yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 6 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Let me tack onto this. Let’s look at moderate ninas. 84-85 …. Borderline moderate Nina. Helluva winter in swva, don’t know about here 95-96 …. Borderline moderate Nina. Don’t even need to say anything here 10-11 …. Moderate Nina. Decent winter and missed by the slimmest of margins from being memorable. 20-22 …. Moderate Nina. Good winter by most people’s standards. Have there been times when a weak to moderate Nina was not good? Of course. Have ther been times when a moderate Nino was not good. Yes there have been. I just think this whole premise is whacked. Wait hang on...95-96 was the only above median snowfall in the bunch. The rest didn't work well here. (and what's 20-22? We ain't there yet, lol) 84-85 10.3 inches 10-11 14.4 inches (We lucked up with the 2010-11 late January storm...but missed Boxing day in the most nina way possible). More El niños than la ninas have worked. Some neutrals have worked. But the least likely enso state for decent snowfall has been la nina. 95-96 I think we can agree is an anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 2016-17 and 2017-18 were pretty good for eastern areas. Median to average snowfall, and above avg snowfall both years I believe for the immediate MA coast. One was a weak Nina I think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 14 minutes ago, CAPE said: 2016-17 and 2017-18 were pretty good for eastern areas. Median to average snowfall, and above avg snowfall both years I believe for the immediate MA coast. One was a weak Nina I think. That sounds about right. Yeah one of those years was the bomb cyclone, lol In Ninas, everything is too far east or northeast! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 On 8/20/2021 at 7:29 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: When we get about 200% of normal in a Nina it’s gonna fry the maestros circuits That looks like the inside of my computer in India after it took a +400V spike down the ground leg one evening. Needless to say it was toast... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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