Winter 2021-22

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

It’s simple…if the angular vector of the tropospheric velocity is in conjunction with the stratospheric vertical thickness values than the QBO is likely to synchronize with the PDO and the hemispheric energies are low because the solar flux is unstable. It snows in winter. 

I think you have that backwards. Lets see why Chuck thinks.

[StormchaserChuck!]

Yeah, I believe -0.5 to 0.5 is the best. The rest is data or something. 

[Prestige Worldwide]

Blocking this year again?

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’m a believer that neutral is the best for the types of winter that I want. From -0.5 to 0.5. More consistently wintry.

Neutral didn't work two years ago...lol (albeit the +AO rage party was probably the culprit). But are not moderate ninos the most consistent for above average snowfall? I think the only one in recent years that didn't work was 1991-92...and I heard that Pinatubo probably had something to do with that. But mod ninos seem to be once a decade, though...

[StormchaserChuck!]

Well I know QBO was going to be perfect if we were to have an El Nino. 14/14 chance it would be negative as of the April analogs. 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

42 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

Blocking this year again?

If that's the case I'm sorry the blocking has had to come under a Nina regime. I think if we had had it during 2018-19 that could've been better!

[StormchaserChuck!]

Subsurface is -4, surface is barely negative.. fwiw accelerating ENSO into the late year. 

fwiw

[CAPE]

On 7/6/2021 at 7:42 PM, CAPE said:

Might as well monitor the QBO, another index whose teleconnections to important stuff like HL blocking is nebulous at best. The experts tell us that when it trends negative heading into Fall and winter good things can happen. So, it went negative in June. Trend, friend.

QBO @ 30 mb

2021  10.19   8.92   9.75   5.25   0.31  -6.93

July 

-13.17

[WinterWxLuvr]

30 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Neutral didn't work two years ago...lol (albeit the +AO rage party was probably the culprit). But are not moderate ninos the most consistent for above average snowfall? I think the only one in recent years that didn't work was 1991-92...and I heard that Pinatubo probably had something to do with that. But mod ninos seem to be once a decade, though...

2 things. 1) nothing works every time 2) some of us don’t measure a winter only by above average snowfall. 
 

Moderate to strong anything can bring great or awful. I’ll sacrifice “huge” for consistent any day.

[Maestrobjwa]

15 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

2 things. 1) nothing works every time 2) some of us don’t measure a winter only by above average snowfall. 
 

Moderate to strong anything can bring great or awful. I’ll sacrifice “huge” for consistent any day.

1) Never said every time...just MOST of the time. Always exceptions (like last year's -AO/-NAO not working). Historically mod ninos have produced the most...followed by some neutrals.

2) I mean don't most of us here want above average...or even above median?......Just me? Lol I mean what's a good winter?

3) Moderate to Strong Nina...name one time outside of 1995-96 that was good! And name a mod nino that wasn't. Strong ninos are indeed hit or miss.

[Maestrobjwa]

Let's clear something up here: What is defined as a winter where things did "work?" Hitting the median? Having at least one warning level event? Several small events? Things that add up to average? Can you call a winter that failed to produce a 5" event one that "worked"?

To me if you can't register at lrast warning level event, that means things didn't weren't working THAT well at any point during the winter (unlike other winters where you could have at least one period that "worked"). As I've observed here the last 7 years, usually something up top was causing some frustration (a lot of "if we had more/less of this feature we could get more snow") Now sure you could make a case where a winter full of 1-2 inchers that added up to median "worked" for scenery purposes...so by that definition maybe others winters "worked" (like the la ninas of 2016-17 & 17-18 that did just enough to deplete snow days, lol). 

All that to say...it sounds kinda subjective, lol

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

1) Never said every time...just MOST of the time. Always exceptions (like last year's -AO/-NAO not working). Historically mod ninos have produced the most...followed by some neutrals.

2) I mean don't most of us here want above average...or even above median?......Just me? Lol I mean what's a good winter?

3) Moderate to Strong Nina...name one time outside of 1995-96 that was good! And name a mod nino that wasn't. Strong ninos are indeed hit or miss.

Well I was pretty clear about NEUTRAL lol. Not sure why mod/strong Nina was mentioned.

What is a good winter? Near average (or more) snow but consistently spread out with consistent cold. For instance, 2015-2016 gets a solid F rating from me. It was a 3 day winter. I’ll pass even if it is a 40” storm.

Werent 72-73, 76-77, 91-92, 94-95 mod ninos? Were they prolific snow producers? Pretty sure your recipe doesn’t work all the time. There’s no magic button. 
 

We probably would agree that we don’t want anything strong, in either direction. I thought last year was pretty good. It was a moderate Nina.

[SnowenOutThere]

Thought this was interesting if not sad. I use this website https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/dcasnow.pdf to find snow totals for past winters when people refence ones I am unfamiliar with. Though I looked at the data and back when the data begins in the late 19th century winters with below 10 inches of snow were rare one in six maybe. Now they are around half of our winters and having 5 winters with 10 inches of snow or more would be exceptional. Shows what we all know to be truth (hopefully) climate change is affecting our winters and each year it gets harder for snow to win out.  

[Maestrobjwa]

51 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Well I was pretty clear about NEUTRAL lol. Not sure why mod/strong Nina was mentioned.

Because you said "moderate to strong ANYTHING can bring great or awful"....which of course ain't the case with moderate/strong ninas which are mostly bad, lol

 

[Maestrobjwa]

54 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Werent 72-73, 76-77, 91-92, 94-95 mod ninos? Were they prolific snow producers? Pretty sure your recipe doesn’t work all the time. There’s no magic button. 

According to ggweather.com, 72-73 was a Strong Nino, 76-77 was weak, and 91-92 was strong. So you have 51-52 and 1994-95 in the last 60 years that didn't produce...but it appears the rest did. So it may not be 100%, but to me it's higher confidence enough to say it's worked much more than it hasn't!

[CAPE]

Evaluation of good/bad winter in this region is very location dependent too. Last winter was great for Mount PSU, when temps could barely find a way to sneak below freezing despite the best HL pattern we have had in ages. 1000 feet vs 500 feet made a huge difference in outcome. Lots of cold rain here, and the snow that fell was 31-33 degree slop. Best period was Feb as far is it feeling wintry, but had more sleet/ice than snow. I never recorded a temp under 20 here for the entire winter, even with snow/sleet cover, clear skies, long nights, and no wind. That strong/extended Pac jet ruled and the one time the pattern did allow for some Arctic air in our source region, it dumped in the west and central US- typical of a La Nina, although the way it evolved was also just bad luck with the retrograding block and the TPV being forced west. That could have been a much snowier period for the MA. Instead the trough was to our west with a ridge along the east coast, thus the sleety/icy period. Considering where I live, and shifting climo, last winter was decent. Counting the sleet, was right about median for snowfall here.

[IronTy]

I'm going to be buying some property (100ac or so) in Garrett county MD or thereabouts next year.  The whole purpose is to get some rugged mountain forest and build a small cabin on it so my wife and I have some place to go to enjoy cozy winter landscape.  

Any resources for which parts of western MD get the most snow?  Literally 75% of the reason for this property is so we can see a noreaster coming, bust out of SoMD and drive to the cabin, and enjoy the heavy snow by the wood stove and snowshoes.  

 

 

[CAPE]

34 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I'm going to be buying some property (100ac or so) in Garrett county MD or thereabouts next year.  The whole purpose is to get some rugged mountain forest and build a small cabin on it so my wife and I have some place to go to enjoy cozy winter landscape.  

Any resources for which parts of western MD get the most snow?  Literally 75% of the reason for this property is so we can see a noreaster coming, bust out of SoMD and drive to the cabin, and enjoy the heavy snow by the wood stove and snowshoes.  

 

 

Pretty much anywhere in the western highlands will average at least 80" of snow. If you want to max out on snowfall find a place on the ridge above 2500'.

[RDM]

23 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Pretty much anywhere in the western highlands will average at least 80" of snow. If you want to max out on snowfall find a place on the ridge above 2500'.

Really nice map.  Pretty amazing how the plateau rises just west of Cumberland, MD to the west.  Driven home to Ohio countless times over the last 35 years via Rt-68 to 79 and the climb westward out of Cumberland is always interesting in the winter time. The change in climate is stark.  

Closer to DC the fall line is clearly outlined as well.  Thanks for sharing...  

[CAPE]

Just now, RDM said:

Really nice map.  Pretty amazing how the plateau rises just west of Cumberland, MD to the west.  Driven home to Ohio countless times over the last 35 years via Rt-68 to 79 and the climb westward out of Cumberland is always interesting in the winter time. The change in climate is stark.  

Closer to DC the fall line is clearly outlined as well.  Thanks for sharing...  

Different world out there in winter for sure.

[RDM]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Different world out there in winter for sure.

Indeed.  As you approach Frostburg the whole scene can change, as does the flora.  Then closer to the exit for Deep Creek Lake at Keyers Ridge it can change again and in a big way.  Some of those ridge tops out there can be brutal in Winter.  Guess that's why the population density is so low up on the ridge tops.  The winds can be relentless.  Always thought it would be an interesting gig to be a snow-plow driver out there sometime.  Probably one of those things we only want to do once... 

 

[MillvilleWx]

10 hours ago, CAPE said:

Evaluation of good/bad winter in this region is very location dependent too. Last winter was great for Mount PSU, when temps could barely find a way to sneak below freezing despite the best HL pattern we have had in ages. 1000 feet vs 500 feet made a huge difference in outcome. Lots of cold rain here, and the snow that fell was 31-33 degree slop. Best period was Feb as far is it feeling wintry, but had more sleet/ice than snow. I never recorded a temp under 20 here for the entire winter, even with snow/sleet cover, clear skies, long nights, and no wind. That strong/extended Pac jet ruled and the one time the pattern did allow for some Arctic air in our source region, it dumped in the west and central US- typical of a La Nina, although the way it evolved was also just bad luck with the retrograding block and the TPV being forced west. That could have been a much snowier period for the MA. Instead the trough was to our west with a ridge along the east coast, thus the sleety/icy period. Considering where I live, and shifting climo, last winter was decent. Counting the sleet, was right about median for snowfall here.

I stole all your cold last year. This was probably the worst winter here in recorded history for impact and number of events. Our infrastructure is not built for it though, so I would like for it to not occur again. Me and the wife are likely gonna take a weekend up in Cloudcroft or Taos area in NM during the winter. Get our winter fill and enjoy the landscape. Drink some spiked ciders and hot cocoa. It'll be fun. Hopefully I can land back in the MA soon enough so I can enjoy some brutal winter misses and wins with y'all again 

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I stole all your cold last year. This was probably the worst winter here in recorded history for impact and number of events. Our infrastructure is not built for it though, so I would like for it to not occur again. Me and the wife are likely gonna take a weekend up in Cloudcroft or Taos area in NM during the winter. Get our winter fill and enjoy the landscape. Drink some spiked ciders and hot cocoa. It'll be fun. Hopefully I can land back in the MA soon enough so I can enjoy some brutal winter misses and wins with y'all again 

That'll be about a 20:1 ratio. 

[psuhoffman]

On 8/7/2021 at 1:54 PM, IronTy said:

I'm going to be buying some property (100ac or so) in Garrett county MD or thereabouts next year.  The whole purpose is to get some rugged mountain forest and build a small cabin on it so my wife and I have some place to go to enjoy cozy winter landscape.  

Any resources for which parts of western MD get the most snow?  Literally 75% of the reason for this property is so we can see a noreaster coming, bust out of SoMD and drive to the cabin, and enjoy the heavy snow by the wood stove and snowshoes.  

 

 

Elevation elevation elevation. Once you get west of the ridge just west of Frostburg, where you increase to about 2000’+ you will do pretty good in terms of snowfall. Northern Garrett county along 68 from that ridge west of Frostburg west sees about 80” averages. But you will still notice a difference between the towns like Grantsville and the ridges. 

If you really want to max out once you get to deep creek and south to Thomas/Davis along 219, you will notice a significant increase is snowfall over northern Garrett.  This is due to higher base plateau elevation.   That plateau maxes out down near Canaan WV where the valley floor is near 3,000’ with ridges just under 5,000’.  
 

The trade off though is distance.  The further away from 68 you go the more travel time you’re adding if you are coming across MD.  
 

Lastly a lot of the snow out there is actually from lake enhanced upslope and clippers.  If we’re in a cold pattern they can get a foot of snow from a clipper and the ensuing upslope flow behind it.  But it’s not the same as a coastal.  Many coastals only clip that area and the heavy precipitation stays further east.  That doesn’t mean they cannot get coastals.  They sometimes do and when we do get a east coast storm that takes an inside track they can get dumped.  But those aren’t storms we typically think of as coastals since their big rain storms here and those don’t account for the majority of their snow.  If you really just want to increase your chances of seeing a big nor’easter snowstorm getting a place in the eastern poconos PA or near highland lakes NJ might be better.  Those places don’t get as much snow overall as Garrett (about 65” avg) but they get a lot more from pure coastals and can get crushed by nor’easters.  You just have to decide what you’re looking for and what’s right for you.  I don’t mind giving you some advice regarding likely climo as a specific location if you PM me.  

 

[CAPE]

18 hours ago, CAPE said:

Pretty much anywhere in the western highlands will average at least 80" of snow. If you want to max out on snowfall find a place on the ridge above 2500'.

Short and sweet and to the point(with cool pic).

 

16 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Elevation elevation elevation. Once you get west of the ridge just west of Frostburg, where you increase to about 2000’+ you will do pretty good in terms of snowfall. Northern Garrett county along 68 from that ridge west of Frostburg west sees about 80” averages. But you will still notice a difference between the towns like Davis and the ridges. 

If you really want to max out once you get to deep creek and south to Thomas/Davis along 219, you will notice a significant increase is snowfall over northern Garrett.  This is due to higher base plateau elevation.   That plateau maxes out down near Canaan WV where the valley floor is near 3,000’ with ridges just under 5,000’.  
 

The trade off though is distance.  The further away from 68 you go the more travel time you’re adding if you are coming across MD.  
 

Lastly a lot of the snow out there is actually from lake enhanced upslope and clippers.  If we’re in a cold pattern they can get a foot of snow from a clipper and the ensuing upslope flow behind it.  But it’s not the same as a coastal.  Many coastals only clip that area and the heavy precipitation stays further east.  That doesn’t mean they cannot get coastals.  They sometimes do and when we do get a east coast storm that takes an inside track they can get dumped.  But those aren’t storms we typically think of as coastals since their big rain storms here and those don’t account for the majority of their snow.  If you really just want to increase your chances of seeing a big nor’easter snowstorm getting a place in the eastern poconos PA or near highland lakes NJ might be better.  Those places don’t get as much snow overall as Garrett (about 65” avg) but they get a lot more from pure coastals and can get crushed by nor’easters.  You just have to decide what you’re looking for and what’s right for you.  I don’t mind giving you some advice regarding likely climo as a specific location if you PM me.  

 

tl;dr 

[nj2va]

21 hours ago, IronTy said:

I'm going to be buying some property (100ac or so) in Garrett county MD or thereabouts next year.  The whole purpose is to get some rugged mountain forest and build a small cabin on it so my wife and I have some place to go to enjoy cozy winter landscape.  

Any resources for which parts of western MD get the most snow?  Literally 75% of the reason for this property is so we can see a noreaster coming, bust out of SoMD and drive to the cabin, and enjoy the heavy snow by the wood stove and snowshoes.  

 

 

You’ve got it covered by the answers already but we average 110” a year in McHenry which ranges in elevation from 2700-3100’ ASL. Down near Davis has higher elevation so does even better. But really, anywhere in the county especially the western part of it will be night/day from what you’re used to. It still amazes me as we cross into the county on 68, and it goes from 38 and rain in Frostburg to 28 and snow immediately. 
 

And the area actually doesn’t cash in on nor’easters unless it tracks over land and we get into higher QPF but where we cash in on nor’easters is 1) higher ratios 2) orographic enhancement and 3) upslope as the low exits to the NE out of the area and winds come out of the NW

[TimB]

As a lurker from Pittsburgh who enjoys Deep Creek (was there this past week and there were a couple sunny days that stayed in the 60s), the temperature difference is truly incredible. Agree that most of the snow is upslope, though as others have said, they do cash in much better than the cities do when bigger synoptic storms come through.
 

Another note: to some extent, we Pittsburghers do resent Mid-Atlantic folk buying up property in that area - back in the ‘90s that was our vacation destination before DC folk and the like discovered it and drove the prices through the roof. But that’s water under the bridge at this point, along with the NWS reassigning Garrett County from PBZ to LWX.

[IronTy]

On 8/7/2021 at 5:21 PM, psuhoffman said:

Elevation elevation elevation. Once you get west of the ridge just west of Frostburg, where you increase to about 2000’+ you will do pretty good in terms of snowfall. Northern Garrett county along 68 from that ridge west of Frostburg west sees about 80” averages. But you will still notice a difference between the towns like Davis and the ridges. 

If you really want to max out once you get to deep creek and south to Thomas/Davis along 219, you will notice a significant increase is snowfall over northern Garrett.  This is due to higher base plateau elevation.   That plateau maxes out down near Canaan WV where the valley floor is near 3,000’ with ridges just under 5,000’.  
 

The trade off though is distance.  The further away from 68 you go the more travel time you’re adding if you are coming across MD.  
 

Lastly a lot of the snow out there is actually from lake enhanced upslope and clippers.  If we’re in a cold pattern they can get a foot of snow from a clipper and the ensuing upslope flow behind it.  But it’s not the same as a coastal.  Many coastals only clip that area and the heavy precipitation stays further east.  That doesn’t mean they cannot get coastals.  They sometimes do and when we do get a east coast storm that takes an inside track they can get dumped.  But those aren’t storms we typically think of as coastals since their big rain storms here and those don’t account for the majority of their snow.  If you really just want to increase your chances of seeing a big nor’easter snowstorm getting a place in the eastern poconos PA or near highland lakes NJ might be better.  Those places don’t get as much snow overall as Garrett (about 65” avg) but they get a lot more from pure coastals and can get crushed by nor’easters.  You just have to decide what you’re looking for and what’s right for you.  I don’t mind giving you some advice regarding likely climo as a specific location if you PM me.  

 

Thanks @psuhoffman, this is a great reply.  My thoughts currently are somewhere between Accident to South near Deep Creek.  As you indicate I don't want to be too far from 68 because if it's too much hassle to drive to then it will just become a chore.  We do a lot or winter backpacking in places like the Dolly Sods and Otter Creek wildernesses in WV so want to be relatively near those, but at the same time be able to hit places like Swallow Falls in MD.  

As you and @nj2va correctly point out it is mostly upslope, my bad, which is fine with me.  Those sorts of snows are more reliable than the hopes of a big nor'easter.  My wife and I are both originally from Michigan and while we never had costal storms there (obviously) we really miss the array of moderate snows over the course of the winter that really added up.  Especially lake effect.  

It's a bit of a tradeoff for isolation vs. being near at least some sort of town.  We'll need to work on that.  I do want some rugged terrain with preferably some hemlock forest (before they're all gone) so somewhere ion the North side of a ridge would be good....but also need to be able to put in a driveway and utilities and it needs to be driveable!  Being near Deep Creek lake also wouldn't be bad assuming I could get somewhere that wasn't under threat of immediate development.  

I'm retiring at the end of the year so I have all next year to get the land picked out!  I'll hit you guys up as I start to circle in on locations as property comes on the market.  

 

Ty

 

 

 

 

 

[IronTy]

On 8/8/2021 at 12:13 PM, TimB84 said:

As a lurker from Pittsburgh who enjoys Deep Creek (was there this past week and there were a couple sunny days that stayed in the 60s), the temperature difference is truly incredible. Agree that most of the snow is upslope, though as others have said, they do cash in much better than the cities do when bigger synoptic storms come through.
 

Another note: to some extent, we Pittsburghers do resent Mid-Atlantic folk buying up property in that area - back in the ‘90s that was our vacation destination before DC folk and the like discovered it and drove the prices through the roof. But that’s water under the bridge at this point, along with the NWS reassigning Garrett County from PBZ to LWX.

No worries, I don't want to live on the lake.  We may not have much snow down here in Calvert but I can get more than my fix of water down here.  We're also looking at some coastal property along the Eastern shore after the cabin is in place.  My only criteria for that is I need to be able to get on a small motorboat here in Calvert and boat directly across the bay to a dock on the eastern shore property so we avoid having to drive up and over the bay bridge.  

[Eskimo Joe]

On 8/7/2021 at 1:54 PM, IronTy said:

I'm going to be buying some property (100ac or so) in Garrett county MD or thereabouts next year.  The whole purpose is to get some rugged mountain forest and build a small cabin on it so my wife and I have some place to go to enjoy cozy winter landscape.  

Any resources for which parts of western MD get the most snow?  Literally 75% of the reason for this property is so we can see a noreaster coming, bust out of SoMD and drive to the cabin, and enjoy the heavy snow by the wood stove and snowshoes.  

Western Maryland (Garrett, Allegheny, Washington counties) don't fare as well as other places with your classic Miller A nor'easter. IMO, if you are looking for a good spot to get a nor'easter, check out the Catoctin Mts. in Frederick County. Some places to look to are: Braddock Heights, Myersville, Wolksville, Sabillasville, Catoctin Furnace. You can easily get a cheap piece of property above 1,000 to 1,200 feet and there's a lot to do nearby outside of snow season.