mattie g Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 35 minutes ago, H2O said: If only everyone would do that. Absolutely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: You have to understand that we have a tendency to get the rug pulled out from underneath us at the last minute, sometimes as late as 12 to 24 hours prior to the event. It gets worse when folks from other forums come down to rub salt in the wounds and spike the ball in our face just to get a rise out of us. Snow is sacred here, you wait months for a 15 days window that produces maybe 8 to 12 hours of snow and then it's gone by sunset the next day. Yeah I was here last February, that one stupid storm got pulled out from us within 8 hours (yay sleetfest). I am guilty of whining about snow when we get screwed over, and it only irritates me when when people are saying a winter is over before it starts. I guess it also irritates me because I know that it might be and don’t really want to admit that we might have a 2019-2020 redux. It also makes me upset because it comes down to such small things when there is a storm that makes it impossible to predict 3 day out let alone 3 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 We just don’t know** *but in reality we do 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 we good for early winter. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: we good for early winter. The most recent Euro weeklies backed off a bit on the west coast ridging, but no clear signal for a trough or Alaskan blue ball, so it's pretty ambiguous. Still interesting to see this far out, so far it does seem like we're emulating a bit of Oct/Nov 2017. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 October...November.. all the same with the rate of change of snow cover advance in Eurasia evidently. goin' weaken that PV! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 DT and Judah Cohen. Just need JB and JB2 for the 4 horse weenies of the snowpocalypse. 1 14 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 WB EURO Weeklies 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 38 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: DT and Judah Cohen. Just need JB and JB2 for the 4 horse weenies of the snowpocalypse. DECEMBER TO REMEMBER!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 The last time it snowed and felt like winter in Nov/Dec? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, H2O said: The last time it snowed and felt like winter in Nov/Dec? November 15 2018 was probably our last "substantial" November winter event. Nov 2014 was close too, but both had substantial gradients SE of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 November 2018 was a solid winter event 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 This would be a decent sign that HLB may be a mainstay this early winter season.. With punches already being thrown at the PV this would just continue the assault after a brief recovery. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 Again, the last few times we have done this -PNA/+EPO/potentialenergy-NAO thing, the Winter has had a general warming skew https://ibb.co/1KtNpqg https://ibb.co/1bb4hpr https://ibb.co/X4X4Fwj neg Analogs https://ibb.co/Y7wBZ8z https://ibb.co/CKsYbKL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gopper Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 13 hours ago, CAPE said: we good for early winter. IF there is any validity to this, wouldn't the pattern actually be a couple/few weeks later as models tend to change patterns too soon? That would bode well for December, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 40 minutes ago, gopper said: IF there is any validity to this, wouldn't the pattern actually be a couple/few weeks later as models tend to change patterns too soon? That would bode well for December, IMO. I'm not overly enthused about some anomalously 'favorable' pattern setting up over the next month. Guidance has been persistent in suggesting some seasonable weather and even a period of slightly below normal temps, mostly courtesy of a +PNA, so I will gladly take that if it is also mostly dry. We'll see how things look on guidance in a few weeks as we head into December. For many of us, getting a winter storm in November or even early December is pretty rare. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 11 minutes ago, CAPE said: I'm not overly enthused about some anomalously 'favorable' pattern setting up over the next month. Guidance has been persistent in suggesting some seasonable weather and even a period of slightly below normal temps, mostly courtesy of a +PNA, so I will gladly take that if it is also mostly dry. We'll see how things look on guidance in a few weeks as we head into December. For many of us, getting a winter storm in November or even early December is pretty rare. PV strengthens back after this initial weakening. Moderation in temps during mid November is possible. Later in the month more significant pattern change may develop. I think the odds of a colder December versus November may be more likely given the data currently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 A great winter-type pattern in November is wasted 99% of the time. I'd rather the pattern evolves so by ~10-15 December we have something functional. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 48 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: A great winter-type pattern in November is wasted 99% of the time. I'd rather the pattern evolves so by ~10-15 December we have something functional. I've only been here 5 years (and have yet to experience a significant above 1' snowfall. I think I might have hit 1' once in those 5 years), but I have definitely noticed this since moving - Nov/Dec snows almost seem detrimental lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 Top 20 NAO analogs Aug11-Nov15, we are #1 or #2 https://ibb.co/GWVhDzH ^Dec-Mar This keeps popping up https://ibb.co/VCxt41t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 4 hours ago, WxUSAF said: A great winter-type pattern in November is wasted 99% of the time. I'd rather the pattern evolves so by ~10-15 December we have something functional. Latest from the CFS for week 6 fwiw. Not a terrible look up top and in the EPAC at h5. Suggestive of -EPO/AO and at least a neutral NAO. Verbatim no cold air anywhere close by though lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Latest from the CFS for week 6 fwiw. Not a terrible look up top and in the EPAC at h5. Suggestive of -EPO/AO and at least a neutral NAO. Verbatim no cold air anywhere close by though lol. Here is the entire month of December based off the early morning run today. Front loaded winter? Seems to be two camps on that notion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 1 minute ago, frd said: Here is the entire month of December based off the early morning run today. Front loaded winter? Seems to be two camps on that notion. That looks quite a bit more 'impressive' than the exact same panel on TT. Gotta love WB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Latest from the CFS for week 6 fwiw. Not a terrible look up top and in the EPAC at h5. Suggestive of -EPO/AO and at least a neutral NAO. Verbatim no cold air anywhere close by though lol. There is really only two pockets of cold anywhere in the NH! That’s becoming a common thing. When the red is 70% of the map and the blue is 10%…well I won’t finish so as not to ruin anyone’s Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There is really only two pockets of cold anywhere in the NH! That’s becoming a common thing. When the red is 70% of the map and the blue is 10%…well I won’t finish so as not to ruin anyone’s Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 I've seen this before, they are using '89 and '05 as QBO analogs, for some reason around this time they heavily weight QBO into December.. I wouldn't bet on cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: There is really only two pockets of cold anywhere in the NH! That’s becoming a common thing. When the red is 70% of the map and the blue is 10%…well I won’t finish so as not to ruin anyone’s Friday. You're saying cold air is becoming a problem that might be more long-term. I mean ya don't have to hold back, lol (watch out when PSU starts using exclamation points, folks) Your warnings last year are part of the reason why I've gone more doom and gloom for future snow. Yet somehow...that's not a logical reaction? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 2 hours ago, CAPE said: So...tell me again why my snow pessimism is illogical, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: So...tell me again why snow pessimism is illogical, lol Where did I say you should be optimistic about the chances of seeing even mean snowfall? I have told you several times that 'expecting' median is more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 9 minutes ago, CAPE said: Where did I say you should be optimistic about the chances of seeing even mean snowfall? I have told you several times that 'expecting' median is more realistic. Maybe not so much you...but the rest if the board trolling me for being pessimistic about future snow prospects as if it's not logical. I don't get that...My opinions are largely goin' off of what I hear from y'all!! (particularly the more knowledgeable posters). That and my own eyes from what's happened post 2016. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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