StormchaserChuck! Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 Last 2 and 4 years https://ibb.co/mc4jMDV https://ibb.co/zQzFmnD Cold South America coast pressure/wind https://ibb.co/tZ3k5ZK We'll call it the 2016~7-2021 regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 1 hour ago, CAPE said: You need to stop focusing so much on the PNA phase and pay more attention to the TNH. I think he should look into the STHU index. I will say no other poster has mastered the WTF index as well though. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I think he should look into the STHU index. I will say no other poster has mastered the WTF index as well though. -(-PNA)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 I don’t even know why we are still talking about this winter. We all know that it’s a Nina and that means the temps will be from +5 to +20, there will be no snow outside of a stray flurry (that will close Fauquier schools for a week), a southeast ridge all the way to the Hudson Bay, causing all migrating polar bears to drown, and a PNA so negative that there will blizzards in Acapulco. Just let it die already. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 Yeah, pretty solid +PNA on 18z GFS ensembles, but I bet this over the US wins though (I said watch more -PNA trend as we get closer) https://ibb.co/n0PR8B1 And here's a big pattern setting up at D15 https://ibb.co/BKgh8dr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted October 27, 2021 Share Posted October 27, 2021 As winter seasons roll on I have become in agreement with something I wasn’t.-“ Don’t waste the cold” DC gets. back to back bellow average months once a year and when that’s DJF it’s gold. Since mid 60s DC gets a big winter about every 5/6 winters and every 6 years the two month cold hits at the right time for us. Mid Oct thru Mid Dec cold is useless. Let Pac roar now and not later 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted October 27, 2021 Share Posted October 27, 2021 Pretty informative thread. This also seems to follow a more typical frontloaded Nina progression, and once again, 17-18 pops up as an analog. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 27, 2021 Share Posted October 27, 2021 Great March snow in 2018… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted October 27, 2021 Share Posted October 27, 2021 18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Great March snow in 2018… Only took 80s in mid Feb to get to that point I'd take a repeat of that if the SSW event was just a month earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2021 Share Posted October 27, 2021 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Great March snow in 2018… Snow is snow lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 27, 2021 Share Posted October 27, 2021 In 1964 we had some good October warm going into a good Winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 27, 2021 Share Posted October 27, 2021 8 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Great March snow in 2018… We know it’s a Nina. If we disregard 1996 as a fluke all other Nina’s in the last 75 years fall into two categories. Ones with a flat pacific ridge and no blocking which are the mega disasters like 2008 and 2012. Then there are ones which feature some periods of a poleward pac ridge and or blocking. Those feature threats and usually at least one legit snowstorm and if we’re lucky some fight there way to near average snowfall, which is actually a good winter imo since we only hit avg like 25-30% of the time! Luck often decides if it’s 10” v 20” in those years. All that to say I’d take another 2018. We had a cold pac driven period from mid December to Mid January. 3 or 4 legit threats. Got pretty unlucky imo. Then the torch in late January and Feb was made worse because we had struck out in a decent pattern early. But even during the warm month I remember 2 threats that teased and barely missed. Then the epic March pattern. Get that 2 weeks earlier and maybe we get one more storm! Imo a year with the same general number of threats as 2018 is probably the best we can hope for. Just have to hope we get slightly better luck and hit 1-2 more of the chances. But even if we didn’t a 10-20” winter across the region is far from the worst case scenario for a second year Nina! 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 27, 2021 Share Posted October 27, 2021 Yes. I think a 01-02/11-12 level disaster is certainly possible, but there are also some Ninas that would be tolerable like 10-11 and 17-18 that I’d take in a minute over those worse options. Given the QBO and low solar conditions, we can hope that we will have periods of favorable NHEM blocking. Dat PAC SST though… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Yes. I think a 01-02/11-12 level disaster is certainly possible, but there are also some Ninas that would be tolerable like 10-11 and 17-18 that I’d take in a minute over those worse options. Given the QBO and low solar conditions, we can hope that we will have periods of favorable NHEM blocking. Dat PAC SST though… Yea the pac sst is just about as bad as it could possibly be across the whole basin! We probably just have to hope last winter was the start of a longer term period of prevalent blocking. That could save us from a total dud. Then we have to hope eventually we can line up blocking with a favorable pacific sst. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 Jeez you people are acting like winter is already over. It’s not, specific short range climate is difficult to predict. Does it look good? Not really but don’t see the need for all the doom and gloom. We can just get a fluke storm pretty much no matter the larger scale factors even if the large scale does go to crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 2 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said: Jeez you people are acting like winter is already over. It’s not, specific short range climate is difficult to predict. Does it look good? Not really but don’t see the need for all the doom and gloom. We can just get a fluke storm pretty much no matter the larger scale factors even if the large scale does go to crap. Don't all ninas not named 95/96 pretty much turn out the same around here? (With 2017-18 nickel and dimed 18" total being the high end). See the other ENSO states have more "chaos"...but Ninas are, historically, frustratingly consistent. I don't think any other ENSO has a greater proportion of fails than ninas, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 14 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said: Jeez you people are acting like winter is already over. It’s not, specific short range climate is difficult to predict. Does it look good? Not really but don’t see the need for all the doom and gloom. We can just get a fluke storm pretty much no matter the larger scale factors even if the large scale does go to crap. You must be new here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: You must be new here. Joined right before last winter's Jan/Feb storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Joined right before last winter's Jan/Feb storm Unless it's 1995-1996, 2002-2003, or 2009-2010 redux, it's a failure. I've been guilty of that in the past. Just give me climo and Christmas snow anymore and I'm happy. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Unless it's 1995-1996, 2002-2003, or 2009-2010 redux, it's a failure. I've been guilty of that in the past. Just give me climo and Christmas snow anymore and I'm happy. Yeah I've noticed but people are already acting like this winter is DOA just because it is most likely not going to be a great winter doesn't mean there is no hope/we can't do decent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 14 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Don't all ninas not named 95/96 pretty much turn out the same around here? (With 2017-18 nickel and dimed 18" total being the high end). See the other ENSO states have more "chaos"...but Ninas are, historically, frustratingly consistent. I don't think any other ENSO has a greater proportion of fails than ninas, lol 99-2000 was a decent nina. Pretty epic surprise snowstorm and several borderline events. 98-99 was also a nina that featured a major ice storm in January and another epic surprise snow in March along with a couple threats that just missed in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 12 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Yeah I've noticed but people are already acting like this winter is DOA just because it is most likely not going to be a great winter doesn't mean there is no hope/we can't do decent. Hitsotircally, La Nina winters are pretty terrible south of DC and east of I-95. Unless you're along Mason-Dixon or at a higher elevation, keep your expectations really low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Hitsotircally, La Nina winters are pretty terrible south of DC and east of I-95. Unless you're along Mason-Dixon or at a higher elevation, keep your expectations really low. Yeah but I guess it just irritates me that people act like winter is already dead in October, I understand it probably won't be a good year but it's not dead yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Yeah but I guess it just irritates me that people act like winter is already dead in October, I understand it probably won't be a good year but it's not dead yet. Go back and read the discussion for about August through November of last year. There is some really terrible prognostication in there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Yeah but I guess it just irritates me that people act like winter is already dead in October, I understand it probably won't be a good year but it's not dead yet. You have to understand that we have a tendency to get the rug pulled out from underneath us at the last minute, sometimes as late as 12 to 24 hours prior to the event. It gets worse when folks from other forums come down to rub salt in the wounds and spike the ball in our face just to get a rise out of us. Snow is sacred here, you wait months for a 15 days window that produces maybe 8 to 12 hours of snow and then it's gone by sunset the next day. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 13 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Yeah but I guess it just irritates me that people act like winter is already dead in October, I understand it probably won't be a good year but it's not dead yet. friend, you need to learn to let that shit go. otherwise this place will irritate you non-stop. its what we do here. we cancel before it begins, uncancel when it looks good, only to cancel it again at game-time. just how it goes during the winter people deb. people weenie. people bicker and complain. wash rinse repeat every winter. join em, or learn to ignore em 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 22 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Yeah but I guess it just irritates me that people act like winter is already dead in October, I understand it probably won't be a good year but it's not dead yet. Just wait till @Ji is back on the board. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 15 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Just wait till @Ji is back on the board. The ignore function is the best. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 15 minutes ago, mattie g said: The ignore function is the best. If only everyone would do that. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said: Yeah but I guess it just irritates me that people act like winter is already dead in October, I understand it probably won't be a good year but it's not dead yet. A good rule of thumb is "it will never snow again.. until it does". 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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