RIC_WX Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 2 hours ago, GramaxRefugee said: Today's LWX AFD is mentioning these record numbers for Friday: DCA - 87 in 1975 BWI - 86 in 1989 IAD - 88 in 1989 I think we don't get anywhere close to these, but wanted to note that October 1989 led to the coldest December ever recorded. Departure of -14.6 at IAD; -13.2 at BWI. Second coldest in Balto was in 1876, (departure -11.3). 12 of the December record min temps at IAD were set in 1989. It snowed on thanksgiving. 89-90 maybe the most front loaded winter of the past 50 years. I can't entirely imagine a 2021 version of this to be nearly as interesting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 33 minutes ago, RIC_WX said: It snowed on thanksgiving. 89-90 maybe the most front loaded winter of the past 50 years. I can't entirely imagine a 2021 version of this to be nearly as interesting. Checking the front loaded 1989 at locations that just had the ultra-cold Feb 2021....Tyler, TX (e.g.) hit 97f on 10-3-89 but finished October as normal. Went on to record a very cold Christmas with lows of 9, 0, 1, & 14; from 12-22 to 12-25. Daily departure of -39 on 12-23. Monthly departure of -9.5. Very cold for east TX. I'm starting to think these guys selling the December-to-remember are looking better and better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 2005-6 kept coming up as an analog, it was in like 5/5 studies I did... I don't think it's a good analog though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck! said: 2005-6 kept coming up as an analog, it was in like 5/5 studies I did... I don't think it's a good analog though Do you have any years that look like good analogs to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 89-90 is a cringe worthy analog to be throwing around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 30 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Ugh. Now you really are talking cringe-worthy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 3 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said: Do you have any years that look like good analogs to you? 2017-18, fake El Nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 7 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: 2017-18, fake El Nino I wouldn’t be mad if we got December 2017 again, but the rest was a disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 2 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said: I wouldn’t be mad if we got December 2017 again, but the rest was a disappointment. We kind of had continental cold sitting, but.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 Mid West Blizzard MIGHT be a decent December/January sign for us. The last monster mid October blizzard like the one that is coming was a pre curser to the winter of 1939/40. Early blockbuster. Buried the entire East coast and Europe. I know. I am a weenie. But do some research on that setup. Then look at this October. If I am right. Expect a pretty warm November followed by the bottom dropping out in Dec/Jan. And tons of front end precip. Those who know me on here know I dont usually do long range stuff. But this October setup intrigues me. And of course I am purely guessing. Just like everyone else. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 6 hours ago, clskinsfan said: Mid West Blizzard MIGHT be a decent December/January sign for us. The last monster mid October blizzard like the one that is coming was a pre curser to the winter of 1939/40. Early blockbuster. Buried the entire East coast and Europe. I know. I am a weenie. But do some research on that setup. Then look at this October. If I am right. Expect a pretty warm November followed by the bottom dropping out in Dec/Jan. And tons of front end precip. Those who know me on here know I dont usually do long range stuff. But this October setup intrigues me. And of course I am purely guessing. Just like everyone else. He's correct. Mid Atlantic is going to get destroyed this winter by snow and fierce cold. You better get your shovels NOW! Everyone is gonna be buyin them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 1 hour ago, Jebman said: You better get your shovels NOW! Everyone is gonna be buyin them! No you’ll jinx it if you do that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 12 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said: I wouldn’t be mad if we got December 2017 again, but the rest was a disappointment. A quick chase to the beach in early Jan and your winter would have been made. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 59 minutes ago, CAPE said: A quick chase to the beach in early Jan and your winter would have been made. Lol. We couldn’t get there for that one but made it down for the January 2017 storm and had dinner at The Crab Bag. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Lol. We couldn’t get there for that one but made it down for the January 2017 storm and had dinner at The Crab Bag. I forgot you were there for that one. I did both in Rehoboth. Fun times. I have a feeling I will be taking a trip to Canaan this winter for my snow fix. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 Is it over yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Is it over yet? _ PNA 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 14 hours ago, clskinsfan said: Mid West Blizzard MIGHT be a decent December/January sign for us. The last monster mid October blizzard like the one that is coming was a pre curser to the winter of 1939/40. Early blockbuster. Buried the entire East coast and Europe. I know. I am a weenie. But do some research on that setup. Then look at this October. If I am right. Expect a pretty warm November followed by the bottom dropping out in Dec/Jan. And tons of front end precip. Those who know me on here know I dont usually do long range stuff. But this October setup intrigues me. And of course I am purely guessing. Just like everyone else. Did I miss something? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 19 hours ago, Cobalt said: Even if similar, won't be close to the same. We throw around temperature comparisons without consideration of precipitation. The mid 2001-mid 2002 year was amongst the driest on record for the mid atlantic, precip maybe 50%-60% of normal. Nothing about the current era is remotely comparable to this. I think it fully disqualifies this analog, although most defnitely not suggesting it couldn't still turn out similarly mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 6 hours ago, CAPE said: A quick chase to the beach in early Jan and your winter would have been made. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Fake storm! All blowing sand!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 27 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Fake storm! All blowing sand!!! Snow/sand mix works for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 44 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Snow/sand mix works for me I'll take all sand if it's enough to cover the grass. No need to worry about consolidation then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 6 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Did I miss something? Yeah. Meant to say one that is happening in MT. I was pretty hammered last night. So just ignore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 On 10/15/2021 at 9:12 AM, CAPE said: _ PNA https://ibb.co/mcMRfGW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 19 hours ago, clskinsfan said: Yeah. Meant to say one that is happening in MT. I was pretty hammered last night. So just ignore. MT isn't real, I found a 0.00 correlation between Mountain Torque and Stratospheric warming. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 -QBO, I think, is saying Nov15-Dec15 will be cold, but I don't think we will break -PNA. -PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 We are going to have like 40 straight days of -NAO, going into Nov1st. 4th time this year. ( I would post images if I had more attachment space- I think 19/19 of last -NAO have all been associated with -PNA or +EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 No scientific evidence but this has to be our year right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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