IronTy Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 It's not possible for this winter to be worse than last winter. If it's any warmer than last year then I can enjoy the outdoors better and wear shorts for the entire year. Maybe even garden. It couldn't possibly snow less than last year since you can't have negative snow. So I'm looking forward to it, I predict some solid cold. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 22 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Because of the blocking. We need to get some of that cold over here and then set up some blocking Definitely. The blocking kept it at bay and when the cold air finally made it here it had moderated too much. It just proves how much luck is really involved in us having a blockbuster winter. We were over climo last year so I am not complaining. We get cold enough regardless. But for the coastal plain they need the cold air much more. And if they get it we get it better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 2 hours ago, IronTy said: It's not possible for this winter to be worse than last winter. If it's any warmer than last year then I can enjoy the outdoors better and wear shorts for the entire year. Maybe even garden. It couldn't possibly snow less than last year since you can't have negative snow. So I'm looking forward to it, I predict some solid cold. I think we'd all lose our minds if a 97-98 winter appeared. Yes I believe it was a super El Nino... but those temps... yikes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 16 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Take it FWIW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 10 minutes ago, yoda said: Take it FWIW. Check out the max on that map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 17 hours ago, yoda said: I think we'd all lose our minds if a 97-98 winter appeared. Yes I believe it was a super El Nino... but those temps... yikes Are ninas usually that warm, though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 -PNA is record setting. +400dm coming up. This Sept/Oct is going to be most -PDO, meaning Aleutian ridge/GOA trough since satellites in 1948. The Winter composite is Global warming skew... this is 8plus years and 8minus years. Warm in the mid-latitudes~ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 This is going great 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 8 hours ago, yoda said: Take it FWIW. Not showing enough from RIC to BOS. They will get more than that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 15 hours ago, yoda said: Take it FWIW. Lol Weather Will wont be happy you posted this. And that looks like a smoothed over climo average snowfall map, maybe with slight adjustments for ENSO state. Just what one would expect from a seasonal model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 ok….so are there any known correlations between cold Antarctic winters and the upcoming winter for the Northern Hemisphere??? CNN)In a year of extreme heat, Antarctica's last six months were the coldest on record. "For the polar darkness period, from April through September, the average temperature was -60.9 degrees Celsius (-77.6 degrees Fahrenheit), a record for those months," the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) said. The last six months is also the darkest period at the South Pole, which is where the name polar darkness (also called polar night) comes from. Here, the sun sets for the last time around the spring equinox, and does not rise again until near the autumn equinox six months later. For the entire Antarctic continent, the winter of 2021 was the second-coldest on record, with the "temperature for June, July, and August 3.4 degrees Celsius (6.1 degrees Fahrenheit) lower than the 1981 to 2010 average at -62.9 degrees Celsius (-81.2 degrees Fahrenheit)," according to a new report from the NSIDC. "This is the second-coldest winter (June-July-August months) on record, behind only 2004 in the 60-year weather record at Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station," the NSIDC said. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 2 hours ago, CAPE said: Lol Weather Will wont be happy you posted this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 21 minutes ago, Weather Will said: ok….so are there any known correlations between cold Antarctic winters and the upcoming winter for the Northern Hemisphere??? CNN)In a year of extreme heat, Antarctica's last six months were the coldest on record. "For the polar darkness period, from April through September, the average temperature was -60.9 degrees Celsius (-77.6 degrees Fahrenheit), a record for those months," the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) said. The last six months is also the darkest period at the South Pole, which is where the name polar darkness (also called polar night) comes from. Here, the sun sets for the last time around the spring equinox, and does not rise again until near the autumn equinox six months later. For the entire Antarctic continent, the winter of 2021 was the second-coldest on record, with the "temperature for June, July, and August 3.4 degrees Celsius (6.1 degrees Fahrenheit) lower than the 1981 to 2010 average at -62.9 degrees Celsius (-81.2 degrees Fahrenheit)," according to a new report from the NSIDC. "This is the second-coldest winter (June-July-August months) on record, behind only 2004 in the 60-year weather record at Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station," the NSIDC said. That is literally unimaginable cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 17 hours ago, yoda said: Take it FWIW. They make a 215d snow map? Seems right that I can't even break double digits on a 215d map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 Interesting thread regarding the MJO. If something similar plays out this winter we should at least see windows of opportunity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 54 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Interesting thread regarding the MJO. If something similar plays out this winter we should at least see windows of opportunity. Doesn't this show more prevalent MJO phases 3-5 in Nina with -QBO (like we have now)? Those are pretty crappy phases for us...We want 8-1-2 in winter. Phase 3 can be good in March IIRC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 11 hours ago, ldub23 said: Not showing enough from RIC to BOS. They will get more than that. Short Pump got the lower end of the slanted snow stick once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 55 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Doesn't this show more prevalent MJO phases 3-5 in Nina with -QBO (like we have now)? Those are pretty crappy phases for us...We want 8-1-2 in winter. Phase 3 can be good in March IIRC. It does...but I guess the positive takeaway, imo, is it shows a good signal for a progressive mjo. Hence, windows of opportunity. Not a lot of great signals in general for this winter. Im just looking for signs of something that will buck the system (best case scenario) or at least a sign that the classic nina pattern could have interruptions. I have no clue and no expectations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 Latest CFS runs have a pretty decent look for December, then it all goes to shit like the rest of the seasonals, with a monstrous Pac ridge and ++AO/NAO. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 Let’s see how this verifies for New Years Day 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 On 10/8/2021 at 2:44 PM, yoda said: Take it FWIW. This looks like it will be more accurate…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 If there is a glimmer of hope, snow pack is building over the next month in Canada….cold air source perhaps for December… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 23 hours ago, Rhino16 said: Short Pump got the lower end of the slanted snow stick once again. Dont worry, I just went with the big cities. You will be well above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 1 hour ago, ldub23 said: Dont worry, I just went with the big cities. You will be well above average. They call it short pump for a reason. Well, two actually 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 CFS weeklies start to build heights in the NAO domain around mid November. As advertised December has a -AO/NAO, -EPO, and neutral PNA. Things look to shift sometime in early Jan, and go to complete crap into February. Long way off, but at least seeing some signs that December could have a decent h5 look. I think that aligns with the thoughts of some of the folks who dabble in predicting the character of the upcoming winter. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 17 minutes ago, CAPE said: CFS weeklies start to build heights in the NAO domain around mid November. As advertised December has a -AO/NAO, -EPO, and neutral PNA. Things look to shift sometime in early Jan, and go to complete crap into February. Long way off, but at least seeing some signs that December could have a decent h5 look. I think that aligns with the thoughts of some of the folks who dabble in predicting the character of the upcoming winter. Though we might be better off if the best pattern set up in Jan or Feb at least we don’t need to worry about sun angle at all in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 40 minutes ago, CAPE said: CFS weeklies start to build heights in the NAO domain around mid November. As advertised December has a -AO/NAO, -EPO, and neutral PNA. Things look to shift sometime in early Jan, and go to complete crap into February. Long way off, but at least seeing some signs that December could have a decent h5 look. I think that aligns with the thoughts of some of the folks who dabble in predicting the character of the upcoming winter. That's would be a textbook nina, wouldn't it...actually 2017-18 verbatim, imo. We had a cold December with a couple light events...then the unfortunately missed bomb cyclone in early Jan...warmish February (that somehow managed a light event towards the end of the month--just a fee days of upper 60s/lower 70s). We ain't gonna talk about March (I still have PTSD from the that stupid GL low, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 49 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Though we might be better off if the best pattern set up in Jan or Feb at least we don’t need to worry about sun angle at all in December. Ill take my chances with blocking in December. Especially with some cold air on our side of the hemisphere. I would much rather be worrying about blocking breaking down than wondering if any blocking is ever going to happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 3 hours ago, clskinsfan said: Ill take my chances with blocking in December. Especially with some cold air on our side of the hemisphere. I would much rather be worrying about blocking breaking down than wondering if any blocking is ever going to happen. Absolutely. I will roll the dice with a favorable AO/NAO anytime. The basic problem in December is climo, so HL blocking may simply produce chilly and wet when storms come along, esp for the lowlands. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now