Mr. Kevin Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, especially down there...we can get away with it in NE. But +EPO sucks for everyone. Ray,can we get a -epo in a -pdo default pattern or is it really difficult? I guess that's why most hope we can get a taller aleutian ridge instead of flat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 QBO check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 Colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 Pull the rubberband Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 Then rubberband snaps back ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 18 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said: Ray,can we get a -epo in a -pdo default pattern or is it really difficult? I guess that's why most hope we can get a taller aleutian ridge instead of flat Sure we can....its alot easier the more east based la nina is. Keep the coolest anonalies out of region 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 On 10/1/2021 at 12:53 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think it takes a high-end winter off of the table for you guys, but you could still pull a 2010-2011 type season in which you do well, though still looking over your shoulder and grimacing at NE. But hey, at least the Pats suck now lol Umm DC had 10” and BWI 14” total in 2011. Both below avg. That’s remembered as a pretty bad year in this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Umm DC had 10” and BWI 14” total in 2011. Both below avg. That’s remembered as a pretty bad year in this forum. Yea, "well" is a relative term...when the other option is cyhphilis, then I'll be content with herpes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, "well" is a relative term...when the other option is cyhphilis, then I'll be content with herpes. Lol. This is totally subjective but you seem to imply 2011 should be in the “ok” category here. I think if we were to split winters into “good, ok, bad” categories that year was perceived as bad by most. Well below avg snowfall across the area and lots of disappointments. And not the kind where we get a few inches but others got more. Storms that totally blanked us while not too far away got dumped. Just for reference if I was categorizing winters since 2000 it would provably be Good: 2003, 2010, 2014, 2015 ok: 2000, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2016, 2018, 2019 bad: 2001, 2002, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2017, 2020, 2021 of course, as I said, that’s very subjective. You could get to break away the “really awful” years where it barely snowed at all like 2002, 2012, 2020 and say 2011 wasn’t one of those and yea…but that’s a super low bar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Sure we can....its alot easier the more east based la nina is. Keep the coolest anonalies out of region 4. Possibly central Pac based La Nina setting up during the boreal winter. There is support for that outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 55 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Umm DC had 10” and BWI 14” total in 2011. Both below avg. That’s remembered as a pretty bad year in this forum. And we were lucky to get that! (Thanks to Commutagedon, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Umm DC had 10” and BWI 14” total in 2011. Both below avg. That’s remembered as a pretty bad year in this forum. That may be true but forgotten is how close that winter came to being a very good winter wrt snowfall. There were several times that we simply unlucky. Several come to mind for me. There was the early Dec clipper that slid just to our south. The Boxing day fiasco and the snow that preceded it I think on Christmas Day. The early January storm that looked good up until the last minute when it went just a little too far north. A mid February storm that delivered a ton more sleet than it was supposed to and dropped about 8” from Hagerstown north. Id roll the dice with that winter again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Lol. This is totally subjective but you seem to imply 2011 should be in the “ok” category here. I think if we were to split winters into “good, ok, bad” categories that year was perceived as bad by most. Well below avg snowfall across the area and lots of disappointments. And not the kind where we get a few inches but others got more. Storms that totally blanked us while not too far away got dumped. Just for reference if I was categorizing winters since 2000 it would provably be Good: 2003, 2010, 2014, 2015 ok: 2000, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2016, 2018, 2019 bad: 2001, 2002, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2017, 2020, 2021 of course, as I said, that’s very subjective. You could get to break away the “really awful” years where it barely snowed at all like 2002, 2012, 2020 and say 2011 wasn’t one of those and yea…but that’s a super low bar. How you classify 2012-2013 and last year as bad winters baffles me. 2015-2016 was awful save 3 days. 2017-2018 was terrible. I guess what you say is true. It’s subjective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 15 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: How you classify 2012-2013 and last year as bad winters baffles me. 2015-2016 was awful save 3 days. 2017-2018 was terrible. I guess what you say is true. It’s subjective. My evaluation is weighted very highly on the DCA/IAD/BWI urban corridor. That’s where “most” of this forum lives. And this is subjective but my rationale… DC had 3” In 2012-13. 2016 wasn’t only 3 days. There were some February events. One DCA south and one for the northern areas. And a minor March event. And those 3 days were one of the top 5 snowstorms in this area ever. So…I only gave it ok. Sorry but any winter with a HECS is ok to me regardless what else. 2018 was just a mistake and belongs in the bad category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 24 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: How you classify 2012-2013 and last year as bad winters baffles me. 2015-2016 was awful save 3 days. 2017-2018 was terrible. I guess what you say is true. It’s subjective. And last winter was 12”, 10”, 5” At the 3 airports. It was a good winter for me. Not good in the DC Balt urban corridor. Last winter was the tightest gradient I can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: And last winter was 12”, 10”, 5” At the 3 airports. It was a good winter for me. Not good in the DC Balt urban corridor. Last winter was the tightest gradient I can remember. Fair enough. But I only evaluate winter here. That 2012-2013 stat for DC is amazing. If my memory serves, that winter had low 30’s or so here with over 20 in March alone. It was really nice around Christmas with 3” on Christmas Eve, and the about 6” of snow, sleet, freezing rain the day after Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: My evaluation is weighted very highly on the DCA/IAD/BWI urban corridor. That’s where “most” of this forum lives. And this is subjective but my rationale… DC had 3” In 2012-13. 2016 wasn’t only 3 days. There were some February events. One DCA south and one for the northern areas. And a minor March event. And those 3 days were one of the top 5 snowstorms in this area ever. So…I only gave it ok. Sorry but any winter with a HECS is ok to me regardless what else. 2018 was just a mistake and belongs in the bad category. There was nothing here in 2016 outside of one weekend. Literally nothing. I think maybe about 1/2” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 4 hours ago, frd said: Possibly central Pac based La Nina setting up during the boreal winter. There is support for that outcome. Agreed. Not best case, not worst case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 4 hours ago, frd said: Possibly central Pac based La Nina setting up during the boreal winter. There is support for that outcome. 4th double dip this century...2nd one the last 6 years. Why do we double-dip on ninas? Boo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 7 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That may be true but forgotten is how close that winter came to being a very good winter wrt snowfall. There were several times that we simply unlucky. Several come to mind for me. There was the early Dec clipper that slid just to our south. The Boxing day fiasco and the snow that preceded it I think on Christmas Day. The early January storm that looked good up until the last minute when it went just a little too far north. A mid February storm that delivered a ton more sleet than it was supposed to and dropped about 8” from Hagerstown north. Id roll the dice with that winter again. 10-11 was a great Winter here in far SW VA.. No major snowstorms but, plenty of cold and lt to moderate events that led to an above average Season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 15 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: There was nothing here in 2016 outside of one weekend. Literally nothing. I think maybe about 1/2” There was one other event here, ofc the big storm had the dry slot east of I-95, so it wasn't even that big. That winter sucked because it was a torch outside of about 10 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 The warmer this October ends the higher the odds of a colder Novemember into and early to mid December . So far things look to line up very warm in the NE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 22 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Sure we can....its alot easier the more east based la nina is. Keep the coolest anonalies out of region 4. Weaker the better for niña, especially where it's location will be in the Pacific. Of course Ray, i am just a novice compared to you, but typically a -qbo promotes blocking, but it does us no good if we aren't able to get that -wpo/epo combo during boreal winter. Am I off base or close to being correct? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 20 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: There was nothing here in 2016 outside of one weekend. Literally nothing. I think maybe about 1/2” I lived in Winchester then. You’re right it’s was nothing beyond that one weekend really; however, I would never say it was a bad winter when you get an all time blizzard even if it’s the only event. But as you say, subjective. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 5 hours ago, frd said: The warmer this October ends the higher the odds of a colder Novemember into and early to mid December . So far things look to line up very warm in the NE Why? Just the balance of extremes. Or something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 15 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Why? Just the balance of extremes. Or something else. Some of the warmest Octobers on record have produced this in the following Novembers. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 4, 2021 Share Posted October 4, 2021 Growing support for a deeper dive with the Arctic oscillation for late October. If it happens it will support the idea that November would feature a weaker than normal polar vortex. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 4, 2021 Share Posted October 4, 2021 On 10/2/2021 at 1:26 PM, psuhoffman said: Umm DC had 10” and BWI 14” total in 2011. Both below avg. That’s remembered as a pretty bad year in this forum. It's a longstanding tradition for New englanders to tell us how good our winters were when New England scored. Started with 04-05 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 4, 2021 Share Posted October 4, 2021 I'm not too enthused about winter, but I haven't really done a deep dive yet. I have a presentation in 3 weeks. This thread looks like a good place to start. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 4, 2021 Share Posted October 4, 2021 20 hours ago, frd said: Some of the warmest Octobers on record have produced this in the following Novembers. Big +PNA 2020, Big -PNA 2019 same time. https://ibb.co/5rL8Z76 https://ibb.co/rMdPNq7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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