Winter 2021-22

[frd]

 

Latest IRI/CPC  models going for a weak Nina.   Well, except the CPC,  but the other 26 models, including the Euro,  keep the Nina weak.    

[psuhoffman]

29 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Pretty classic -PDO signal there

My thoughts just glancing at that were “whatever benefit in the enso region is more than offset by the degradation in the north PAC”. 

[WxUSAF]

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

My thoughts just glancing at that were “whatever benefit in the enso region is more than offset by the degradation in the north PAC”. 

Yeah. Even if we have high latitude blocking, it’s going to be fighting against a hostile PAC. That’s a losing battle for us more often than not.

[Maestrobjwa]

11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah. Even if we have high latitude blocking, it’s going to be fighting against a hostile PAC. That’s a losing battle for us more often than not.

So basically the PAC is gonna be the same as it has been the last 5 years?

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

So basically the PAC is gonna be the same as it has been the last 5 years?

Yes. Or worse

[WinterWxLuvr]

12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah. Even if we have high latitude blocking, it’s going to be fighting against a hostile PAC. That’s a losing battle for us more often than not.

It’s almost impossible to win a fight with the Pacific. You might survive it but you won’t win it.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Yes. Or worse

So...how many consecutive years before we talk about this being a mainstay? I mean I'm wondering about history here...any records about the most consecutive years with a hostile PAC? (Did that happen in the 70s?)

[WxUSAF]

10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So...how many consecutive years before we talk about this being a mainstay? I mean I'm wondering about history here...any records about the most consecutive years with a hostile PAC? (Did that happen in the 70s?)

2018-19 was a Nino winter.

[frd]

46 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah. Even if we have high latitude blocking, it’s going to be fighting against a hostile PAC. That’s a losing battle for us more often than not.

Its a psychological relief to know in advance that the odds of a normal winter for the Mid Atlantic outside of the higher elevations is going to be a challenge. That notion typically fits well with a Nina. 

Data supports less and less snowfall the last 5 years from generally DC and points South and SW.  

I also mentioned last winter I feel that a + PNA is more important than a super negative AO.   Donald S. may even have the stats to prove this. Nothing is simple anymore,  prior positive weather teleconnections need to be taken with a step back. No one really knows what this winter will hold, outside of the persistance track of late.      

[frd]

41 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It’s almost impossible to win a fight with the Pacific. You might survive it but you won’t win it.

For our area away from the higher elevations we really need the Pac to cooperate. 

[Maestrobjwa]

32 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

2018-19 was a Nino winter.

Wait the PAC was actually favorable that year? (now,I know the Nino never really coupled to the atmosphere that winter...and I attributed that to the somewhat lackluster results)

[Maestrobjwa]

13 minutes ago, frd said:

Its a psychological relief to know in advance that the odds of a normal winter for the Mid Atlantic outside of the higher elevations is going to be a challenge. That notion typically fits well with a Nina. 

Data supports less and less snowfall the last 5 years from generally DC and points South and SW.  

I also mentioned last winter I feel that a + PNA is more important than a super negative AO.   Donald S. may even have the stats to prove this. Nothing is simple anymore,  prior positive weather teleconnections need to be taken with a step back. No one really knows what this winter will hold, outside of the persistance track of late.      

Yes it is better to know now than later...I know I'm not gonna track much of anything (and hence staying off of here more and sparing myself depression/angst, lol) because you pretty much know what we're dealing with. And it's typical nina...now what's annoying is that this is the FOURTH Nina we've had in the last 6 years, smh I still wanna know why ninas seem to come in pairs more than niños...sheesh.

[frd]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wait the PAC was actually favorable that year? (now,I know the Nino never really coupled to the atmosphere that winter...and I attributed that to the somewhat lackluster results)

Was a pathetic Nino, screwy SOI and strange MJO , and it did not behave like your old fashion El Ninos. 

[GramaxRefugee]

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So...how many consecutive years before we talk about this being a mainstay? 

The "D" stands for Decadal. ...(for the simple answer.)

This isn't bad:      https://www.daculaweather.com/4_pdo_index.php

 

 

[midatlanticweather]

Always wonder if this is Banter since it is so early of a forecast:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/accuweathers-2021-2022-us-winter-forecast/1022887

 

[North Balti Zen]

 

[StormchaserChuck!]

Do you know that we haven't had a -PNA/>0.0EPO October since 2008 (weird since almost all Winter's have been)

Models are strong on this, analogs 2001,2007,2008

We have had above average rainfall across the US 75/25> for 7 October's in a row- negative AOhappening. Will be interesting to see what happens with this. 

Analogs to next 15days models of -PNA

 

[StormchaserChuck!]

It looks like Nino3.4 will probably hit Moderate La Nina. -PNA, almost all of the time Dec1 - Mar31. 122 days, I say we have a mean+anomaly 500mb ridge north of Hawaii every day.

[WinterWxLuvr]

We need a “dial-a-Chuck”. Kinda like Wheel of Fortune.

Give ‘er a spin. Let’s see how good winter is gonna be today.

[jaydreb]

Accuweather “forecast”.   I guess it would still be an improvement from last year. 

[WxUSAF]

20-26” in Philly and 7-11” for DC? Ouch

[WinterWxLuvr]

Winter snowfall predictions aren’t worth the 3 minutes it took to type them up. 

[ldub23]

Im going  big. Ric-Bos 200% of  normal.

[psuhoffman]

6 hours ago, frd said:

For our area away from the higher elevations we really need the Pac to cooperate. 

Nothing is absolute. But if we want a blockbuster winter we probably need some pac cooperation.   And given recent trends if I had to choose one I’d take the pac over the Atlantic. 50 years ago it might have been the opposite. But temps are by far the biggest issue now. 
 

If we want a hecs level storm the NAO is still necessary. The only hecs without NAO assist was PD2 and that featured a well timed transient monster 50/50 that substituted.  
 

We can still snow with NAO help and a bad pac but it’s more likely later in winter. December and January we really need the pac.  By late February and March we can sometimes get lucky without pac help.  March 2018 was an example. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

20-26” in Philly and 7-11” for DC? Ouch

Yes ouch but that’s kinda been the trend/ratio recently.  DC has not benefited from good winters in Philly as often recently as historically. 

[raindancewx]

There are some mixed signals going into this winter. More than last year in some ways.

The lowest Arctic sea ice extents in September correlate pretty well since the data starts to the biggest +WPO winters. That's a horrible/strong warm signal for most of Canada and the eastern US. But with more sea-ice extent this September v. 2020 you can already see the WPO behaving differently. It was very negative last October (a very cold signal for the Plains), while the temperature profile on the CFS is almost ideal positive (of course the CFS is terrible at predicting October I find). Generally you want upper level low pressure (blue) by 180W, 60N to be north of upper level high pressure (red) by 180W, 30N to get the +WPO sign from eyeballing it. WPO tends to not flip super often. So +WPO October is usually a cold signal for the West in Nov-Dec, a wet signal in the Plains in November, and a warm signal for the east through at least December.

You can see what last year looked like when it was negative.

For what it's worth, you're not really "supposed" to get huge +WPO readings with La Nina - last year was the first to have it so consistently positive since 1950 (only La Nina over +1.00 in Dec-Feb). Part of why I liked 2007-08 is it was the strongest recent La Nina with pretty consistently positive WPO readings. I think Joe Bastardi and his crew expect the WPO to go negative in December and that's part of why they expect a colder outcome than I do for the East. Some of the analogs I have do show that, but not the recent years.

[uncle W]

2 hours ago, jaydreb said:

Accuweather “forecast”.   I guess it would still be an improvement from last year. 

NYC's new average snowfall is almost 30"...since 1870 its 27.5"...

[Chris78]

14 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

There are some mixed signals going into this winter. More than last year in some ways.

The lowest Arctic sea ice extents in September correlate pretty well since the data starts to the biggest +WPO winters. That's a horrible/strong warm signal for most of Canada and the eastern US. But with more sea-ice extent this September v. 2020 you can already see the WPO behaving differently. It was very negative last October (a very cold signal for the Plains), while the temperature profile on the CFS is almost ideal positive (of course the CFS is terrible at predicting October I find). Generally you want upper level low pressure (blue) by 180W, 60N to be north of upper level high pressure (red) by 180W, 30N to get the +WPO sign from eyeballing it. WPO tends to not flip super often. So +WPO October is usually a cold signal for the West in Nov-Dec, a wet signal in the Plains in November, and a warm signal for the east through at least December.

You can see what last year looked like when it was negative.

For what it's worth, you're not really "supposed" to get huge +WPO readings with La Nina - last year was the first to have it so consistently positive since 1950 (only La Nina over +1.00 in Dec-Feb). Part of why I liked 2007-08 is it was the strongest recent La Nina with pretty consistently positive WPO readings. I think Joe Bastardi and his crew expect the WPO to go negative in December and that's part of why they expect a colder outcome than I do for the East. Some of the analogs I have do show that, but not the recent years.

Doesn't Bastardi always go cold snowy. Lol

[CAPE]

9 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

20-26” in Philly and 7-11” for DC? Ouch

Nina Miller-B screwjobs. 

[StormchaserChuck!]