psuhoffman Posted September 2, 2021 Share Posted September 2, 2021 15 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said: We won't have Moderate La Nina without -PNA. You can’t just decide to define a Nina differently. The point you’re making about the oddity and abnormal (non nina) behavior is very valid but by the way we define a Nina it was a Nina. This is irrelevant since we have almost none of the oddities that causes 1995/6 to behave antithetical too a canonical Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 2, 2021 Share Posted September 2, 2021 Might be a good time to revisit the predictions for last winter that were being thrown around this time last year. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted September 2, 2021 Share Posted September 2, 2021 4 hours ago, psuhoffman said: You can’t just decide to define a Nina differently. The point you’re making about the oddity and abnormal (non nina) behavior is very valid but by the way we define a Nina it was a Nina. This is irrelevant since we have almost none of the oddities that causes 1995/6 to behave antithetical too a canonical Nina. Go out and measure Pacific equilatoral SSTs in December.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted September 3, 2021 Share Posted September 3, 2021 74-75 I think was a La Nina with +PNA. La Nina's are pretty rigid because they strengthen the mid-latitude jet, less land-ocean variance. I'm just saying, in the subsurface this one is not a La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted September 3, 2021 Share Posted September 3, 2021 79-80, 96-97, and 01-02 all had similar characteristics to 97-98 fwiw. (maybe StrongEl Nino in another dimension?) (It also seems to default to +EPO with -NAO pre-potential) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted September 3, 2021 Share Posted September 3, 2021 14 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Go out and measure Pacific equilatoral SSTs in December.. Sure, let me just grab my boat and let my boss know. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted September 3, 2021 Share Posted September 3, 2021 It would be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted September 3, 2021 Share Posted September 3, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 3, 2021 Share Posted September 3, 2021 1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said: Bring it!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted September 3, 2021 Share Posted September 3, 2021 12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Bring it!!! Like the winter of '77 when people were driving their cars on the ice @the inner harbor! YIKE! Cold but no snow. YUCK! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted September 3, 2021 Share Posted September 3, 2021 1 hour ago, Stormfly said: Like the winter of '77 when people were driving their cars on the ice @the inner harbor! YIKE! Cold but no snow. YUCK! Earth's gravity was weaker in those days, so cars weighed less. Actually, I was driving a '68 VW Beetle that winter, (weight < 1800#) so maybe there's some truth there. I do recall looking at certain wheel tracks on the ice of the WSSC reservoir at the Rte 29 bridge. But I did not drive my car on the ice. I think it was a Chevy Vega. (Don't ask how I know.) Kids today don't know the fun they're missing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted September 3, 2021 Share Posted September 3, 2021 I'm sure the thickness of the ice was no problem! I remember helping my grandfather break ice around the pilings on his wharf on Stoney Creek well into April and the ice was still 4" thick! Incredible! I also remember hearing what sounded like thunder as far away as Parkville - outside of the beltway and it was told it was essentially calving! I'm OK with change as in getting colder and LOVE cold as I get older BUT it gets expensive keeping the abode warm too! May have to put in another wood stove and increase the size of the woodpile! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 4, 2021 Share Posted September 4, 2021 7 hours ago, North Balti Zen said: Every year about this time, CWG drags out this theorem. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted September 4, 2021 Share Posted September 4, 2021 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Every year about this time, CWG drags out this theorem. You know this, but it’s only a theorem if it’s been proven. That statement is a hypothesis, and I bet some would wager that it isn’t even an educated guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 QBO 30 mb zonal wind index continues to trend negative heading into Fall. May 0.31 June -6.93 July -13.17 August -13.82 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 5 hours ago, CAPE said: QBO 30 mb zonal wind index continues to trend negative heading into Fall. May 0.31 June -6.93 July -13.17 August -13.82 Is this a good thing or bad thing for snow prospects? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 On 9/3/2021 at 1:07 PM, North Balti Zen said: I just started my car and will now let it run overnights. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 eh, disappointing Winter coming, E ENSO is complete Neutral 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 Western drought since 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 WB EURO December seasonal. If we get a White Christmas, I would call it a winter! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 30 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB EURO December seasonal. If we get a White Christmas, I would call it a winter! I’d love that look but I’m not trading one snow day for a whole winter 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted September 6, 2021 Share Posted September 6, 2021 It doesn't work reliably in Baltimore/DC and south, but in La Nina years, ACE over 150 is almost a pre-requisite Summer trait for the big NE snowy winters. Pretty sure there are no La Ninas more than +20% or +30% for NYC/Philly snow totals since 1930 when ACE is not at least 150. I know you guys don't live up there, but if you hit 150 ACE in the Summer, you at least have a shot at a lot of Nor'easters with blocking. The big ACE La Nina years since 1931-32 are these, in order of highest ACE: 1933, 2005, 1995, 2017, 1950, 1998, 2020, 1999, 2010, 1955, 1964. If you use Baltimore, the 11-year average snowfall is (44.6+19.6+62.5+15.4+6.2+15.2+10.9+26.1+14.4+18.1+18.6)/11 --> 22.9, and essentially a coin flip for near-normal to snowy conditions using the 1991-2020 snow average. 1933-34, 2005-06, 1995-96, 1999-00, 1955-56, 1964-65 are all near average to snowy using the most recent 30 years. 2020-21 and 2010-11 would probably be snowy patterns too with less bad luck. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 6, 2021 Share Posted September 6, 2021 21 hours ago, Chris78 said: Is this a good thing or bad thing for snow prospects? It has 'some' influence on the AO/NAO state, and possible development of HL blocking. Trending negative heading into Fall and winter is considered favorable. How much of a correlation there is seems debatable from what I have read, and some forecasters don't pay much attention to it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted September 6, 2021 Share Posted September 6, 2021 I remember the ECMWF verified pretty good, agrees with the -NAO signal that we seem to have 65/35, 60/40 or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted September 6, 2021 Share Posted September 6, 2021 I could see January as the month with NAOblocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 6, 2021 Share Posted September 6, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted September 6, 2021 Share Posted September 6, 2021 1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck! said: I could see January as the month with NAOblocking. After last year I have a hard time getting excited about blocking lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted September 6, 2021 Share Posted September 6, 2021 I mean, we will have +NAO because that has been default since 2013, but there will be blocking, probably assicioated with peaks in -PNA or +EPO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 6, 2021 Share Posted September 6, 2021 14 minutes ago, dailylurker said: After last year I have a hard time getting excited about blocking lol The glass half full view of last winter is to imagine a +AO/NAO with the Pac pattern the same. Might have seen little to no frozen for the coastal plain for the second year in a row instead of somewhat respectable median snowfall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted September 6, 2021 Share Posted September 6, 2021 27 minutes ago, dailylurker said: After last year I have a hard time getting excited about blocking lol Yeah but like last year think of all the d10 kuchera snowmaps the blocking will produce. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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