40/70 Benchmark Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 On 11/13/2021 at 5:21 PM, WxUSAF said: Nice post which again highlights how we need a NAO ridge to couple with the ENSO favored -WPO for us to have a chance this winter. But if we can get that, we should have some chances for cold and snow. Without it, SE ridge goes on roids. It is basin wide...its just focusing more east with time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It is basin wide...its just focusing more east with time. This might help the back end of winter I believe since there is a delay from ocean to atmosphere. Do you know how long it actually takes to occur, if indeed it focuses more East by early to mid December? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 50 minutes ago, frd said: This might help the back end of winter I believe since there is a delay from ocean to atmosphere. Do you know how long it actually takes to occur, if indeed it focuses more East by early to mid December? 2-3 months....but just watch the VP charts...at the end of the day, the convective forcing needs to move east or nothing matters. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 2-3 months....but just watch the VP charts...at the end of the day, the convective forcing needs to move east or nothing matters. Hi Ray. I went to isotherms website and it's still running. He hasn't done a winter outlook yet. I do have a question. He mentioned that when geomagnetic energy ap is low, it usually promotes a tendency for a -nao. Even when we have a +qbo. Hopefully we have that this winter off and on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 Get this look in our winter months please 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 This too... though the PNA ridge is too far west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 39 minutes ago, yoda said: This too... though the PNA ridge is too far west Too far west is better than too far east. All you get from that is cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Too far west is better than too far east. All you get from that is cold and dry. well i would rather that then warm and dry tbh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 9 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said: Hi Ray. I went to isotherms website and it's still running. He hasn't done a winter outlook yet. I do have a question. He mentioned that when geomagnetic energy ap is low, it usually promotes a tendency for a -nao. Even when we have a +qbo. Hopefully we have that this winter off and on I'm pretty confident that the polar domain will not be much of an issue this season....at least in the DJFM mean. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 1 hour ago, yoda said: This too... though the PNA ridge is too far west Not a problem with that anomalous ridge in the NAO space. Hopefully it ends up more than just model fantasy, and a fixture a month down the road. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 Kind of silly, but we have been running opposite of last year 500mb N. Hemisphere at >75% each month of the last 4(Aug-Nov), continues into Dec1. https://ibb.co/QCfJQ28 https://ibb.co/QnqgC5J https://ibb.co/cDRTQcn https://ibb.co/Trg2KZj https://ibb.co/SVfYRfj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 41 minutes ago, yoda said: well i would rather that then warm and dry tbh To each their own I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 Recently, +PNA Nov / -PNA Dec is a big +AO signal for Jan-Feb https://ibb.co/G3361hQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 43 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Recently, +PNA Nov / -PNA Dec is a big +AO signal for Jan-Feb https://ibb.co/G3361hQ Recently it’s only Nov 15 and you are predicting Jan/Feb off of December data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 Anyway, The La Nina's waning, this is less of a -PNA signal than before. https://ibb.co/TMTyTrJ https://ibb.co/VNqrbxC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 Oh. -PNA cancel then Chuck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 33 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Oh. -PNA cancel then Chuck? You’re still reading his posts? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 56 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You’re still reading his posts? fair point. Change made. Much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 2 hours ago, North Balti Zen said: Oh. -PNA cancel then Chuck? I had the over under at +100dm Aleutian High , maybe +80 now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 8 hours ago, yoda said: Get this look in our winter months please That's a solid pacific / west coast look. I'll take this during prime climo please. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm pretty confident that the polar domain will not be much of an issue this season....at least in the DJFM mean. I know I sound stupid when I say this, but what do you mean by that? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: That's a solid pacific / west coast look. I'll take this during prime climo please. Yeah, believe it or not, Nov's have been +PNA/opp-PNA in La Nina recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 12 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said: I know I sound stupid when I say this, but what do you mean by that? Lol The NAO and AO should at the very least not be significantly positive this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: That's a solid pacific / west coast look. I'll take this during prime climo please. Its okay... I'd like the PNA ridge a bit further east and the NAO ridge further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The NAO and AO should at the very least not be significantly positive this season. Thanks Ray. Definitely dont want to see the spv and tpv couple like some have alluded to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 Doug Kammerer winter forecast: https://www.nbcwashington.com/weather/how-much-snow-to-expect-dougs-2021-22-winter-forecast/2883423/ In total it’s pretty in line with most other winter outlooks with AN temps and BN snow. But details are quite different. He’s going for a very warm snowless December and a colder snowier Jan and Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 21, 2021 Author Share Posted November 21, 2021 Doug Kammerer winter forecast:https://www.nbcwashington.com/weather/how-much-snow-to-expect-dougs-2021-22-winter-forecast/2883423/ In total it’s pretty in line with most other winter outlooks with AN temps and BN snow. But details are quite different. He’s going for a very warm snowless December and a colder snowier Jan and Feb.He is just guessing. His winter outlooks have been horrendous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Dec 4th -PNA in the last 15 years. https://ibb.co/9Ym7zFL https://ibb.co/VjfvXrP We are also going full on +ENSO on the dailies for February or March. Because we have -NAO tendency this year, I think an El Nino next Winter would make 09-10 a good analog. We may blast the Pacific Jet this year though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 I think we are In the favorable two months mostly below average trait DC displays. Not April May or Sept Oct this time. So we got from now until about 1/1/22-1/15 . These lows just wanna go west with some serious cold coming in behind but the miler Bs just don’t work here. 12.5” DCA seems right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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