Winter 2021-22

[mappy]

40 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Graphically - from a design standpoint - it looks "more complete" to not have there be a sudden end to the contours. And in the map drawing software - they probably have to draw over a larger area and then take a zoom shot. The way that current news banners these days have been designed are that you can see behind them. It's just what it is. Short of putting a black box awkwardly over areas they don't want you to see - the assumption is just going to be that a PIT viewer does not see the FOX 5 DC affiliate. I'm sure the PIT market maps bleed into our market as well. 

yeah its because of the zoom extent on the map itself. Pitt shows in view and either they give Pitt a generic color based on how they drew the rest of the map, or they don't give it a color at all and you get weird polygon edges where you decided to stop the colors as I am sure you can't just blend the edge to become nothing.

Seems like a silly thing to argue over (not you), Its just a nature of the extent at which the map it set to. 

[Yeoman]

1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

That's pretty much what I'm saying...why even include Pittsburgh, and an embarrassing call at that, if it's not even in the area. It might look odd to cut it off at the end of their viewing area, but to me that would be better than putting some junk call out for that area. It doesn't make a big deal to me personally, of course...but I'm all about presentation and as a teacher, I would expect a professional to not make such a careless map.

Shouldn't you be teaching at 1pm rather than picking apart a random snowfall guess from some second rate local TV station? There are plenty of other educated guesses out there from actual meteorologists that would be far more worthy of your time. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

My real serious non snarky winter thoughts

preface: The thing about these winter predictions and why I’m pretty jaded towards them and didn’t issue a real winter forecast last year is I feel like I know what we don’t know.  Don’t get me wrong a lot of the people putting them together are incredibly intelligent skilled forecasters and there is excellent science in the process. But the media culture demands they turn that science into a definitive forecast that isn’t realistic. 
 

We can look at all the known pattern influences like enso and QBO and dozens more to get a scope or range of variability the winter pattern is likely to fall within but we also cannot account for the variability within that range. We can’t fully explain why two years with nearly identical pattern drivers ended up with somewhat different results.  Additionally snowfall is a crazy erratic variable. Some luck with 1-2 discreet events is the difference between a god awful snowfall year and a decent or even pretty good one!  Pattern recognition in the fall cannot tell you if you will get unlucky on a few threats and end up with 7” or lucky and get 20”.   
 

Think about 2000. There was a favorable pattern for 10 days that winter. Most of the rest of that winter was garbage. Within that 10 days there were 3 threats. And all 3 hit to some degree across our area. And so it went down as one of the better nina winters. But what if we didn’t have as much luck?  What if the big storm did stay OTS and only the 2 smaller events on either side of it hit. Suddenly that year is bad. Some luck with one event makes or breaks it.  No one right now can say with any certainty how those details will play out. 
 

So I won’t be issuing a traditional winter forecast.  But considering what we do know I feel comfortable saying the following.
 

WRT snowfall. The range of variability this winter is skewed toward the less snowy side. When I look at all winters with a similar set of pattern drivers (SST, QBO, solar, soil, longer scale patterns) we get a range skewed towards less than normal snowfall.  But whether that ends up much below normal like 07/08 or 11/12 or we get lucky like 99/00 or 05/06 or somewhere in between like 17/18 is impossible to say.  It probably comes down to luck and maximizing potential. One thing is we absolutely NEED the NAO to be negative some of the time.   One thing that stuck out in my snowfall study years ago was we had almost no significant snows in a Nina without a -NAO.  
 

A -NAO is helpful in all enso phases but even more so in a Nina. While there are some examples of warning events in neutral and Nina phases without NAO help that is not true in a Nina. To get a significant snow we will need to get lucky during a period of high latitude help.  Whether we end up with 5-10” or 15-20” across the region likely comes down to that. Do we get some periods of blocking and luck into 1-2 storms from it. These won’t be HECS level but one 6-10” storm or two 3-6” storms across the region is all the difference here. 

I am actually leaning a little on the hopeful side on this one. Imo there are signs the NAO may be in a more favorable longer term phase right now.  I do think we get some periods of blocking. The most likely months are December and March.  Not coincidentally the most likely cold months are also Dec and March. 
 

 I know that’s not ideal but January and February aren’t totally hopeless. 2000, 2001, 2006, 2011, and 2021 are all examples of Nina’s where the NAO went negative at some point in January/February. Some worked out. Some didn’t. A chance is all Im asking for at this time. The details which will determine our fate have to be worked out with each discreet synoptic event. 
 

TLDR version:

my snowfall expectation.
 
DC urban corridor: 9-15”

Baltimore urban corridor: 13-19”

NW zones west of the fall line to the mountains: 15-22”

temps averaged above normal but I do think we get some cold shots but when it does get warm it torches so in the end it skews warm.   

Hats off to you for having enough courage to make a prediction. Others will chime in with gripes only. Some that is.

[Kmlwx]

2 hours ago, mappy said:

yeah its because of the zoom extent on the map itself. Pitt shows in view and either they give Pitt a generic color based on how they drew the rest of the map, or they don't give it a color at all and you get weird polygon edges where you decided to stop the colors as I am sure you can't just blend the edge to become nothing.

Seems like a silly thing to argue over (not you), Its just a nature of the extent at which the map it set to. 

I may not be the map expert here...but it sure feels good when I confirm that my thoughts aren't just brain vomit  

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Hats off to you for having enough courage to make a prediction. Others will chime in with gripes only. Some that is.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Hats off to you for having enough courage to make a prediction. Others will chime in with gripes only. Some that is.

Feels like others are also settling around that number(s) for the area as well. In my inexperienced opinion I'd guess the same (since we did get about 13" last year...I was guessing 13-15" myself (we fluked into 18" in 2017-18, lol). Hey I'd take it in a nina...that and a few blasts of some legit cold.

[TugHillMatt]

3 hours ago, Yeoman said:

Shouldn't you be teaching at 1pm rather than picking apart a random snowfall guess from some second rate local TV station? There are plenty of other educated guesses out there from actual meteorologists that would be far more worthy of your time. 

I was on my lunch break. My bad. I should have known better than to comment on the Mid Atlantic forum, where some of you are insufferable jackoffs.

[TugHillMatt]

4 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Graphically - from a design standpoint - it looks "more complete" to not have there be a sudden end to the contours. And in the map drawing software - they probably have to draw over a larger area and then take a zoom shot. The way that current news banners these days have been designed are that you can see behind them. It's just what it is. Short of putting a black box awkwardly over areas they don't want you to see - the assumption is just going to be that a PIT viewer does not see the FOX 5 DC affiliate. I'm sure the PIT market maps bleed into our market as well. 

Good point.

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

I was on my lunch break. My bad. I should have known better than to comment on the Mid Atlantic forum, where many of you are insufferable jackoffs.

Just ignoring him (and several others) works really well. 

[TugHillMatt]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Just ignoring him (and several others) works really well. 

Sure enough. Sad that some of them are incapable of having a conversation outside of their bubble. A couple of the guys have had great responses privately when I asked them about the Deep Creek Lake area. But you post on here and it's assumed "you're arguing" or "don't belong." Now, THAT seems silly.

Anyways, always appreciate you and your openness....and we are very welcoming in the Upstate NY subforum...as you know!

[nw baltimore wx]

43 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

I was on my lunch break. My bad. I should have known better than to comment on the Mid Atlantic forum, where many of you are insufferable jackoffs.

I’ve had that dude on ignore for years.

[TugHillMatt]

7 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I’ve had that dude on ignore for years.

Thanks for the head's up.  It's nice to know there's some solid, kind people on here. I honestly wasn't trying to "argue" or anything. I was just trying to have a discussion with some other weather-passionate people...not get snarky replies. I remember growing up and watching WBAL forecasts and those to me, seemed solid. So to see the maps posted earlier, yeah, I was a bit flummoxed. 

[psuhoffman]

42 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Thanks for the head's up.  It's nice to know there's some solid, kind people on here. I honestly wasn't trying to "argue" or anything. I was just trying to have a discussion with some other weather-passionate people...not get snarky replies. I remember growing up and watching WBAL forecasts and those to me, seemed solid. So to see the maps posted earlier, yeah, I was a bit flummoxed. 

You’re giving him way more thought than anyone in this sub ever does. 

[RIC_WX]

On 11/8/2021 at 4:44 PM, nj2va said:

What are you thinking for the mountains?  Last year I ended up just north of 110" so an average year.  I'm thinking 60-90".

Between warm lakes and a predominant Miller B storm track, I see a lot of chances to score assuming we start and end cold.  As long as January isn't a dreaded pac puke zonal flow (I see this pattern in several analogs), normal wx is plenty cold to still snow in the highlands.

I understand 19-20 was close to a generational low for Garrett and they still managed 50"-60".  I would guess if this repeated itself it falls in the range of 50% of normal.  Not impossible but have to believe we can do better.

I see snow pops in the zones for Saturday-Monday coming up.  Looking forward to getting back up after 3 weeks of work travel.

[nj2va]

2 hours ago, RIC_WX said:

Between warm lakes and a predominant Miller B storm track, I see a lot of chances to score assuming we start and end cold.  As long as January isn't a dreaded pac puke zonal flow (I see this pattern in several analogs), normal wx is plenty cold to still snow in the highlands.

I understand 19-20 was close to a generational low for Garrett and they still managed 50"-60".  I would guess if this repeated itself it falls in the range of 50% of normal.  Not impossible but have to believe we can do better.

I see snow pops in the zones for Saturday-Monday coming up.  Looking forward to getting back up after 3 weeks of work travel.

Yeah, 19-20 was pretty terrible for Garrett county standards….think I finished somewhere in the low 60s.  I’m hopeful that its a decent winter so Wisp can have another good year.  We’re heading back up next weekend (I think).  Hope you see some snow!

[WxUSAF]

CWG outlook out. Not as pessimistic as I think it could be. I’d take it for sure.

 

[H2O]

It still sucks.  But its how winters will be because stuff is changing

[40/70 Benchmark]

41 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

CWG outlook out. Not as pessimistic as I think it could be. I’d take it for sure.

 

Very much in line with my own thoughts, except for the fact that I have January and February flipped.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, RIC_WX said:

Between warm lakes and a predominant Miller B storm track, I see a lot of chances to score assuming we start and end cold.  As long as January isn't a dreaded pac puke zonal flow (I see this pattern in several analogs), normal wx is plenty cold to still snow in the highlands.

I understand 19-20 was close to a generational low for Garrett and they still managed 50"-60".  I would guess if this repeated itself it falls in the range of 50% of normal.  Not impossible but have to believe we can do better.

I see snow pops in the zones for Saturday-Monday coming up.  Looking forward to getting back up after 3 weeks of work travel.

Hopefully I'm wrong lol

[StormchaserChuck!]

Nice write up on the weather side, Ray. If I had more time I would go through it. I hadn't realized the solar activity had jumped. 

[CAPE]

Latest CFS runs have been looking meh for December, but January 

[Eskimo Joe]

Do we have anything favorable in our corner this autumn or are we staring down another screw job?

[StormchaserChuck!]

January looks to be cold, -AO/-NAO wave. 

[Eskimo Joe]

22 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

January looks to be cold, -AO/-NAO wave. 

Hope so. I can do normal temps/below normal snowfall. But torching all winter is a layer of hell in itself.

[StormchaserChuck!]

I wouldn't be surprised if the -NAO flares with an equal -PNA/+EPO Pacific for the 20th straight time. This, after 34 straight Winter months of +NAO (now -NAO=+EPO/-PNA)

[Mr. Kevin]

59 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

I wouldn't be surprised if the -NAO flares with an equal -PNA/+EPO Pacific for the 20th straight time. This, after 34 straight Winter months of +NAO (now -NAO=+EPO/-PNA)

Should add -AO buddy

[yoda]

WUSA9 Winter Forecast

https://www.wusa9.com/article/weather/winter-weather-forecast-six-years-since-last-blizzard-could-we-see-one-this-winter/65-ef07d760-701e-49f0-8b0d-1ebf7d35fc9c

[Prestige Worldwide]

 

[frd]

Any coupling ?

 

 

[WxUSAF]

Nice post which again highlights how we need a NAO ridge to couple with the ENSO favored -WPO for us to have a chance this winter. But if we can get that, we should have some chances for cold and snow. Without it, SE ridge goes on roids.