Winter 2021-22

[CAPE]

On 11/4/2021 at 4:41 PM, CAPE said:

Judah apparently isn't giving up. Does he realize October is in the rear view mirror? 

 

Poor Judah. 

 

[yoda]

Ray ( @40/70 Benchmark ) winter outlook --

Looks like December and mid Feb into March are our chances

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, frd said:

 

Seasonal versus the drivers.  

 

 

 

 

Not worried about it.

[frd]

 

Looking interesting 

 

 

[frd]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not worried about it.

Latest data supports a potentially colder December. 

Good luck with your forecast. A cold holiday period would be great, some snow would make it even better !  

[psuhoffman]

19 hours ago, mattie g said:

2010-2011 was kind of meh, but I wouldn't kick it out of bed.

2013-2014 was honestly pretty great, even if I'm not a big fan of backloaded winters.

I’d roll the dice with a dec 2010 pattern again and hope for a little more luck. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I’d roll the dice with a dec 2010 pattern again and hope for a little more luck. 

To this day I don't think 2010 was bad luck as much as it's just what ninas do with nor'easters...it's almost as if they meteorologically CAN'T form south enough due to the NS nina stuff...(unless you get anomalous blocking like 95/96). So if modeling shows a nor'easter during a nina...don't believe it, lol At least in the other ENSO states you MAY have a little more room!

[MillvilleWx]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I’d roll the dice with a dec 2010 pattern again and hope for a little more luck. 

Literally 6-12 hrs sooner on the 500mb closing off or 150 miles further west on the SLP track and we'd have been singing zippity dooda with that one. It was near miss that haunts us, but it was stupid close

[frd]

 

Very interesting descending QBO numbers so far.  Some analogs related to this would lead to a cold, and potentially stormy December in the East. 

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

To this day I don't think 2010 was bad luck as much as it's just what ninas do with nor'easters...it's almost as if they meteorologically CAN'T form south enough due to the NS nina stuff...(unless you get anomalous blocking like 95/96). So if modeling shows a nor'easter during a nina...don't believe it, lol At least in the other ENSO states you MAY have a little more room!

That storm wasn’t a typical Nina miller b screw job. It was a miller A. Eastern NC and southeast VA got hit. It was a southern stream system. But it went through a weird late phase with the NS and the upper low closed off a little too late. 
 

If what you said above was 100% set in stone we might as well just give up. It does snow sometimes in a Nina. We have had decent coastal snowstorms in a Nina.  February last year was decent. March 18.  January 11.  March 09,  February 06, January 2000, March 99, 96!  It can happen and getting a pattern like Dec 2010 would increase the odds. 

[psuhoffman]

Not all ninos are good. Not all Nina’s are bad. If I had to bet I would go conservative. There are a lot of negative factors. But there is also a lot of chaos we can’t account for in this game.  I’m not sure how much enso is driving things lately. The more I learn the less I know.  While I’m pessimistic I’ve by no means given up on snow this winter.  It wouldn’t shock me if we get decent snowfall somehow.   

[Maestrobjwa]

32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Not all ninos are good. Not all Nina’s are bad. If I had to bet I would go conservative. There are a lot of negative factors. But there is also a lot of chaos we can’t account for in this game.  I’m not sure how much enso is driving things lately. The more I learn the less I know.  While I’m pessimistic I’ve by no means given up on snow this winter.  It wouldn’t shock me if we get decent snowfall somehow.   

All ninos aren't good...I just see them as less hostile. So like if, say we've got a 40% shot in other ensos...it's like 10% in ninas based on history alone and the lack of a SS. Now I wouldn't be surprised if the season total ends up at median or even average like 2018 did...because we've seen that. We can stack 2 inchers, lol But if Feb 06' or Jan 00' happens again (those were seriously ninas? Were they weak? Will look that up. Had no idea, lol)....at least it would break the drought!

[CAPE]

34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That storm wasn’t a typical Nina miller b screw job. It was a miller A. Eastern NC and southeast VA got hit. It was a southern stream system. But it went through a weird late phase with the NS and the upper low closed off a little too late. 
 

If what you said above was 100% set in stone we might as well just give up. It does snow sometimes in a Nina. We have had decent coastal snowstorms in a Nina.  February last year was decent. March 18.  January 11.  March 09,  February 06, January 2000, March 99, 96!  It can happen and getting a pattern like Dec 2010 would increase the odds. 

There was some decent snow as close as my yard- I was in Baltimore that day for a family thing and drove home into the gradient, from next to nothing to light snow to moderate snow. Was a modest 5" event here but just a bit further east in DE it was 8-10". It was a really close miss for DCA-BWI.

[osfan24]

On 11/5/2021 at 2:45 PM, mattie g said:

2010-2011 was kind of meh, but I wouldn't kick it out of bed.

2013-2014 was honestly pretty great, even if I'm not a big fan of backloaded winters.

2013-2014 was amazing. Most wall-to-wall winter I can remember experiencing. Very cold day after day and above average snowfall. 09-10 will always be king in snowfall but 13-14 was true deep winter and never really relented.

[WxWatcher007]

12 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

2013-2014 was amazing. Most wall-to-wall winter I can remember experiencing. Very cold day after day and above average snowfall. 09-10 will always be king in snowfall but 13-14 was true deep winter and never really relented.

Probably my favorite winter ever and that includes the ones I had in SNE during my childhood. So much fun. 

[George001]

5 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

To this day I don't think 2010 was bad luck as much as it's just what ninas do with nor'easters...it's almost as if they meteorologically CAN'T form south enough due to the NS nina stuff...(unless you get anomalous blocking like 95/96). So if modeling shows a nor'easter during a nina...don't believe it, lol At least in the other ENSO states you MAY have a little more room!

Yeah ninas are better for NYC north generally. In the winter of 2010-2011, the la nina was quite strong at -1.6 degrees Celsius. In 1995-1996 however, the La Niña only peaked at -1 degrees Celsius. In weaker ninas it seems like the pattern isn’t as hostile as stronger ones in the mid Atlantic, though still not as favorable as a nino for you guys.

[Eskimo Joe]

20 hours ago, frd said:

 

Very interesting descending QBO numbers so far.  Some analogs related to this would lead to a cold, and potentially stormy December in the East. 

I just don't want to torch this winter. 65 and bad air quality on Christmas is just terrible.

[StormchaserChuck!]

My interpretation is that we feel a lot different going into the Winter vs the last few years, even last year. I think we have more legit -NAO shot this Winter, legitimately. +PNA now is going to swing back to crazy -PNA/+EPO for a lot of the Winter. 

[Eskimo Joe]

On 11/6/2021 at 3:58 PM, osfan24 said:

2013-2014 was amazing. Most wall-to-wall winter I can remember experiencing. Very cold day after day and above average snowfall. 09-10 will always be king in snowfall but 13-14 was true deep winter and never really relented.

Was living in New Salem, PA at the time and commuting to Gaithersburg for work. The winter of 13-14 killed my '99 Outback (stopped cranking at 4am despite a new battery, starter, and alternator) and was the only winter where it was so cold that work and home were basically the same temperature in the morning.

Could you imagine a winter with 09-10 level snow and 13-14 level temps? Truly would be epic.

[StormchaserChuck!]

13-14 had that healthy Westcoast/east Pacific ridge connecting up. https://ibb.co/3Tp7vmT. Unless you think northern CA is going to be in the 50s in January, I'd stay away from that analog. 

[psuhoffman]

32 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Yeah, when this retrogrades you usually have a +EPO take shape

https://ibb.co/26Z9GS0

 

5 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

This 12z 384hr GFS is showing I think that a -PNA is going to pop up in the 20-25+ day range. 

https://ibb.co/Q6x4bS5

 

On 11/5/2021 at 12:56 PM, StormchaserChuck! said:

Oct NAO analogs https://ibb.co/nBkCyPw

 

On 11/4/2021 at 3:50 PM, StormchaserChuck! said:

I think the only reason 12z GFS ensembles have -WPO/-EPO Nov 13th on, is because of QBO analogs. (to Dec 15th)

 

On 11/4/2021 at 9:55 AM, StormchaserChuck! said:

One heck of an +AO on 15-day models.. those were my analogs for the Winter, +AO/+EPO

 

On 10/30/2021 at 10:03 AM, StormchaserChuck! said:

Yeah, the whole pattern is starting to look like a west-based -PNA. I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes strong/centralized in the 20-25day range. 

 

On 10/30/2021 at 11:08 PM, StormchaserChuck! said:

We went +ENSO in 79-80, for 3 years, then 90-91 for 7 years. 01-02 we kind of went +ENSO. 

 

6 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

My interpretation is that we feel a lot different going into the Winter vs the last few years, even last year. I think we have more legit -NAO shot this Winter, legitimately. +PNA now is going to swing back to crazy -PNA/+EPO for a lot of the Winter. 

 

On 11/5/2021 at 1:26 PM, StormchaserChuck! said:

Oct NAO analogs, an expanded set 

(Dec-Mar) https://ibb.co/nf09vff

Edit: another OctNAO analog composite- 1970s, first one was 1980 to now

https://ibb.co/vHTYgfB look at how the Pacific used to get trumped.  1950shttps://ibb.co/1d4H5kf

 

On 11/5/2021 at 1:07 PM, StormchaserChuck! said:

I was saying 2005/2006 was a good Winter analog

Oct NAO https://ibb.co/nCQZ76t

Check out Nov https://ibb.co/VBV8Xh8 really close to what's being modeled now https://ibb.co/xqdyM4k

Feb-maybe we'll have a good -NAO in jan or feb

 

 

On 11/4/2021 at 9:55 AM, StormchaserChuck! said:

One heck of an +AO on 15-day models.. those were my analogs +AO/+EPO

 

On 11/2/2021 at 10:58 AM, StormchaserChuck! said:

Nice +PNA today, but we don't need the PNA in November, we need -NAO and after today it goes away, for it looks like 2 weeks.

Oct -NAO, followed by Nov +NAO is followed by +NAO Winter 68% of the time (-58% Oct) (+62% Nov)

Anyway, I feel that +PNA this November will just weigh on potential energy to amplify Dec-Mar -PNA

 

On 11/1/2021 at 4:01 PM, StormchaserChuck! said:

I also like how it's 80* when we have our first two +PNA-look days since like July. 

 

On 11/1/2021 at 3:43 PM, StormchaserChuck! said:

Whoa, that is a strong +AO/NAO days 4-11. 

 

On 10/31/2021 at 11:08 PM, StormchaserChuck! said:

I'll say it right now.. I don't like this movement away from -NAO in models over the last few days. It could be like 2018 if we don't hit it hard all the time, I think.Feels like 2018

 

On 10/30/2021 at 1:34 PM, StormchaserChuck! said:

I think the Hadley Cell's just a little north. You can get GOA low's/Aleutian Low's, but not moderate-deep +PNA's. I also wonder if this Winter will be +EPO.. I did a study that had Oct-Nov hurricanes int he Atlantic at 7,7,6,7,(+EPO) vs 2,3 opposite, and yet there have been 0 so far. 

 

On 10/30/2021 at 12:39 PM, StormchaserChuck! said:

lol.. I was talking about how it's going to be 6th straight year of -PNA after Strong El Nino.. kind of presupposing future, I guess. It's a trend that started around 2000, that I really want to learn about. 

 

On 10/30/2021 at 10:49 AM, StormchaserChuck! said:

WXUSAF loves to delete my posts. 

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Awesome post. I, for one, have had enough of this shit.

[anotherman]

 

You forgot “shut up Chuck.”

[Chris78]

I heard a rumor we are going to have a 

- pna this winter. Any truth to this?

[CentralVaNATS]

Fox 5 winter outlook. I thought first that there was going to be a coastal sometime this week. But it's for the entire season

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[SnowenOutThere]

That is straight up sad 

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 hours ago, CentralVaNATS said:

Fox 5 winter outlook. I thought first that there was going to be a coastal sometime this week. But it's for the entire season

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That map is awful

[Yeoman]

10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That map is awful

Sue Palka drew the numbers out of a hat at the recent Fox 5 happy hour.. so no less likely than any other random seasonal guesscast you'll find, including NWS..

[Eskimo Joe]

4 hours ago, CentralVaNATS said:

Fox 5 winter outlook. I thought first that there was going to be a coastal sometime this week. But it's for the entire season

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The gradients don't event match up. Loudoun County somewhere between 5" and 20".

[chris21]

4 hours ago, CentralVaNATS said:

Fox 5 winter outlook. I thought first that there was going to be a coastal sometime this week. But it's for the entire season

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That would be the lowest all time snowfall total for Davis, WV by at least 40 inches.  Extremely bold call there. Some of Tucker County is in the 10-20 inch zone.