mappy Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 2 hours ago, mappy said: You need to change that to a snow gun. big snows this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 48 minutes ago, ldub23 said: You need to change that to a snow gun. big snows this winter. Are you doing like...opposite of what you do in the tropical thread? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 8 hours ago, CAPE said: New edition of CanSIPS for December. At least what little cold there is would be close by. That look in the E Pacific might allow for some delivery. CFS politely agrees 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 On 10/30/2021 at 12:40 AM, Cobalt said: Strength wise the la ninas are similar (at least to this point, that could change as we get to Dec and Jan), but the structure for this one is much more favorable. It’s more basin wide vs central based, which is a good sign for a more favorable pacific with less troughing in the west. The pacific blob is in a bad location like that year, but the polar vortex is forecast on the models to be weak. I truly believe this winter will be a lot better than 2011-2012, just gotta get North Atlantic blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 1 hour ago, Cobalt said: CFS politely agrees It looked more like the CanSIPS last time I checked. This is a better look up top and gets the lower heights further south. Ofc it changes constantly lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 Whoa, that is a strong +AO/NAO days 4-11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 2 hours ago, Cobalt said: CFS politely agrees The only disagreement is the NAM state. CFS is showing a -AO/NAO, cansips not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 I also like how it's 80* when we have our first two +PNA-look days since like July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 Nice +PNA today, but we don't need the PNA in November, we need -NAO and after today it goes away, for it looks like 2 weeks. Oct -NAO, followed by Nov +NAO is followed by +NAO Winter 68% of the time (-58% Oct) (+62% Nov) Anyway, I feel that +PNA this November will just weigh on potential energy to amplify Dec-Mar -PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: The strat will save us… off to a great start lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 51 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The strat will save us… off to a great start lol. Lol yes. But … it’s November 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 One heck of an +AO on 15-day models.. those were my analogs +AO/+EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 Snow cover, both in Eurasian and North America, look pathetic. If you thought last winter had a rough start this looks even worse. As HM mentioned things are looking ZZZ..... in the snow cover department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 55 minutes ago, frd said: Snow cover, both in Eurasian and North America, look pathetic. If you thought last winter had a rough start this looks even worse. As HM mentioned things are looking ZZZ..... in the snow cover department. There's always two sides to a coin. Arctic sea ice is at it's highest extent since 2015 and is higher than 2007, 2011, and 2012 as well. Snowcover has proven itself about as useful as tarot card reading imo 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 PV getting stronger now before a possible weakening later in the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 5 hours ago, frd said: Snow cover, both in Eurasian and North America, look pathetic. If you thought last winter had a rough start this looks even worse. As HM mentioned things are looking ZZZ..... in the snow cover department. Judah apparently isn't giving up. Does he realize October is in the rear view mirror? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 Ya gotta love the CFS. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 I think we are definitely getting snow in December. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 Somewhat zonal, but I’ve seen far worse longwave patterns. That temp map is lol though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: Somewhat zonal, but I’ve seen far worse longwave patterns. That temp map is lol though. If you ignore the height anomalies, it looks pretty good. I mean that looks like a +PNA/-EPO looking at the contours. Thus the useless nature of tools like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 33 minutes ago, CAPE said: Ya gotta love the CFS. What a useless model. Flips every day. Best skill seems to be the last 6 days of the month for the month ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 6 minutes ago, frd said: What a useless model. Flips every day. Best skill seems to be the last 6 days of the month for the month ahead. We can use the GEFS at that point lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 Time for some optimism 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 This is where I hope we get a little bit of our standard can kicking. A great winter pattern is pretty useless Nov 20-30 unless you dig 35-40F rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 These dudes are so hyperbolic lol. Sure it might snow in the GL, interior NE, and locally the mountains of WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 I was saying 2005/2006 was a good Winter analog Oct NAO https://ibb.co/nCQZ76t Check out Nov https://ibb.co/VBV8Xh8 really close to what's being modeled now https://ibb.co/xqdyM4k Feb-maybe we'll have a good -NAO in jan or feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 Oct NAO analogs, an expanded set (Dec-Mar) https://ibb.co/nf09vff Edit: another OctNAO analog composite- 1970s, first one was 1980 to now https://ibb.co/vHTYgfB look at how the Pacific used to get trumped. 1950shttps://ibb.co/1d4H5kf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 December 2010 and 2013 would be quite acceptable. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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