StormchaserChuck! Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 95-96 was a La Nina (not in the subsurface) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 2 hours ago, Rvarookie said: No scientific evidence but this has to be our year right? Your guess is as good as Chucks. 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 It all boils down to formidable blocking this year. Weak mod nina/ neg pdo. Gotta have blocking . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 Wow, that’s a lot less than I would have guessed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 10 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Wow, that’s a lot less than I would have guessed. It seems to imply that unless you live along the gulf coast it doesn't really matter, at least not for us. I have a good feeling about this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 I really liked 93-94, too. A lot of flurry storms. Same thing in 94-95, 92-93, 91-92.. 2-4" powdery clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 Page cut out ro something. My bad, after March '93 it was a loss of interest. 90-91, 91-92, 92-93 were all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 I'm feeling shades of 2018.. we are going to hit 45days of -NAO right before it gets cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 It also feels a lot like 2006. https://ibb.co/N7vkgTs https://ibb.co/4dYRk5q into -NAO, I think https://ibb.co/hZcHQ2x Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 Very interesting (albeit pessimistic) thread, but I can't say that I don't agree with the ideas thrown out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 As usual, many will romanticize the idea of a cold and snowy December, which rarely happens. And also as usual, what cold/snow we do get will likely occur later on- the typical backloaded MA winter. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 With the skyrocketing home heating prices, I wouldn’t mind a mild winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 51 minutes ago, nj2va said: With the skyrocketing home heating prices, I wouldn’t mind a mild winter. Amen to that brother I just locked into a year contract at $3.08 a gallon compared to last year which was $2.25 a gallon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 3 hours ago, CAPE said: As usual, many will romanticize the idea of a cold and snowy December, which rarely happens. And also as usual, what cold/snow we do get will likely occur later on- the typical backloaded MA winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 10 hours ago, nj2va said: With the skyrocketing home heating prices, I wouldn’t mind a mild winter. 00, 05, 09, 02... minus 08, 01. I'll take it.. '97 had increasing prices, but that easily could have been a good Winter.. alot of -NAO potential in '97 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 It starts https://ibb.co/rdbN76n Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 My best analog is 20-21, although maybe the February cold happens in January (with -PNA/+EPO favored during -NAO in January) I also like 10-11, 11-12, 08-09, 07-08 (It's too bad we didn't do El Nino this Winter, for testing purposes) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 2 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said: My best analog is 20-21, although maybe the February cold happens in January (with -PNA/+EPO favored during -NAO in January) I also like 10-11, 11-12, 08-09, 07-08 (It's too bad we didn't do El Nino this Winter, for testing purposes) 4 of your 5 analogs are from a 5 year period…and it would be pretty hard to use those to make any substantive forecast. 07-08 and 11-12 were very similar. And 08-09, 10-11, 20-21 all bore similarity. But those two groups of Nina’s bore little resemblance with each other other than they were all below normal snowfall. But that’s kinda a given and probably should be the forecast any year since ~75% are below normal. But one group was very warm with a dominant southeast east ridge all winter and no real hope of frozen. The other group was much colder with a lot of teases but still as typical on a Nina not much payoff in terms of snow. We know a Nina will VERY likely have below avg snow but in terms of deciding if it will be the colder v warmer type those analogs are useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 We're losing the arctic, there's just no other way to put it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: We're losing the arctic, there's just no other way to put it That's interesting because I read a tweet the other day that mentioned the artic sea ice had rapidly increased for October 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: We're losing the arctic, there's just no other way to put iT You only realized that now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 I still like a +EPO/+AO/-PNA predominant Winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 2 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said: I still like a +EPO/+AO/-PNA predominant Winter. There’s a revelation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 2 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said: I still like a +EPO/+AO/-PNA predominant Winter. You need to stop focusing so much on the PNA phase and pay more attention to the TNH. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 That seems to pop up before December 21st, sometimes to Jan1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 Cold wind off of South America, 20 analogs https://ibb.co/xjmJKtw 2 years later it's a strong El Nino signal! https://ibb.co/0ZLs4T9 I diversified, including Strong Nino's of 72 and 65 as(neg-ENSO), and many Neutral analogs https://ibb.co/R9Sk75d It's still -PNA, alot Through next July https://ibb.co/qChknGG -QBO <-15 right now is 10-3, 10/13 chance of being negative two years later,23-24,(which is strong -NAO/good Winter signal) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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