Winter 2021-22

[Stormfly]

Well if we have good cold with zero precip there's always this!

 

If you want to get serious making snow and have a firefighting supply available (high flow rate well, retention pond, et-al) and permission to use it you can make bonafide amounts like ski resorts do!

[FPizz]

That midlo?   

[Mr. Kevin]

18 hours ago, raindancewx said:

There are some mixed signals going into this winter. More than last year in some ways.

The lowest Arctic sea ice extents in September correlate pretty well since the data starts to the biggest +WPO winters. That's a horrible/strong warm signal for most of Canada and the eastern US. But with more sea-ice extent this September v. 2020 you can already see the WPO behaving differently. It was very negative last October (a very cold signal for the Plains), while the temperature profile on the CFS is almost ideal positive (of course the CFS is terrible at predicting October I find). Generally you want upper level low pressure (blue) by 180W, 60N to be north of upper level high pressure (red) by 180W, 30N to get the +WPO sign from eyeballing it. WPO tends to not flip super often. So +WPO October is usually a cold signal for the West in Nov-Dec, a wet signal in the Plains in November, and a warm signal for the east through at least December.

You can see what last year looked like when it was negative.

For what it's worth, you're not really "supposed" to get huge +WPO readings with La Nina - last year was the first to have it so consistently positive since 1950 (only La Nina over +1.00 in Dec-Feb). Part of why I liked 2007-08 is it was the strongest recent La Nina with pretty consistently positive WPO readings. I think Joe Bastardi and his crew expect the WPO to go negative in December and that's part of why they expect a colder outcome than I do for the East. Some of the analogs I have do show that, but not the recent years.

So do you expect the wpo overall to be more negative this winter compared to last winter? Like you mentioned, it was negative in October and then it flipped to positive for rest of winter. If we are going to have a -pdo, we dont want a pronounced laniña of any kind this winter. Correct? In my area, other than about a week to 10 days in February, it really wasn't cold. I think the -nao we had was too much east based

[Maestrobjwa]

19 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes ouch but that’s kinda been the trend/ratio recently.  DC has not benefited from good winters in Philly as often recently as historically. 

And that would kinda be a Nina normal, wouldn't it? Miller B train, lol 

[Maestrobjwa]

But seriously though...I never thought we'd see a stretch where it would be this hard for Baltimore to get to 5 inches...I mean ya used to think that was a basic achievable thing every few years! But it'll be 6 this January barring anything in December...one 5 incher this winter would kinda be a winner by that standard, haha

[SnowenOutThere]

20 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

20-26” in Philly and 7-11” for DC? Ouch

Man, imagine the model snow 5 days out though. 

[Eskimo Joe]

On 9/29/2021 at 12:20 PM, psuhoffman said:

My thoughts just glancing at that were “whatever benefit in the enso region is more than offset by the degradation in the north PAC”. 

Agreed. Without at least a neutral PAC, we're kind of screwed.

On 9/29/2021 at 12:40 PM, WxUSAF said:

Yeah. Even if we have high latitude blocking, it’s going to be fighting against a hostile PAC. That’s a losing battle for us more often than not.

What was the PDO/PNA in 1995-1996 and 2009-2010?

[Cobalt]

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

But seriously though...I never thought we'd see a stretch where it would be this hard for Baltimore to get to 5 inches...I mean ya used to think that was a basic achievable thing every few years! But it'll be 6 this January barring anything in December...one 5 incher this winter would kinda be a winner by that standard, haha

Wasnt Jan 2019 a 5 inch event for Baltimore?

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Wasnt Jan 2019 a 5 inch event for Baltimore?

Nope! 4.8"...LOL That was a troll job that time!

[raindancewx]

PDO was positive in both 1995-96 for Nov-Apr and 2009-10. It was +0.59 in January 1996 with the blizzard.

https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO

3 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said:

So do you expect the wpo overall to be more negative this winter compared to last winter? Like you mentioned, it was negative in October and then it flipped to positive for rest of winter. If we are going to have a -pdo, we dont want a pronounced laniña of any kind this winter. Correct? In my area, other than about a week to 10 days in February, it really wasn't cold. I think the -nao we had was too much east based

I do think it will be more negative. But more "weakly positive" than truly negative. October in my analogs was a split decision: 2017 and 1961 had +WPO, 2001 and 2020 had -WPO conditions, with 1974 sort of near normal. If you blend 1961, 2017 (x2 each) with 1974 and then add a degree for how old those years are, it does look pretty similar to October on the CFS. Do want to see the Canadian, it's usually better. For what it's worth, all five of the years I like have the WPO positive in November. We'll see how that goes.

It's probably not going to be as active in the late hurricane season without cold dumping into the Plains / Gulf like if the WPO is negative in October. The ACE was pretty high in 2001 & 2020 late - 46 & 75 respectively (22 is average), while the others are lower - 1961 (51.5), 1974 (2.6), 2017 (20.5). I'm expecting 30-40 from 10/1-end of season.

You guys want 35+ ACE after 10/1 to top 150 for the season. That's a good snow signal for the NE in La Ninas.

[WxUSAF]

Woof

 

[Jebman]

18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Woof

 

What you need, is a Bob FACE, a really yuge FACE, because of the severe cold and snowy winter inbound for the Mid Atlantic Region.

You guys will be crawlin out of windows because of deep snow drifted hard up against your doors, Day After Tomorrow style, all the while sayin The Jebman said this would happen!

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Woof

 

Why do folks keep using that model? Haha (worse this Twitter is treating it like gospel, lol)

[IUsedToHateCold]

So I've read this thread every year for 7 or 8 years now. I've come to conclude that the upcoming winter will be: 

[Jebman]

3 hours ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

So I've read this thread every year for 7 or 8 years now. I've come to conclude that the upcoming winter will be: 

If you set and grip the dice correctly - Mid Atlantic will get shellacked right into an Ice Age.

[Stormfly]

8 hours ago, Jebman said:

If you set and grip the dice correctly - Mid Atlantic will get shellacked right into an Ice Age.

Probably save over $20 in tolls and gas driving from Bush River to Cape Charles, straight down the Bay.  And what a view!

[Heisy]

14 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Woof

 

Nice, the warmer the forecast the colder the winter.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[frd]

 

At least we are not off to the races

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said:

So do you expect the wpo overall to be more negative this winter compared to last winter? Like you mentioned, it was negative in October and then it flipped to positive for rest of winter. If we are going to have a -pdo, we dont want a pronounced laniña of any kind this winter. Correct? In my area, other than about a week to 10 days in February, it really wasn't cold. I think the -nao we had was too much east based

In order for the NAO to promote cold, there needs to be cold air around....-NAO is not a source. Its like a lid on the cap, so to speak...it prevents the cold from being eradicating and retards its departure once in place. It does help to bleed cold air in from the north, but primarily due to the AO component. A +EPO-/-NAO will keep the NE in the game for snow because you can get some conducive tracks, but its not a frigid pattern.

Bottom line is that if you want cold, keep the EPO negative.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 9/29/2021 at 12:40 PM, WxUSAF said:

Yeah. Even if we have high latitude blocking, it’s going to be fighting against a hostile PAC. That’s a losing battle for us more often than not.

I think it takes a high-end winter off of the table for you guys, but you could still pull a 2010-2011 type season in which you do well, though still looking over your shoulder and grimacing at NE. But hey, at least the Pats suck now lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 9/29/2021 at 12:56 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

So...how many consecutive years before we talk about this being a mainstay? I mean I'm wondering about history here...any records about the most consecutive years with a hostile PAC? (Did that happen in the 70s?)

The 1960's were predominately -PDO/-NAO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 9/28/2021 at 12:48 PM, frd said:

Exactly,  remember last winter, everyone gung-ho about blocking that finally was in real-time. And also rather robust.  

Guess what, Canadian 10 temp means where very warm, and depite the NW flow we had very little meaningful cold to trigger baroclinic feedback/storms and also no deep cold that would be hard to scour out. 

We need arctic cold in my opinion combined with blocking. Some fear this combo leading to cold and dry.  I actually like to play that card because we may score here in the low lands. 

    

 

 

Its good provided that we get a mechanism in the n PAC to  reposition the cold in AK southward...otherwise, cold in AK is 2001-2002, 2011-2012. lol

[GramaxRefugee]

21 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said:

So do you expect the wpo overall to be more negative this winter compared to last winter? Like you mentioned, it was negative in October and then it flipped to positive for rest of winter. If we are going to have a -pdo, we dont want a pronounced laniña of any kind this winter. Correct? In my area, other than about a week to 10 days in February, it really wasn't cold. I think the -nao we had was too much east based

If your listed location is still Arkansas....You have a rather bland way of referring to the 4th coldest February on record, coldest since 1978, monthly departure -10f +/- depending on exact station.
Not complaining, (especially with all the hype that runs around these days). But, should be considered for the sake of our analysis.

https://www.weather.gov/lzk/clmfeb2021b.htm

[CAPE]

October edition of the CanSIPS.

[CAPE]

Latest CFS runs aren't awful at h5. Suggestive of favorable HL and cold within reach at times. 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The 1960's were predominately -PDO/-NAO.

For clarification...the -PDO is the hostile PAC, right?

[StormchaserChuck!]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

October edition of the CanSIPS.

Wow, yeah. I expect February to especially be -PNA, with a 99% chance. We may get +PNA around 2-21 though.

[Maestrobjwa]

On 9/28/2021 at 12:48 PM, frd said:

We need arctic cold in my opinion combined with blocking. Some fear this combo leading to cold and dry.  I actually like to play that card because we may score here in the low lands. 

This. At this point I'd rather risk cold and dry...at least it would show we can still have a cold source!

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

For clarification...the -PDO is the hostile PAC, right?

Yea, especially down there...we can get away with it in NE. But +EPO sucks for everyone.