Winter 2021-22

[Eskimo Joe]

6 hours ago, frd said:

Things warming faster and faster. 

Enjoy snow while it lasts.

[StormchaserChuck!]

Big -PNA, huge ridge through October 10, starting Sept. 28

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

My Winter Outlook for DC area 2021-22

Temps:-0.5 to -2.5.

Snowfall:12-15”

i don’t have a monthly order because too much conflict.

Analog years 1979-80, 1992-93, 2010-11

interesting to note 1979 had a record setting snow around 10/10 so let’s see if we get a cold precip event.  1993 had probably the biggest weather event ever around here March 1993.  We dont give the credit for huge single events like that but do apply 5” credit

We deemphasize ENSO as it’s erratic and it always come down to the cold air source for DC.  We mostly take occurrent events from March  into Sept and look for matching patterns or events and forecast forward.

I remember about 3/4 years ago Isotherm and me both predicted a -5 February and it hit and although I don’t say Feb I do think we have one -4/-5 month.

Thats it and let us know what your outlook is. 

 

 

 

 

 

Its def. erratic if you only consider phase/intensity and not structure (ie placement of strongest anomalies and attendant convective forcing scheme). I think that clears up alot, though obviously still not perfect. Anyway, its beneficial that we have so many different methodologies.

[StormchaserChuck!]

Would love to see KA's outlook

[MN Transplant]

On 9/24/2021 at 3:01 PM, WEATHER53 said:

My Winter Outlook for DC area 2021-22

Temps:-0.5 to -2.5.

Snowfall:12-15”

i don’t have a monthly order because too much conflict.

Analog years 1979-80, 1992-93, 2010-11

interesting to note 1979 had a record setting snow around 10/10 so let’s see if we get a cold precip event.  1993 had probably the biggest weather event ever around here March 1993.  We dont give the credit for huge single events like that but do apply 5” credit

We deemphasize ENSO as it’s erratic and it always come down to the cold air source for DC.  We mostly take occurrent events from March  into Sept and look for matching patterns or events and forecast forward.

I remember about 3/4 years ago Isotherm and me both predicted a -5 February and it hit and although I don’t say Feb I do think we have one -4/-5 month.

Thats it and let us know what your outlook is. 

 

 

 

 

 

The last winter that fell in that temperature range at DCA was 13-14.

[Maestrobjwa]

28 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

The last winter that fell in that temperature range at DCA was 13-14.

Man we haven't had a positive analog in years, lol Anybody ever notice that the last 4-5 years the only analogs discussed are bad/mediocre years? Would like a good analog for a change...13-14 would be nice 

[StormchaserChuck!]

Slowly creeping up has been this -NAO at the turn of the month here

Analogs 

[StormchaserChuck!]

PDO analogs

[frd]

 

Nice to see that the highest skill for December is going for the weakest 100 mb vortex.  Of course,  in our climo even with a weakened vortex and blocking in the AO and even the NAO regions does not insure winter weather in these parts in early to mid December. But, I imagine that might be a plus for December holiday spirits and such, regardless.   

As many know here, we really need a true source of arctic air to tap to achieve snowfall in December away from psu-land. Keep an eye on the temps in SE Canada during late November for a clue to snow prospects here in early to mid December.    

 

[StormchaserChuck!]

2018 kind of blew that away. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

The last few Christmas' have been -NAO.

[StormchaserChuck!]

1955-56 had a nice -PDO

 

(opp) 90-91 and 93-94 had nice -opposite PDO

[url=https://imgbb.com/][img]https://i.ibb.co/GFgDmFs/8.png[/img][/url]

[frd]

 

 

 

[frd]

 

Growing concensus for early winter enthusiasts.   

Of interest, is the forecated opposite state of the MJO versus last year during October, as well as Iceland/UK blocking taking place and a weakened state of the pv.

     

 

 

[StormchaserChuck!]

High global ace

[frd]

 

 

 

 

[StormchaserChuck!]

Programs ending, or nonending 25 years ago, I've never experienced anything like this before. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

Last 7 years, the trend

[StormchaserChuck!]

Only real match to precip pattern/West-STJ loops around Rockies

Is last year

2012

[midatlanticweather]

Painful - but true! 

 

 

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, midatlanticweather said:

Painful - but true! 

 

 

 

That basically says that there was less snow from 2011 to 2020 than there was from 1981 to 1990. That’s it.

When you are doing averages and only using 30 years and doing it in blocks of 10 years, you’re gonna see swings like this. It’s a third of your data. That’s big.

[frd]

Something has broken the horrible 4 year streak, may portend to be a positive moving deeper into the fall for the lower lattitudes.  Still a Nina, but might be atypical in outcomes. 

 

 

 

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

8 minutes ago, frd said:

Something has broken the horrible 4 year streak, may portend to be a positive moving deeper into the fall for the lower lattitudes.  Still a Nina, but might be atypical in outcomes. 

 

 

 

 

Helps add hope to your big thing … cold air in Canada … which I agree with BTW

[frd]

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Helps add hope to your big thing … cold air in Canada … which I agree with BTW

Exactly,  remember last winter, everyone gung-ho about blocking that finally was in real-time. And also rather robust.  

Guess what, Canadian 10 temp means where very warm, and depite the NW flow we had very little meaningful cold to trigger baroclinic feedback/storms and also no deep cold that would be hard to scour out. 

We need arctic cold in my opinion combined with blocking. Some fear this combo leading to cold and dry.  I actually like to play that card because we may score here in the low lands. 

    

 

 

[GramaxRefugee]

1 hour ago, frd said:

Something has broken the horrible 4 year streak, may portend to be a positive moving deeper into the fall for the lower lattitudes.  Still a Nina, but might be atypical in outcomes. 

 

 

 

They seem to be forecast to do it again tonight, for a total of 4, should it verify.

 

[frd]

Question is, whether the weakening really happens and what occurs after it.  Is the pv going to snap back into a tight ball, or does it remain on the weaker side going into December.  

 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

5 hours ago, frd said:

Exactly,  remember last winter, everyone gung-ho about blocking that finally was in real-time. And also rather robust.  

Guess what, Canadian 10 temp means where very warm, and depite the NW flow we had very little meaningful cold to trigger baroclinic feedback/storms and also no deep cold that would be hard to scour out. 

We need arctic cold in my opinion combined with blocking. Some fear this combo leading to cold and dry.  I actually like to play that card because we may score here in the low lands. 

    

 

 

There are degrees between marine Pac and arctic.  Getting a direct arctic air discharge during blocking is difficult because said block usually cuts off cross polar flow also. It’s not just blocking on one side! What we need is for Canada to not be torching. If we need a direct shot of Siberian air to get snow might as well give up. That’s incredibly rare and even more rare that a pattern that produces it also leads to a big snowstorm.  

[frd]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

There are degrees between marine Pac and arctic.  Getting a direct arctic air discharge during blocking is difficult because said block usually cuts off cross polar flow also. It’s not just blocking on one side! What we need is for Canada to not be torching. If we need a direct shot of Siberian air to get snow might as well give up. That’s incredibly rare and even more rare that a pattern that produces it also leads to a big snowstorm.  

I was referring to Canada simply being colder versus torching.  Hence my reference to the Canadian 10 day temperature anomoly. Folks assumed a -4 SD AO last winter  would lead to colder and snow, it didn't. 

[frd]

 

 

Interesting. 

 

 

 

 

 

[WxUSAF]

Pretty classic -PDO signal there