Winter 2021-22

[Steve25]

Just a tidbit I find interesting that I figured I'd throw into the conversation. BWI is in a streak of 5 consecutive winters without recording a month with double digit snow totals. BWI has done that 3 separate times in the 137 years of keeping official records. NEVER has it been done in 6 consecutive winters. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Everything in weather is connected even if those connections aren’t obvious or known. I would think Arctic sea ice would have to play a role but what role I wouldn’t even pretend to know. The extent this year is much higher than it has been in a while. In fact the last three years with sea ice extent as high or higher were fall of 2014, 2013, and 2009.

 

[IronTy]

38 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Everything in weather is connected even if those connections aren’t obvious or known. I would think Arctic sea ice would have to play a role but what role I wouldn’t even pretend to know. The extent this year is much higher than it has been in a while. In fact the last three years with sea ice extent as high or higher were fall of 2014, 2013, and 2009.

 

We really need more analysis like this to walk us back from the ledge.

[WinterWxLuvr]

7 minutes ago, IronTy said:

We really need more analysis like this to walk us back from the ledge.

Lol thanks but I’m not sure I’m qualified to give analysis. Wait. I am sure. I am not qualified lol. I just find things interesting and that one just happened to stick out to me. That coupled with that big ridge north of Alaska that showed up a couple of times when the water was open and then disappeared just as soon as the sea froze over. IMO that couldn’t have been coincidental.

[IronTy]

3 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Lol thanks but I’m not sure I’m qualified to give analysis. Wait. I am sure. I am not qualified lol. I just find things interesting and that one just happened to stick out to me. That coupled with that big ridge north of Alaska that showed up a couple of times when the water was open and then disappeared just as soon as the sea froze over. IMO that couldn’t have been coincidental.

It doesn't matter how much you really know.  As long as you link it to 2009 you're good in my book.  

[StormchaserChuck!]

1 year after a cold February/warm February

[GramaxRefugee]

1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

1 year after a cold February/warm February

 

 

Seems like a weird parameter that I'm not familiar with, but just trying to stay positive... , So for the record....It looks like Feb 2021 was :
-0.8 BWI

-1.0 IAD

-2.2 DCA

[Cobalt]

1 hour ago, GramaxRefugee said:

Seems like a weird parameter that I'm not familiar with, but just trying to stay positive... , So for the record....It looks like Feb 2021 was :
-0.8 BWI

-1.0 IAD

-2.2 DCA

DCA having the highest negative anomaly is pretty odd, especially when considering how lacking their cold mins were. 

[GramaxRefugee]

1 hour ago, Cobalt said:

DCA having the highest negative anomaly is pretty odd, especially when considering how lacking their cold mins were. 

Cobalt is right, especially looking at their lowest claimed temp as 25f.  But, looking at the monthly, only 10 days have positive departure on the avg temp.  Eh, the place is weird.

[frd]

 

I will take this as a positive start.

 

  

 

[frd]

 

 

For December SSW events.

 

 

 

[frd]

  

The first significant drop in the AO might be in the cards for late month.  

Would like to see this actually happen to the degree forecasted and verifify to lend credence of computer modeling of a weak PV in November and December .  

 

 

[StormchaserChuck!]

I don't know, are we really going to have a SSW in December? We have a higher than average chance for -NAO for the Winter, but 2017 and 2018 were record cold in the Stratosphere in December. El Nino/+QBO is perfect, but we are cooling back in the subsurface

[StormchaserChuck!]

More Winter analogs, PDO negative/falling in October, last 3 times in Neutral ENSO

 

[StormchaserChuck!]

2005

cold November

warm December

cold January

warm Feburary

warm March

probably, warm October. 

[WxUSAF]

 

[IronTy]

3 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

2005

cold November

warm December

cold January

warm Feburary

warm March

probably, warm October. 

I remember 2005, it was the first full year moving here from Michigan.  I was all pumped because of noreasters and dreams of annual big snowstorms like I'd always seen on the news as a child.  Those first few years we had some big noreaster rainstorms in the winter and even a few decent snows.  Those were the days.  

[Maestrobjwa]

On 9/21/2021 at 8:44 PM, frd said:

 

 

For December SSW events.

 

 

 

So let's look at how those winters turned out for snow overall, and how those Januarys' looked for snow:        

2018-19: 18.3" Jan: 7.9"

2003-04: 18.3"  Jan: 8.4"              

2001-02: 2.3"  Jan: T                     

2000-01: 8.7"  Jan: 3.7"                

1998-99: 15.2" Jan: 4.0"                

1997-98: 3.2"   Jan: 0.7"               

1987-88: 20.4" Jan: 13.7"              

1968-69: 18.6"  Jan: 0.1"               

1960-61: 46.5" Jan: 14.3"

So do SSWs have any correlation? I'd like to see a full list of winters that had them in January or February as well. But for the December ones it's kinda hard to tell...but no blockbusters others than 60-61 (that epic decade for snow, lol)

[GramaxRefugee]

8 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So let's look at how those winters turned out for snow overall, and how those Januarys' looked for snow:        

2018-19: 18.3" Jan: 7.9"     Jan avg temp 33.5  (-0.8)

2003-04: 18.3"  Jan: 8.4"    Jan avg temp 27.6    (-6.7)    

2001-02: 2.3"  Jan: T           Jan avg temp 39.1     (+4.8)      

2000-01: 8.7"  Jan: 3.7"          Jan avg temp 33.1     (-0.2)  

1998-99: 15.2" Jan: 4.0"         Jan avg temp 35.1    (+0.8)    

1997-98: 3.2"   Jan: 0.7"        Jan avg temp 40.9     (+6.6)   

1987-88: 20.4" Jan: 13.7"      Jan avg temp 28.7      (-5.6)   

1968-69: 18.6"  Jan: 0.1"         Jan avg temp 31.7    (-2.6)   

1960-61: 46.5" Jan: 14.3"       Jan avg temp 27.6  (-6.7)

So do SSWs have any correlation? I'd like to see a full list of winters that had them in January or February as well. But for the December ones it's kinda hard to tell...but no blockbusters others than 60-61 (that epic decade for snow, lol)

I tried to add the January temps to your post. Hard to get excited about that group with some equally large warm departures. Using BWI normal of 34.3. 

Not sure what to make of it otherwise.

edit: Looks like you have to click the expand button to see them all.

[frd]

9 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So let's look at how those winters turned out for snow overall, and how those Januarys' looked for snow:        

2018-19: 18.3" Jan: 7.9"

2003-04: 18.3"  Jan: 8.4"              

2001-02: 2.3"  Jan: T                     

2000-01: 8.7"  Jan: 3.7"                

1998-99: 15.2" Jan: 4.0"                

1997-98: 3.2"   Jan: 0.7"               

1987-88: 20.4" Jan: 13.7"              

1968-69: 18.6"  Jan: 0.1"               

1960-61: 46.5" Jan: 14.3"

So do SSWs have any correlation? I'd like to see a full list of winters that had them in January or February as well. But for the December ones it's kinda hard to tell...but no blockbusters others than 60-61 (that epic decade for snow, lol)

In the end this means nothing.   Just mentioning it.  We are in a new background state as well.    Hard to get excited about any meaningful winter weather since the super El Nino reset.  Even blocking doesn't work anymore.  Less cold air to work with and less baroclinic boundaries .

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, GramaxRefugee said:

I tried to add the January temps to your post. Hard to get excited about that group with some equally large warm departures. Using BWI normal of 34.3. 

Not sure what to make of it otherwise.

edit: Looks like you have to click the expand button to see them all.

Notice the wild disparity with snow in the two years with the low Jan temp.

So much of snow is luck.

[frd]

33 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

Things warming faster and faster. 

[GramaxRefugee]

1 hour ago, frd said:

  Hard to get excited about any meaningful winter weather since the super El Nino reset.  Even blocking doesn't work anymore.  Less cold air to work with and less baroclinic boundaries .

Do you mean the 1998 El Nino? Some of our snowiest winters have been since then. Also our coldest February on record. (2015)  Snowiest winter on record too (2009-10).  

[Maestrobjwa]

18 minutes ago, GramaxRefugee said:

Do you mean the 1998 El Nino? Some of our snowiest winters have been since then. Also our coldest February on record. (2015)  Snowiest winter on record too (2009-10).  

Nah I think he's referring to the other one (2015-16). Things ain't been right since!

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, frd said:

In the end this means nothing.   Just mentioning it.  We are in a new background state as well.    Hard to get excited about any meaningful winter weather since the super El Nino reset.  Even blocking doesn't work anymore.  Less cold air to work with and less baroclinic boundaries .

And that's the problem...folks think I'm jumping off a cliff with the idea that things may be broken for snow chances, but until I see us have an above average winter again, I don't think I'll be convinced that they're not. This is not the 70s...and can we really say we've had this background state before? I'm telling ya...something might be going on.

[psuhoffman]

 

[Maestrobjwa]

37 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

Would be nice to have another go at it...now if we get it for a second winter in a row and it still doesn't work? Sheesh (but I guess even blocking still needs a good cold source!)

[StormchaserChuck!]

+IO cooling may actually support near-average temperature Winter in the Mid-Atlantic (September minus-Nov)

[WEATHER53]

My Winter Outlook for DC area 2021-22

Temps:-0.5 to -2.5.

Snowfall:12-15”

i don’t have a monthly order because too much conflict.

Analog years 1979-80, 1992-93, 2010-11

interesting to note 1979 had a record setting snow around 10/10 so let’s see if we get a cold precip event.  1993 had probably the biggest weather event ever around here March 1993.  We dont give the credit for huge single events like that but do apply 5” credit

We deemphasize ENSO as it’s erratic and it always come down to the cold air source for DC.  We mostly take occurrent events from March  into Sept and look for matching patterns or events and forecast forward.

I remember about 3/4 years ago Isotherm and me both predicted a -5 February and it hit and although I don’t say Feb I do think we have one -4/-5 month.

Thats it and let us know what your outlook is.