IronTy Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Everybody likes a little ACE ACE, grass or gas. Nobody rides for free. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 Top Pacific seasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 2 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: Integrated Kinetic Energy (I think)? Which was ironic because I think Hurricane Ike was considered very high on this scale. Hummm - that could be. Regret I'm drawing a blank on the term I'm thinking about - KE is a possibility. Whenever it came up several years, Andrew was used a a frame of reference. Andrew was very intense (obviously) and one of the benchmarks. However, it was relatively small as hurricanes go with the top wind field covering a relatively small area when it hit S. Miami and plowed through Homestead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 15 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Everybody likes a little ACE We need the AO/NAO region to tap that ACE. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 3 hours ago, mattie g said: We need the AO/NAO region to tap that ACE. It's all about the ACE no treble 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 I'll tell you what, if there's an early start to winter and it gets cold for November and December I'd expect a pretty big natural gas spike. We're already flirting with the highest sustained prices since the GFC, will be interesting to watch electricity and heating prices going into winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 Indian Ocean probably has a perfect schematic too lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 On 9/8/2021 at 5:00 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Everybody likes a little ACE Nina, you looks good, won't you back that ACE up? You's a fine motherlover, won't you back that ACE up? Call me Big Daddy when you back that ACE up Met, who is you playin' wit'? Back that ACE up 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 10, 2021 Share Posted September 10, 2021 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 10, 2021 Share Posted September 10, 2021 Love to get our best winter pattern in November and December when we don’t get major snow regardless. And that pattern isn’t that good anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted September 10, 2021 Share Posted September 10, 2021 22 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: YAY, Now we get get fantasy snow storms on the models by October not December, lets go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted September 10, 2021 Share Posted September 10, 2021 First hint of color showing up around Deep Creek, a few days earlier then I remember last year. I suppose a couple nights in the upper 40's last week and again this week are helping this along. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted September 10, 2021 Share Posted September 10, 2021 1 hour ago, midatlanticweather said: Shades of Nov 2011.. Also a second year Nina coming off of a hot Summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 10, 2021 Share Posted September 10, 2021 13 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Shades of Nov 2011.. Also a second year Nina coming off of a hot Summer. Don't even bring that year up...lol Raging +AO a la 2019-20! Ack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted September 10, 2021 Share Posted September 10, 2021 Actually, it's a lot like 2015, 2016, and 2017 when we saturated into Fall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 10, 2021 Share Posted September 10, 2021 Old Farmer's Almanac prediction actually sounds like a good Nina prediciton...cold and dry here, cold and snowy Midwest & Northeast. Folks say there's no magic formula, but of all the ENSO states...are ninas not the most predictable? I'm still waiting for someone to give me one example other than 95/96 where a Nina didn't do exactly as stated above...I don't understand why past ninas aren't reliable indicators of future ones. The other ENSO states vary--I get that--but ninas seem to be the most consistent in not getting us much snow. The 3 ninas we've had since 2016 have all behaved in a similar way (albeit last winter it was a bit warmer overall) Looking ahead...I'd like to get another shot at it next year to see where the ENSO is...because this year might be toast--although I wouldn't be surprised if we trip into median snowfall (which I'll certainly take over a shutout) a la 2017-18. But as always the snow hole is gonna be tough to watch...but thus ninas go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted September 10, 2021 Share Posted September 10, 2021 I was disappointed that we did not get an El Nino, because the QBO was perfect, 14/14 chance that it would be positive for the Winter back in the Spring, and with an El Nino, that is the best combination for cold and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 10, 2021 Share Posted September 10, 2021 Bringing this over to this thread as well from the Banter thread. 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: A nice upgrade coming to the CMC for the upcoming fall and winter. Implementation expected early next week (9/14). Here's a bit of a summary of the findings based on reanalysis of the parallel vs the current ops. Quote GDPS 7.0.0 is a major upgrade which improve significantly forecast accuracy during evaluations against the previous version GDPS 6.1.0. Most of the improvements are related to a major upgrade of the atmospheric model GEM where physical parametrizations have been revisited in an effort towards the 'unification of the model physics' at the CMC. Indeed, the GDPS and RDPS are now very similar models in terms of the model physics settings, with only minor differences in parameters sensitive to resolution. In addition, the GDPS 7.0.0 features a resolution increase in both vertical and horizontal directions. The sea ice and sea surface temperature (SST) analyses have also been significantly improved. During the two evaluation periods, improvements were seen in all upper-air and surface variables, throughout the forecast lead times but more notably for the first 120 hours with a reduction of 5 to 10 percent of the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). Precipitation is also improved in both seasons of the final cycles across North America. Objective evaluation of tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts showed improvements in TC tracks, frequency and threat scores in GDPS-7.0.0 when compared to GDPS-6.1.0. These improvements are attributed to the major changes in the physical parametrizations of the atmospheric model, in particular the improved parametrization of convective momentum transfer in the deep convection scheme. Finally, objective scores obtained for the parallel run during spring 2019 clearly confirm the conclusion of the performance evaluation of the R and D phase for both upper air and surface evaluations, although the improvement is not as important. Indeed, spring being a transition season, evaluation results are a blend between the differences observed for the winter and summer seasons. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted September 11, 2021 Share Posted September 11, 2021 6 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Old Farmer's Almanac prediction actually sounds like a good Nina prediciton...cold and dry here, cold and snowy Midwest & Northeast. Folks say there's no magic formula, but of all the ENSO states...are ninas not the most predictable? I'm still waiting for someone to give me one example other than 95/96 where a Nina didn't do exactly as stated above...I don't understand why past ninas aren't reliable indicators of future ones. The other ENSO states vary--I get that--but ninas seem to be the most consistent in not getting us much snow. The 3 ninas we've had since 2016 have all behaved in a similar way (albeit last winter it was a bit warmer overall) Looking ahead...I'd like to get another shot at it next year to see where the ENSO is...because this year might be toast--although I wouldn't be surprised if we trip into median snowfall (which I'll certainly take over a shutout) a la 2017-18. But as always the snow hole is gonna be tough to watch...but thus ninas go. Canceling winter already? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted September 11, 2021 Share Posted September 11, 2021 21 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Love to get our best winter pattern in November and December when we don’t get major snow regardless. And that pattern isn’t that good anyway. It can happen...December-2009, #NeverForget Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted September 11, 2021 Share Posted September 11, 2021 10 hours ago, Chris78 said: Canceling winter already? Lol Yeah we've moved on to winter 22-23, somebody needs to start a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted September 12, 2021 Share Posted September 12, 2021 Some of Larry Cosgrove's latest thoughts concerning the upcoming EPIC snow/cold Winter of 2021-2022! https://groups.google.com/g/weatheramerica/c/ADgWeB2FI_E At some point, another large, powerful storm like Ida or Larry is going to crack the subtropical high. I would suspect that such a feature would be derived from the African ITCZ family, with two destination threats: the islands rimming the Caribbean Sea and/or the Eastern Seaboard. Using the model ensemble packages as a guide, the last week in September and the first 20-15 days in October would be the target zone. Given the fact that we keep seeing interaction with frontal structures, rather than a "sweep out" function, I am very concerned for the area from Florida to New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, back into Appalachia. All of those 1950s analogs scaled up in intensity with warmer oceanic and atmospheric regimes may prove quite bothersome for the eastern quarter of North America. Keep your eyes on Russia and the Arctic Circle. I am seeing a tendency for closed low or vortex formation in Siberia. If snow and cold start to pile up in that vicinity, ridging will likely follow around the North Pole. That is a negative Arctic Oscillation (-AO) signature. And if the Equatorial Moisture Axis feeding the current Mexican disturbance holds (like it did in 2007-08, any storms in the percolating jet stream along the middle latitudes is going to get juiced in a hurry. It is too early to make a definitive call for the winter, but I will tell you this: there are many choice ingredients being mixed into the DJFM soup! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted September 12, 2021 Share Posted September 12, 2021 So is winter back on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted September 12, 2021 Share Posted September 12, 2021 Winter looking decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 12, 2021 Share Posted September 12, 2021 11 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Winter looking decent Your outlook should be interesting then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 12, 2021 Share Posted September 12, 2021 On 9/10/2021 at 8:22 PM, Chris78 said: Canceling winter already? Lol I wouldn't say "cancel" as in a 2019-20 redux...just canceling for getting that elusive verified WSW, and the usual Nina heartbreakers northeast (Miller B city) and Midwest...and southeast, lol We could still get some good scenery snow...and eek out enough to get near median...but that's the most we get out of ninas. All else is the snowhole, typically. Listen I'm just going off of 2016-17 & 2017-18 where we saw this. And last year kinda the same (note the Miller B we got just the edge of). Chaos can happen, but it rarely does in a Nina, lol The other ENSO states at least have more possibilities, though the chaos makes NO guarantees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 12, 2021 Share Posted September 12, 2021 On 9/11/2021 at 6:43 AM, IronTy said: Yeah we've moved on to winter 22-23, somebody needs to start a thread. I'm legit tempted to do this...lol Moderators likely wouldn't allow though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 12, 2021 Share Posted September 12, 2021 On 9/10/2021 at 10:23 AM, RIC_WX said: First hint of color showing up around Deep Creek, a few days earlier then I remember last year. I suppose a couple nights in the upper 40's last week and again this week are helping this along. Just got back home after a great weekend there. Night/day weather wise vs home. Definitely noticed the first hints of color but still overwhelmingly green. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted September 12, 2021 Share Posted September 12, 2021 2 hours ago, yoda said: Your outlook should be interesting then 3 main analogs are good but not great. We continue to deemphasize ENSO analoging and increase a little blocking/cold air source Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted September 13, 2021 Share Posted September 13, 2021 Not what we want to see for a -NAO Winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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